Kim Jong Un in Russia

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is en route to Russia, paving the way for a summit with Putin.

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has embarked on a journey to Russia, where he is anticipated to engage in a highly significant meeting with President Vladimir Putin. This meeting has raised Western concerns, particularly regarding the potential for an arms deal that could support Moscow's involvement in the conflict in Ukraine.

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According to North Korea's official news agency, Kim boarded his private train in Pyongyang on Sunday afternoon, accompanied by unspecified members of the country's ruling party, government, and military. The state media has shared photographs of Kim passing honor guards and throngs of civilians bearing national flags and flowers. Additionally, images were released of him waving from his green-and-yellow armored train before its departure from the station. Notably, a group of senior officials, including Cabinet Premier Kim Tok Hun, was present at the station to give Kim a warm send-off.

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While the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) did not specify whether the train had crossed the border, a brief statement on the Kremlin's website confirmed that the visit is taking place at Putin's invitation and will occur "in the coming days." KCNA indicated that the leaders will meet but did not specify the time or location of their meeting. Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, stated that Putin and Kim would lead their respective delegations in talks and might engage in one-on-one discussions if necessary. He also mentioned that Putin would host an official dinner for Kim, with a focus on discussions related to bilateral ties.

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The meeting's venue may potentially be in Vladivostok, an eastern Russian city located about 425 miles (680 kilometers) north of Pyongyang. This city was also the site of Putin and Kim's first meeting in 2019.

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Kim's trip marks his first foreign travel since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to North Korea enforcing strict border controls for over three years to protect its healthcare system. Kim has used his personal train for previous meetings with Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and former US President Donald Trump, symbolizing the enduring legacy of his family's dynastic rule.

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Near the North Korea-Russia border, journalists observed a green train with yellow trim, similar to the one used by Kim for past foreign trips, at a station on the North Korean side of a border river. However, it remained unclear whether Kim was on board the train, which was seen shuttling between the station and the approach to the bridge connecting the two countries, but had not crossed the bridge as of 7 p.m. (1000 GMT).

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Recent intelligence reports from US officials suggested that North Korea and Russia were arranging a leader-level meeting within this month, intensifying their cooperation amidst escalating confrontations with the United States. It is believed that Putin may seek to secure additional supplies of North Korean artillery and ammunition to bolster diminishing reserves, as part of efforts to manage the Ukrainian conflict. Such developments could add pressure on the US and its allies to engage in negotiations as concerns grow over the protracted conflict in Ukraine, despite substantial shipments of advanced weaponry to Ukraine over the past 17 months.

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Adrienne Watson, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, commented on the situation, stating that "arms discussions between Russia and the DPRK are expected to continue during Kim Jong Un's trip to Russia" and urged North Korea to honor its commitments not to provide or sell arms to Russia.

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Matthew Miller, a spokesperson for the State Department, emphasized that the US would closely monitor the meeting and reminded both countries that "any transfer of arms from North Korea to Russia would be a violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions." He also emphasized that the US "will not hesitate to impose new sanctions" in response.

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Analysts have pointed out that North Korea possesses a significant arsenal of artillery shells and rockets based on Soviet designs, which could potentially greatly aid the Russian military. In return, Kim may seek critical energy and food assistance, as well as advanced weaponry technologies, including those related to intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarines, and military reconnaissance satellites.

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There are legitimate concerns that any potential technology transfers from Russia could escalate the threat posed by North Korea's growing arsenal of nuclear weapons and missiles, which are designed to target the US, South Korea, and Japan.

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After a complex history of relations, characterized by periods of both cooperation and tension, Russia and North Korea have been drawing closer, especially since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This bond is driven by Putin's need for support in the ongoing conflict and Kim's desire to strengthen his partnerships with traditional allies, Moscow and Beijing, as part of efforts to end diplomatic isolation and present North Korea as part of a united front against Washington.

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North Korea, while advancing its weapons development during the Ukraine conflict, has consistently placed blame on Washington for the crisis in Ukraine, citing the West's "hegemonic policy" as a justification for Russia's offensive in Ukraine. Notably, North Korea is one of only three nations, alongside Russia and Syria, to recognize the independence of the Russian-backed separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.

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The US has accused North Korea of providing arms to Russia, including artillery shells sold to the Russian mercenary group Wagner. Russian and North Korean officials have denied these claims, but the speculation regarding their military cooperation has increased, particularly after Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's rare visit to North Korea in July.

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Following Shoigu's visit, Kim toured North Korean weapons factories, including a facility producing artillery systems, where he urged workers to accelerate the development and large-scale production of new types of ammunition. Experts believe that Kim's visits to these factories were likely aimed at facilitating the modernization of North Korean weaponry and exploring artillery and other supplies that could potentially be exported to Russia.

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Jon Finer, the chief deputy national security adviser to US President Joe Biden, emphasized the significance of North Korea's role in the context of Russia's efforts to sustain its war efforts, stating that buying weapons from North Korea "may be the best and may be the only option" for Moscow. Finer expressed concerns about the prospect of North Korea potentially selling additional weapons to the Russian military.

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Some analysts argue that a potential meeting between Kim and Putin could be more symbolic in nature than a significant military cooperation agreement. Given Russia's historical reluctance to share its most critical weapon technologies, even with key allies like China, major technology transfers to North Korea for limited war supplies transported via a small rail link between the countries may be unlikely.

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