Know the game you are playing - 4 types of systems that define the rules and outcomes.

If one were to pause, observe and deeply think about it, there are multiple systems at play in the universe. And just being merely cognizant of it, makes a difference to the effort and outcome paradigm (and hence productivity) in a person.

The lowest and commonly prevalent system are deterministic systems.

If you do this, then this will happen.

This is the most artificial system, but this is what most people want. The masses are hoping that everything becomes deterministic.

This is also the space where there is almost zero value creation. You press a button (or series of buttons) and something happens.

The second is probabilistic systems. You go for an interview for eg, the number of roles are limited. Even if you are qualified for the job, getting the job depends on who else shows up for the job, how well you do and they do and relatively what decision the company makes. These sort of things are probabilistic.

You will also notice that there are significant number of things in our lives that are probabilistic - almost everything about building a company is probabilistic (except for the core part). Applying for a grant or funding, hiring people etc.

Then there is the third kind of system - randomness. These are almost third body problems - election outcomes that were predicted to be one but turns out to be another. Sudden change in regulation. This is what any society wants to avoid, but there is always a bit of this that still lingers on.

Then there is the last - chaos. The job of an entrepreneur (atleast one who is pushing for a new business model) is to create order out of chaos. There are no rules here. There are no playbooks or checklists to follow, you have to be light on your feet, adapt, evolve, and improvise with whatever youve gotten. And the core of every business that creates value is chaos. And sometimes a few sparks of that realm spill over into the business as well.

Very early stage companies are almost all chaos fighters. The core team is fundamentally selected on their ability to think and act like the founder, or atleast be a squire and help the founder(s) when they are trying to bring about order

The team that has achieved PMF, starts to bring about an element of probabilistic systems into their flow. The teams hired here are all ones that can compete relatively and win (sales, marketing etc).

A fully scaled company has a outer ring of roles that are so well designed that it feels like its deterministic.

The job of creating order out of chaos is whay creates value. It is the red hot glory hole that warms the rest of the org and gives it meaning. Over time, even chaos starts to feel predictable if you live in it long enough.

Randomness still shows up. It is the angry kitten that pushes things off the shelf for fun. You cant avoid it, but it affects the probabilistic systems and the most.

The minute you can spot what system you are dealing with, you also know if how much cognitive load you need to operate. You also need to ensure that low value workflows become deterministic, not probabilistic and definitely not chaotic. The simple things you need, need not be too complicated. save your energy for the real battles.