Kirill the Thrill is for real

After being selected in the 5th round of the 2015 NHL Draft by the Minnesota Wild, it took six years for Kirill Kaprizov to finally make his debut for the Minnesota Wild. It’s been a long time coming, but the Russian sensation has brought everything that the Wild and their fans could possibly hope for. He’s made a seamless transition over to North American hockey since day one without any major issue.

The now 24-year-old winger played his sixth and final pro season last year with CSKA Moskva in the KHL, where he topped the league in goals (33) and finished third in scoring with 62 points in 57 games. It’s not just the offensive end of the ice where Kaprizov stands out the most, but his hockey sense, puck skills, footwork and his work ethic all have really molded him into who he is as a well-rounded talent.

While most forwards in the NHL are usually identified as either a playmaker or a goal-scorer, Kaprizov has brought both to the Wild, as he’s continued to evolve as a goal-scorer while still making elite level passes and exciting plays to his teammates this season.

Swift Skating

Kevin Weekes of NHL Network put it best when talking about Kaprizov’s skating, saying that he looked like a skiier and a figure skater because of not only how well he controls his edges, but how he’s in command of them constantly as well.

There’s always something exciting to watch with Kaprizov every time he is on the ice for Minnesota, but many have also taken notice of his 10–2 skating style where he can open up his hips (toes of both skates point outwards) in order to add elements of deception to his game.

Kaprizov might not initially look like the fastest player out there on the ice because he lacks top-end speed and explosiveness as someone like Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon have. However, his footwork and edges both make him a threat offensively and allow him to make these elite level plays, mainly so when under pressure. I’d even argue that Kaprizov has some of the best edges in the NHL.

It’s not often we see a player skate like the way Kaprizov does. His elite control of his edges, ability to retain momentum in his edges while picking up speed, the lower body strength he has to be able to generate power, and how consistently he actually utilizes this technique is remarkable to say the least. He is able to generate so much leverage and deception through his mohawks and that allows him to move his body so swiftly with the puck.

It allows him to thrive under tight circumstances as well. For example, a little over a minute into the second video, Kaprizov is able to leverage his skating ability and strength by establishing body positioning and sticking his front foot across his body to not allow Samuel Girard to get to the inside. Kaprizov protects the puck, delays, quickly rotates, and mohawks again to find Ryan Hartman for the goal. An excellent display of skating, strength, and of course skill in that scenario.

Kaprizov has so much mobility which allows him to make plays happen quicker than some players, even in real time!

Offense

It’s no secret that Kaprizov can score goals as he finished his rookie season in Minnesota with 27 of them, but his passing blossomed right from the start of the year. Kaprizov has the ability to distribute the puck through very narrow seams and can create something out of nothing when he has the puck as well. He does an excellent job of finding teammates in dangerous areas within the offensive zone and also brings high level awareness to make these plays happen. He’s smart, he’s deceptive, and he’s constantly aware of where his teammates are in the offensive zone as a playmaker, even when it may not seem like he is.

At every level Kaprizov played at in Russia before he made the jump to the NHL, he always did an excellent job of putting himself in dangerous areas to score both with and without the puck. Sure enough, he did just that even on smaller ice this season in the NHL as well, and he made it look easy. He brought a knack to put himself in positions where his teammates could easily feed him the puck because of him opening up a seam or a passing lane between the dots. That allowed for many dangerous scoring chances to be generated for not only Kaprizov, but Minnesota in general while he was on the ice. The high-end awareness Kaprizov brings in his movement without the puck is almost always intentional, and rarely does that movement happen without purpose.

He can really generate make plays happen effectively as a playmaker in any sort of fashion. He can hook his passes around defenders, has a soft touch on the puck to quickly deliver a touch pass, is a great cross-ice passer, can make short area plays, and even backhand no-look passes at times. He is a threat to do anything whenever and wherever he has the puck within the offensive zone, whether it’s passing or shooting.

