Confirmation Bias Kool-Aid

When I was around 15, I saw Gene Simmons and Paul Stanley, from the US rock band, Kiss, on TV talking about success. Gene and Paul were extolling the power of self-belief. They said, something along the lines of,?‘if you really believe in yourself and you focus 100% YOU WILL MAKE IT’.?

So, when my parents enquired, in passing, how my exam revising was going I felt rather justified when I told them, with only a little resignation, that?exams don’t apply to me as I am going to be a rock star.?Because I had to truly believe in it, you see. Revising for my exams would immediately create a chink in this solid armour of belief, so I didn’t allow myself to falter.?

Fast forward a few years, after I’d struggled through my exams - O and A levels, and taking a year off, alone, to write songs…finally coming to the realisation that I was never going to make it…

I spend a fair amount of time on Twitter - have done for a while. My timeline seems to consist of Never Trumper’s / Democrat Resisters (I took a 4-year deep dive into the whole 2016 election cycle and the resulting QAnon conspiracy, Jan 6, nut-job sedition-fest), #filmtwitter types and then other profile’s that are randomly propelled into my timeline by those that I follow who have liked or RT’d posts by other tweeters who are either fishing for compliments (‘I finally plucked up the courage to…’) or others who have recently achieved something and are fishing for congratulatory salutations.?

Both social media strategies are unbelievably successful. If you ever want some sympathy, just write a tweet about your malaise, or if you feel the need for a slap on the back, tell people what you just did! And there are so many of these types of tweet. At least there are in my timeline! Back in my day this was described as attention seeking and boasting, but then you’d also have gotten a slap around the ear if you’d had the audacity to take a posed photo of yourself, let alone publish it afterwards and hope for 'likes'!

Just the other day I was reading one such tweet, that can be summarised briefly as ‘I just started believing in myself finally and, lo-and-behold, I sold my first script - bingo’! ‘Just believe in yourself guys’?being the message - which then looped me back to Gene and Paul of Kiss and my own conned-feeling teenage self. It didn’t work like that for me…

Because, of course, if you’re one of the people who,?coincidentally, started to believe in yourself just as something good happened to you, you would put it down to the sudden change in self-belief status. This also applies to all of that ‘cosmic ordering’, ‘law of attraction’, ‘just ask the universe’ philosophy/system stuff/guff. Those that manifestly visualised winning the lottery or getting that promotion, and then got those things, will be utterly convinced that it was all because they asked the universe for it and then, presumably, hummed insistently for a couple of days while trying to vibrate as much as possible. But what of the people who asked the same thing and didn’t get the pay-out??

This is confirmation bias at work of course. Just because Gene and Paul believed they would make it as rock stars, and then did, made them think that the same could and would work for everyone else.?You just gotta believe! But then again, how could it? There can only be so many rock stars, and most of those these days only have a single or two in them, at best.?

Have you ever wanted to buy a new car and suddenly all you see on the road ahead of you is the model of car you had in mind, or been pregnant and suddenly all you see are pregnant women everywhere? This is the simplest form of confirmation bias there is, and it works every time. Social media echo-chambers are great enhancers of this and I’m sure that is why we are so politically partisan these days - especially in the USA, where broadcast news is shockingly so.

Which brings me to the conclusion that I have, indeed, become very cynical. Which is interesting as I used to hate naysayers and cynics in my own youth. But it’s what I have come to believe. I am an atheist and believe in little other than what is in front of my eyes and what popular science tells us, and I’m even reserving a little doubt for all that too.?

My favourite author, the late John Fowles once wrote, in my favourite novel, The Magus,?“All cynicism masks a failure to cope”. He followed this observation up with?“and to despise all effort is the greatest effort of all.”

But I’m not sure I agree. Cynicism and scepticism, to me, seem more like virtues, although they can leave you feeling rather existentially barren and empty.?Cynicism is described as an inclination to believe that people are motivated purely by self-interest,?and whilst I don’t believe that this is always true, or is true of everyone, ‘virtue signalling’ is the sin of pride shrouded in potential (and probable) hypocrisy and a desire to be seen to be pure of thought and deed.?

So, I’m going off twitter - I seem to be either outraged or eye-rolling these days.?

When it comes to self-belief and the power of positive thought, I’m in no way against it - I’m actually all in favour of it. It can give you an edge that might just mark a significant turning point in your success or in reaching your goals. The law of attraction idea probably has a similar edge in that it forces you to focus on something you want that is tangible. But I see these tactics as marginal gains, nothing more. They are not the complete answers. The rather blunt,?ask and thou shall receive idea, in my view, is ridiculous. Luck has been neatly described as?where preparation and opportunity meet?- and that is a far more realistic assessment.?

And yet so many people now believe that all their wishes will be granted if they ask the universe (or twitter), or simply just believe.?

So, in conclusion, please stop telling us that if only we too could believe in ourselves, just like you did, that we would also be enjoying your incredible success right now. It’s motivating to know that success can happen, and it’s good to know that it can be achieved and that it is still worth aspiring to, but don’t feel like a failure if you have all the belief but things haven’t worked out for you yet in all of your striving and in all of your endeavours.

Remember, not every actor that turned up to Hollywood became a star. It’s unfashionable right now to say that you can still fail, even if you try, but it’s the truth. And it’s best to have your eyes open to that in the long run.?