Kicking the biodiversity can ... where?

Like many of you, I’ve been referring to (and quoting) the WEF Risk Report year on year – using it as a corner stone in the business case narrative for biodiversity and rather gratefully welcoming the acknowledgement (and call to action) of increasing risk of nature-related risk and the fundamental, urgent need for society and our economy to respond (economic models as much as our own corporate and consumer behaviours and responses throughout values chains etc....).? That’s the whole point of the Kunming-Montreal Global Goals for Nature and nature positive, right?

With no fault or criticism at all of the authors (A mammoth and hugely appreciated effort - thank you!), but a serious indictment of our own human fixations, biodiversity and ecosystem collapse has been the can that has once again been kicked down the road from immediate to pending risk … alongside all the related nature-related risks linked in the intractable complex web of interconnectedness between famine and storm events, economic instability and resource capture, loss of biodiversity and food insecurity.

In the 12 years from 2010 to 2022 biodiversity loss rose from the bottom left corner of a likelihood/severity risk graph to the top right-hand corner.? Yes… that is where it belongs.? This year our world has gone slightly mad and whilst it emerges in the 10 year horizon as #2 it needs urgent attention NOW… how do we get the urgency of this message into our thinking and decision making NOW?

And when we see that in 10 years Extreme Weather, Biodiversity Loss and Ecosystem Collapse, Critical change to Earth Systems (A new one for me but a huge one – thank you for articulating this) and Natural Resource Shortages … pretty much one and the same thing? Or at least so closely related that one impacts the other.

Here are a few takeaways from this year's report comparing with a few of the others...

Key Shifts in the Framing of Biodiversity Loss as a Global Risk

1. Early 2010s (2015-2018): Environmental Risks as a Broad Concern

• Context: Climate change, extreme weather, and natural disasters dominated the environmental discourse.
• Biodiversity: Mentioned but not isolated as a top concern. The focus was more on climate impacts rather than ecosystem collapse or species extinction.
• Narrative: Biodiversity loss was perceived as a symptom of larger environmental challenges rather than a distinct, pressing risk.

2. Rising Awareness (2019-2021): Biodiversity Gains Traction

• 2020: Biodiversity started appearing as a long-term threat. The COVID-19 pandemic brought attention to zoonotic diseases, indirectly linking biodiversity health with human security. For the first time in the history of the Global Risks surveys, environmental concerns dominate the top long-term risks by likelihood (3/5 are environmental). Biodiversity loss is ranked 2nd in the global risks by impact and 3rd by likelihood.
• 2021: Reports began emphasising the interdependencies between biodiversity, climate resilience, and economic stability. This period marked a shift toward recognising biodiversity as an enabler of other goals (e.g., carbon sequestration, food systems). However, biodiversity drops to 4th in global risks by impact and 5th by likelihood.

3. Recognition of Risk (2022-2023): Biodiversity in the Top Risks

• 2022: Biodiversity loss climbed higher in the rankings, often tied to ecosystem collapse. It was presented as a long-term, compounding risk, interlinked with other challenges like water scarcity, food insecurity, and extreme weather.
• While its significance grew, biodiversity loss was still framed as a "later" problem, consistently overshadowed by immediate geopolitical or economic risks.
• 2023: The risk of inaction became more pronounced. Reports began including metrics and data that quantified biodiversity loss, but actionable solutions remained vague or aspirational. Biodiversity loss sits at 4th in the long-term risks.

4. Present Trends (2024-2025): Biodiversity Mainstreaming

• 2024: The reports framed biodiversity loss as part of an urgent environmental tipping point, with increasing recognition of irreversible thresholds being crossed. Still, it remained categorised as a long-term concern. The WEF Global Risks Report 2024 ranked biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse as the 18th short-term risk (within 2 years) and 4th long-term risk (within 10 years) - a slight improvement in short-term ranking (from 20th in 2023) suggests a growing recognition of the immediacy of the issue.
• 2025: Biodiversity and ecosystem collapse became interwoven with discussions of systemic risks. However, geopolitical tensions and short-term crises continued to dominate the immediate risk horizon. However, biodiversity risk up to 2nd for long-term risks.

Key Observations:

• Strategic Framing: Biodiversity has consistently been framed as a future problem, not an immediate threat, allowing decision-makers to deprioritise it in favour of economic or geopolitical challenges.
• Policy Gap: While its importance has gained recognition, there’s a lack of enforceable policies, mechanisms, or incentives to act decisively now.
• Economic Narrative: Biodiversity’s role in the economy (e.g., nature-based solutions, ecosystem services) is increasingly discussed, but these arguments often fail to translate into immediate investment or regulatory change.

?2025 Risks

2024 Risks

2023 Risks

and then there is this lovely analysis which has them side by side ... 2012 - 2021 Risks (by Likelihood)

and finally this one .... 2012-2021 Risks (by Impact)