Kicking the Can to Oblivion: Lebanon’s Leaders and Businesses are Sleeping Through the Apocalypse

The Habit of Delaying Disaster

Lebanon is at war, and everyone knows it. But what’s more terrifying is that we’re watching the same catastrophic pattern play out - just as it did during the economic/financial crash of 2019. Instead of tackling problems head-on, the government (do we really have one?), business leaders and even society are once again kicking the can down the road, hoping the storm will pass. This refusal to face reality was deadly before, and now it’s not just deadly - it’s suicidal.

The country’s political elite, instead of sparing no effort to sustain the economy, are sitting idly by, pretending that a miraculous ceasefire will save us all. In the private sector, businesses that are still operational are clinging to a false hope that things will soon return to normal. But how can they? We’ve seen this movie before.

A Country Unprepared for What’s Coming

Before the war erupted in 2023, Lebanon was already a sinking ship. Over 80% of the population lived below the poverty line, and unemployment was estimated at over 30%. Now, war has spread like wildfire, forcing over 1.5 million people from their homes. Thousands of businesses have paused or shut down entirely. Exports have come to a screeching halt, cutting off one of the few remaining lifelines of cash flow.

This isn’t the 33-day war of 2006. It’s worse. Far worse. Every sector is suffocating. Yet businesses, much like the government, are behaving as if this war will end tomorrow, as if recovery is around the corner. If this war drags on for months, even years, as experts predict, what will they do then? Do they even have a plan?

The Danger of Kicking the Can

What we’re witnessing is a collective burying of heads in the sand, pretending that the nightmare outside our windows will pass. But let’s be brutally honest: it won’t. Kicking the can has become a way of life in Lebanon - whether it's dealing with the collapse of the financial sector or now, the devastation of war. It’s a strategy of avoiding responsibility, a mentality that leads only to greater suffering.

In 2019, this approach led to the complete depletion of the country’s reserves and the evaporation of billions in bank deposits. It destroyed businesses, erased jobs, and fueled a mass exodus of Lebanon’s brightest minds. What was once a vibrant entrepreneurial spirit is now a faint memory. And today, as bombs drop, we’re witnessing the same fatal flaw at play - kicking the can down the road, hoping for a miracle that will never come.

The Solutions We’re Not Discussing

Here’s the slap in the face: the war will not end tomorrow. Businesses need to act now if they have any hope of surviving. Waiting for peace isn’t a strategy. It’s a death sentence. Leaders must shift from avoiding reality to confronting it. The focus should be on sustaining cash flow, even at minimal levels. That means cutting costs strategically, negotiating payment terms with creditors, exploring new markets - however limited - and pivoting to war-resilient business models.

Businesses that remain operational must immediately reduce working hours, cut non-essential spending, and find ways to collaborate with other companies to share resources. For example, sectors that can still operate remotely should be expanding those efforts, while those that rely on physical infrastructure must secure supply chains before they are fully blocked. No stone should be left unturned.

Entrepreneurs and business owners who had the resilience to restart after the 2019 collapse must now adopt a new mindset: this war could last a long time. Invest in survival today so there is something left to rebuild tomorrow.

Mindset Shifts: From Dreaming to Acting

It’s time to kill the dream that things will magically improve. Hoping for peace tomorrow is a dangerous illusion. Instead, we must adopt a wartime mentality. What can you do today to ensure that your business, your employees, and your family have a future, no matter how uncertain? In wartime, flexibility is survival. The private sector must lead by example and show the government that waiting for the storm to pass is not an option.

The government, in turn, must stop pretending that the international community will swoop in with billions in aid. That ship has sailed. Lebanon needs practical, immediate action plans to sustain its infrastructure, keep supply chains open, and ensure that critical industries—like agriculture, healthcare, and small-scale manufacturing - can continue to function at even minimal levels.

Existential Questions We Must Ask Now

In times like these, existential questions are no longer theoretical - they are immediate. Business leaders, government officials, and citizens must start asking themselves:

• What will happen when my last dollar runs out?
• How will my business survive if this war lasts for years, not weeks?
• Can I afford to keep dreaming, or should I be acting—right now—to secure even the smallest survival income?
• What happens if our infrastructure collapses completely? How do we prepare for that scenario?

These are not just questions - they are the beginning of a plan. The truth is, this war has already crippled Lebanon’s ability to rebuild. The longer we wait, the more impossible recovery becomes.

Conclusion: No Time Left to Waste

There is no more time to lose. The road ahead is long, dark, and dangerous. Lebanon’s leaders and its private sector must act with the urgency of a nation on the brink. Every minute wasted in hope of a miracle is a minute closer to disaster. There’s no excuse left for inaction. There’s no more room for avoidance.

The question is not if we will recover - because right now, that’s not a guarantee. The question is whether we will have anything left to rebuild once this war finally ends. The time to act is not tomorrow, not next month, but right now.