Early on in the year it was obviously an adjustment period for Kaprizov, but he still brought the confidence right from the start to get to dangerous areas in the offensive zone and to make good plays. We saw that evolve more as the season went on, and he became even more fun to watch as he adjusted to the speed of the NHL and found consistent chemistry with his linemates. Mats Zuccarello and Kaprizov became a much relied upon duo for the Wild down the stretch as well. Other than Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala was the main finisher for the Wild prior to when Zuccarello returned from injury. Kaprizov also didn’t get much even strength ice time with Fiala either.

However, when Zuccarello returned and formed chemistry with Kaprizov, Zuccarello became that forward who gave Kaprizov the confidence to make extra flashy plays since he brought the ability to finish. He was able to find that consistent chemistry with Kaprizov and they were dominant for the first week or two that they were paired together. Kaprizov and Zuccarello would be able to work off each other well enough to be able to put themselves in the right spots at the right times for one another. They became a much relied upon duo at 5v5 for the Wild and of course down the stretch for them as well like I mentioned before.

According to Evolving Hockey, 71% of Kaprizov’s assists this season were primary assists, 76% of which took place at 5v5. While he was stuck with…Victor Rask…for most of the year which took a slight hit on his underlying offensive numbers, Kaprizov was able to drive play for his line for the most part.

Kaprizov’s even strength numbers also stood out as he ranked 2nd on the Wild in iCF/60 with 16.69, 4th in iHDCF/60, and 2nd in ixG with 1.01. Kaprizov also impressed in other individual categories at 5v5 as he ranked 5th on the Wild in xG/60, 3rd in high danger xG with 2.71, 5th in xG/60 with 0.81, and 2nd in Points/60 with 2.59.

Remember, Kaprizov still was able to maintain nearly a point-per-game rate throughout the season and was still able to drive play singlehandedly a majority of the time as he spent most of his 5v5 ice time with…Victor Rask.

There have also been rumors about the Wild potentially being interested in disgruntled Buffalo Sabres center, Jack Eichel. That is certainly someone who could provide some more center depth for the Wild and would certainly allow Kaprizov to take his game to another level. Just imagine for a second, a 1–2 punch of Eichel and Joel Eriksson Ek, along with Marco Rossi in the mix next season as well? That’s pretty good, and the strides Eriksson Ek took in his game this year should allow him to become a top-six center for Minnesota in the coming seasons.

Solution: Kaprizov on a line with Joel Eriksson Ek

I mentioned above how Kaprizov spent most of his 5v5 ice time with…Victor Rask…and certainly thought that Joel Eriksson Ek should’ve been the ideal center for Kaprizov to play with this year.

Eriksson Ek was the most improved player on the Wild this year, and it was remarkable to see what he was able to do for them down the stretch with the ice time he actually ended up with. He played mostly a middle-six role for the Wild this season while going up against top notch competition and producing elite underlying offensive and defensive numbers.

JEEK produced elite even strength offensive and defensive numbers that were better than 97% and 96% of forwards in the ENTIRE league, all while playing against quality competition that was better than 88% of forwards in the league as well! He really only underwhelmed in one area, primary assists per 60 minutes of play, but other than that he was remarkable and relied upon in every facet of the game. A majority of JEEK’s ice time was spent with Marcus Foligno at 5v5, another elite defensive forward, so that certainly factored into the quality of his linemates. But obviously that’s something you can’t take away from JEEK as he’s improved in every facet of the game alone. He’s shown that he’s capable of driving offense by himself without a ton of support from his teammates and shutting the play down defensively at even strength all while playing against great competition. But this begs the question, why didn’t Eriksson Ek get more ice time himself?

Down the stretch the much relied upon line for the Wild was the third line of Greenway-JEEK-Foligno, a line that excelled defensively (JEEK and Foligno mainly) as a shutdown line but also outperformed offensive expectations. They were an excellent line that Minnesota could rely on for matchup purposes as well and brought their scoring touch throughout the year.

That was the main reason why Eriksson Ek didn’t get the ice time he deserved because that 3rd line was excellent for them when they needed it most. However, JEEK was certainly capable of playing top-line minutes with Kaprizov. No doubt the point totals would’ve certainly increased by playing with Kaprizov as well, not just because of Kaprizov himself, but rather because JEEK would be getting more ice time and getting more time spent in the offensive zone. 56.8% of JEEK’s zone starts at 5v5 originated in the defensive zone, while only 43.2% of his zone starts took place in the offensive zone.

