Kpler gets it right on Tullow Oil’s Ghana production
Tullow Oil’s stock price has fallen ~30% since the company released its latest trading update on the morning of 13 November 2019.
The first reason for the sharp sell-off seems to be that the firm’s newly discovered fields in Guyana (Jethro and Joe) contain a very heavy and sour type of oil. Because of poor oil quality, Tullow Oil is assessing the fields’ commercial viability.
The second reason is poorer performance than planned on the firm’s core assets, the Jubilee and TEN fields in Ghana. Indeed, in its latest trading update, the company decreased its 2019 full year net production forecast from Ghana to 60.5 kbpd, down from 64 kbpd forecasted until now.
On this second point, Kpler’s cargo tracking technology allowed to estimate field production as the entire output from the two projects is exported via two FPSOs.
For Q3, Kpler numbers indicate net exports of 23.1 kbpd of oil from Jubilee and 26.9 kbpd from TEN to Tullow Oil. This is much lower than the previous expected production numbers of 36.6 kbpd for Jubilee and 31.0 kbpd for TEN respectively for H2.
While Tullow Oil did not report Q3 production, it changed its forecast for full year 2019 by 5.5% to 60.5 kbpd, confirming the observed trend.
Tullow Oil’s results are a further confirmation that Kpler allows market professionals to capture production trends and act upon it.
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