#KreabInsights Senior Advisor Simon James on this week's General Election
Kreab London
Kreab London is one of the network’s leading hubs for international reputation management.
After six weeks of campaigning, there has been very little change in the relative polling position between the Conservative and Labour parties. Although both have lost some support, principally to the Reform Party and to the Liberal Democrats, the gap between the Conservatives and Labour is the same as it was in May. This reflects the national picture, but the UK’s first-past-the-post election system means that although support levels are relatively stable nationwide, there have been significant shifts in individual constituencies.
What has changed is that a well-disciplined targeting strategy by all left-of-centre parties has clarified for voters who the challengers are in their specific constituencies. The entry of Nigel Farage as Reform Party Leader has also impacted the Conservative vote across the country. Additionally, the drop in opinion polls for Labour disproportionally affects seats where they are not the challenger to the Conservatives.
As a result, on Thursday we are likely to see Conservative losses that are disproportionate to the national swing against them. Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats have expanded their target list over the weekend, recognising that they are already clearly ahead in their top-priority constituencies, allowing them to reallocate resources.?
Given the scale of the losses the Conservatives are facing, one of the things to look out for is the potential face of the Party leadership in opposition. Many cabinet ministers, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, are facing likely defeat, which may limit the options for new leadership.
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Simon James is an experienced communications professional specialising in public affairs. Originally a scientist, he has worked in public affairs and policy development in the political sphere for over 30 years. He has worked across a wide range of policy issues including transport, energy, healthcare, planning, infrastructure development, defence and engineering. He has also been a Liberal Democrat parliamentary candidate, a councillor and a member of the Congress of the Council of Europe. As cabinet member for Planning and Transport on Kingston Council, Simon successfully steered the development of an energy from waste plant for South West London through the planning system.
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