KPI Study: When $404,931,879 can mean your product is stagnating- or, a look at the Marvel Cinematic Universe domestic theatrical box-office.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 1 released in August of 2014 to an opening of $94,320,333. Like the first Iron Man film, that figure took the industry by surprise and continued the talk on how robust a product line Marvel Studios is developing. A lot of excitement was built around the release of Vol. 2 of this title which released May 2017 to an even larger opening weekend of $146,510,104. The addition of 267 more theaters (4080 for Vol.1 vs 4347 for Vol.2) and the passage of about 3 years from the release of Vol.1, added $52,189,221 to the opening weekend total.

The final gross for Vol. 1 was $333,172,112. Adjusted for inflation it would have grossed $352,742,658 today. If you add the $52+million increase of the opening weekend, all things being equal, you would expect Vol. 2 to gross:

$352,742,658+$52,189,221 = $404,931,879.

You assume the same audience that saw the first theatrically would come out again, in addition to new fans who saw Vol. 1 on another platform, or heard about the first one. Today , in the third week of July, Vol. 2 is listed as having grossed $386,745,538. Getting over $400 million does not seem a possibility at this point. The trend currently is to close at a figure not much higher than:

$333,172,112+$52,189,221 = $385,361,333.

This number is the increase to the opening weekend added to the unadjusted final gross of Vol. 1. Overall, such figures are not bad, but they are reflecting a stagnation in the growth of the product being produced by Marvel Studios going forward.

The first Iron Man had a final gross that was a multiple of over 3 from its opening weekend. The first Avengers movie had an opening weekend of $204+million and a final gross of $624+million, which also was a multiple over 3. By this analysis , the final gross of Doctor Strange of $232+million was less than a multiple of 3 from its opening weekend of $85+million; it should have crossed $255 million. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.1 managed a multiple higher than 3 for its final gross. Vol. 2 would have to get close to $440 million to be as successful as Vol. 1, all things being equal.

With the numbers involved with these productions and for each forthcoming production, whether they are standalone films or have multiple characters, Marvel Studios needs to understand what is happening. There is a fatigue setting in where it seems not enough new viewers are watching their product, or there are not enough repeat viewings of their product, or a combination of both. This multiple of 3 is the single KPI Marvel Studios should watch for. Take a look at the grosses of all the Marvel films released since the first Iron Man using this multiple and it gets interesting.

Taking a look at the number of tickets sold also reveals this stagnation. If you refer to the average ticket prices published by the theater owners association (NATO) for a given year and divide by the final grosses, you can see the difference. Though not an exact science as distributors do not release figures for admissions, a rough calculation using NATO average ticket prices as a guide shows between the first and second Avengers movies there was a drop of over 10 million tickets sold .

In closing, if Spider-man:Homecoming does not gross at least $350 million (opening weekend $117,027,503), it will not be a "Marvel"-ous success. A solution I can write about another time, insha'Allah.

(Box-office grosses and screen count data sourced from www.the-numbers.com, where data and the movie industry meet.)