Killing it online and skipping theatrical? (Part II)
One month ago I posted here the article Killing it online and skipping theatrical? (Part I), which ended this way: "With the available data and these unscientific trends,?could we estimate?what would have happened if?'Turning Red'?and?'The Adam Project'?would have enjoyed a?theatrical release? I will try, but it will be?in the Part II?of this Newsletter content. Stay tuned!"
I use to fulfill my commitments, so here we go!
DATA UPDATE
Between the day I wrote the Part I (August 2) and today, we knew that #TheGrayMan opened at 24 million hours viewed in North America (3-days, July 22-24), making it the second best start of the year to date, matching Disney Streaming 's #Eternals and surpassing #DoctorStrange2 (23.8M), Netflix 's #TheAdamProject (22.7M) and #Sing2 (21.1M). #TurningRed, however, remains topping the ranking with 28.4M hours watched in its streaming debut.
I know TheGrayMan had one week of theatrical exclusivity before it was available online but, since this is a testimonial window, a limited release (no more than 400 sites in the domestic market) and no box office figures have been published, we should consider it a non-theatrical release, as Turning Red and The Adam Project are.
I'm not going to make more theatrical projections about The Gray Man since I have made several in different posts. Here you have the link to the last one, which also redirects you to the previous piece. I will focus, as promised, on Turning Red and The Adam Project.
Regarding Turning Red, during this break Netflix released #TheSeaBeast, which was expected to reach very remarkable viewership numbers but it just accounted for 7.2 million hours watched during its opening frame in the US. Out of the game, then.
So let's start with TURNING RED
When facing a kids and family film from 华特迪士尼公司 and Pixar Animation Studios you know selecting the proper benchmark to make comps and projections won't be easy. It should've been before the pandemic (just picking Pixar precedents and, maybe, some big hits from rival studios), but for the last two years we have seen things that we would never had imagined, such as Disney Animation and Disney-Pixar movies going straight to streaming even when the most of theatres had reopened.
Market conditions have been very changeable since March 2020 until December 2021, when the most of cinemas run at their full capacity, with no health restrictions and with a decreasing reluctancy to go to the movies among the cinematic audience.
Because of all this, I decided to focus on animated (kids & families) films with a regular theatrical run, released from January 1st, 2022, preferably non-franchise movies, with production budgets similar to previous Disney/Pixar films.
These filters made me discard titles like #RayaAndTheLastDragon, #CliffordTheBigRedDog and #Encanto. Finally, I picked Universal Pictures ' #TheBadGuys (released on April 22, 2022) and Walt Disney Animation Studios / Pixar Animation Studios ' #Lightyear (June 17, 2022), which could be considered part of the #ToyStory franchise although it is a spin-off, to form Turning Red's benchmark. The two pictures opened after Turning Red's streaming debut (March 11, 2022) and here you have their most remarkable theatrical data, which I have worked with to make my estimates and projections for Turning Red's hypothetical performance in cinemas.
We have two examples of different behavior at the North American Box Office being the same genre and addressing to the same target (animated pictures for kids and families).
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The most expensive to produce ($200M v $80M, a budget 150% higher), the most recognizable and very well known IP (Disney-Pixar v Universal), the one with the largest number of theatres playing becomes the most front-loaded film with the smallest legs (a lifetime multiplier, 2.34, far below the kids & families pictures' average, including Disney Animation and Pixar productions) and a very poor performance overseas. This is Lightyear.
On the other side, there is The Bad Guys, which opens 53% weaker, averaging 50% less per cinema, but it finishes the domestic run just 18% short than Lightyear in terms of Gross Box Office (GBO), reaching a lifetime multiplier (4.04) 73% stronger (totally according to the genre's standards) and exceeding its competitor's worldwide grosses by 12.5%, generating 61% of total revenue in the international markets.
In addition, Lightyear has collected virtually 100% of its domestic grosses in 48 days, when it becomes available at Disney Streaming . When The Bad Guys reached 48 days playing in cinemas, it had grossed 92% of its final revenue, adding $7.8 more millions until achieving its final numbers. In fact, Universal's title had reduced to just 20% the difference between its accumulated figures and Lightyear's. Although The Bad Guys took 2 more weeks until being digitally available (4k Ultra HD, Blu-Ray and DVD), it had to be when it landed at Peacock on July 1 (71 days of theatrical exclusivity) when its accumulated grosses accounted for 99% of final revenue: 23 days later than Lightyear did.
Under normal circumstances, I would have said that Turning Red could have performed like Lightyear in the opening reaching The Bad Guys' lifetime multiplier. But that wouldn't have been fair since, at the time Turning Red was released, no other animated movie had reached similar numbers (only #RayaAndTheLastDragon, released on March 5, 2021, achieved a better lifetime multiplier, 6.4, but it had opened at $8.5M in 2,045 theatres).
Consequently, I have bet on something intermediate between the two benchmark movies. Here you have the theatrical estimates for Turning Red based on the analysis of the similar films:
When The Bad Guys reached 49 days playing in cinemas (which is the exclusivity that Turning Red enjoyed before landing at Disney+) it had collected 92% of its final grosses. When estimating Turning Red theatrical behavior I have considered a cautious 95%.
Turning Red, performing like this, would've ranked, within the Animated Movies' Universe, as follows:
?? January 1st, 2020 (start year of the pandemic) to date
?? January 1st, 2017 (three pre pandemic years considered) to date
We will all agree that there's no chance to estimate The Adam Project theatrical behavior in this article. To keep my promise to you, there should be a Part III. And there will be.
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