Compared to someone like…Victor Rask…who played most of his 5v5 minutes with Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek brought pace, speed, skill, hockey sense, transitional play and an ability to keep up with teammates on line rushes. Victor Rask didn’t bring much of that and would weigh down the line because of his inability to put himself in good areas all over the ice. JEEK for example, is usually quick to get back on the backcheck and support the puck, and he’s able to put himself in excellent positions to retrieve pucks in case a transition were to happen. He also could push the pace going up ice with his speed, blossomed with his skill and scoring touch up ice and in the offensive zone, but his positional play without the puck worked really well for someone like Kaprizov. Rask’s lack of agility, speed, and overall pace hurt his ability to put himself in good areas, escape from pressure, separate from opponents with the puck, and recover as well.

JEEK and Kaprizov had excellent chemistry for the brief amount of the time that they spent playing together on a line. JEEK also brought the frequent anticipation that Rask struggled to bring to be able to put himself in scoring areas for Kaprizov. Most of their ice time together was spent on the power play, but they showed flashes of chemistry when paired together at even strength as well. If Zuccarello can stay healthy next year and build off of the season he had this year, a top line of Zuccarello-Eriksson Ek-Kaprizov would be the ideal line to have. Or of course if Minnesota ends up making a run at a top-six center via trade or free agency in the summer, that gives the team another option to work with as well.

Calder Trophy Nominee

Kaprizov made marks as he became the first ever Wild player to be nominated for the Calder Trophy, anually awarded to the league’s best rookie each year. Jason Robertson (DAL) and Alex Nedeljkovic (CAR) are also the two other nominees up for the award, but this should be a slam dunk for Kaprizov at this point because of the massive impact he provided for the Wild that allowed them to get back to the playoffs again. The two players that it should come down to at this point will be Kaprizov and Robertson, but who will take home the prize?

Robertson’s even strength offensive numbers were lights out this year, as were Kaprizov’s which was something he continued to build upon and was consistently improving within this area. The difference? Kaprizov provided more overall value in terms of penalty differential and defensive play, which Robertson did not and that ended up hurting his overall value in this case. Both players drove their own lines extremely well at even strength offensively, but I think the argument has been made clear that Kaprizov has been more of an all-around difference maker for the Wild as he was anticipated to be.

I have no doubt that Kaprizov will become the first ever Wild player to win the Calder Trophy, and rightfully so with how much fun he made the Wild to watch throughout this season. He’ll be a star in Minnesota for years to come!

Upcoming RFA

According to CapFriendly, because Kaprizov didn’t play the minimum amount of seasons required for Group 2 RFA status, he is ineligible to receive an offer sheet. That benefits the Wild greatly and relieves some stress off of negotiations for them because other teams are not able to negotiate an offer with Kaprizov. Because of a lack of leverage in Kaprizov’s favor with him not able to sign an offer sheet or file for arbitration, I would expect him to cash in right away. I’d imagine a deal would be around the 5–6 year range as well as 8–8.5 per year or potentially even higher on the dollar value with the way Kaprizov played this season.

I don’t expect this to be a short-term deal either, because Kaprizov is already only 3 years away from being a UFA, which is something that has to be kept in mind. Something that is in the mid-range in terms of the length of Kaprizov’s contract would certainly benefit both sides. The Wild gain some extra time with the star forward while for Kaprizov he’d be able to achieve UFA status at 29–30 on a 5–6 year deal and fully cash in then.

Michael Russo of the Athletic recently reported that the Wild offered an 8x8 contract to Kaprizov. If Kaprizov were to sign that deal, he’d become a UFA at 32 instead which is almost certainly not going to happen, at least I would imagine. Who knows, his play and production could differ greatly at 29–30 compared to 32 in terms of UFA status and it would be harder for him to cash in fully at 32 as well. If there’s anything that would really give Kaprizov some leverage here, a 5–6 year deal should be in his best interest. Something that isn’t too short in terms of length for the Wild but also isn’t too long for Kaprizov either.