The key to unlocking Labour’s housing mission

Kirsty Buchanan

A former Communications Director at the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government and a Director at strategic consultancy Stonehaven.

There can be few promises that will prove harder for Labour to achieve than its pledge to build 1.5 million homes in this Parliament.

Of all Labour’s missions, this one seems most likely to be dubbed Mission Impossible because it requires the completion of 300,000 new homes a year.? This target was last achieved more than 50 years ago in an age when local authorities were still major house builders.

Labour’s flagship Planning and Infrastructure Bill, unveiled in the King’s Speech, reveals a Government determined to move swiftly and take radical action to achieve its aim.

But the path Labour takes now can either accelerate the change it seeks or slow it down.

Of the 13 major pollsters who used MRP polling to forecast the General Election result, Stonehaven’s model came closest to the result on the night.

Now our data and insights team has turned its attention to exploring what Labour’s house building mission means for constituencies across the country and to determine where Labour should concentrate its efforts to get Britain building again.

To achieve its mission, the Government first needs to decouple voters from the romantic notion that all Green Belt land is somehow ‘green and pleasant’.

Our research shows Labour’s re-framing of ‘poor quality’ Green Belt land as ‘Grey Belt’ is shifting perceptions.

Last December we asked voters how they viewed the statement: ‘Homes should be built wherever they are needed, even if that includes the Green Belt.’

Overall, just 21% of those polled agreed with the statement, our ‘House Building Enthusiasts’.?That figure was dwarfed by our ‘Green Belt Preservers’ who made up more than half the population, at 53%.

But when asked more recently about Labour’s ‘Grey Belt’ building proposals, support for building homes on poor quality Green Belt land doubled to 46% while resistance almost halved to just 27%.

But it will take more than clever re-framing to keep the Government’s mission on track. The ground war over housing developments will be fiercely fought in scores of seats which fell to Labour in its landslide victory.

Our constituency-level polling data reveals only 22% of Green Belt constituencies have populations with majority support for Labour’s ‘Grey Belt’ plan.

And we have identified 57 battleground Labour Green Belt marginals where the Government can expect the greatest level of community opposition – from Hexham in Northumberland to South Dorset on the South Coast.

Labour’s proposals for new towns should also be put on the back burner if they want to get Britain building again quickly.??

The last Prime Minister with bold ambitions for new towns was Gordon Brown.

Within days of becoming Labour leader in 2008, Brown announced plans to build ten eco towns and unveiled his preferred sites.?His vision was dead within months. A victim of the credit crunch, fierce local opposition, and a crisis-hit construction industry.??

Our polling reveals less than a quarter of the electorate, 24%, support the idea of new towns.

There is similar resistance to building on the outskirts of existing communities, with less than a third, 31%, supportive of this idea.

What fuels this is a fear that new towns or edge-of-town developments will bring more cars and traffic onto our roads and result in an unacceptable loss of green space. Some 60% fear new housing will put pressure on local infrastructure and more than half, 53%, are worried about a reduction in green spaces.

But there are ways for Labour to accelerate its house building.??

Building on suitable land in the heart of existing communities attracts the support of 48% of voters, including 55% of our Green Belt Preservers.? But is there enough of this land to meet Labour’s goal?

In 2019, the Centre for Cities identified ‘buildable land’ within a ten-minute walk to train stations that have a 45 minute or less journey time into five major cities: London, Manchester, Birmingham, Bristol and Newcastle.??? This identified land could accommodate more than 1.8 million homes.

Promoting these homes as both affordable to buy and to run will also be critical to Labour’s mission.

Increasing the number of affordable homes for local communities and ensuring these homes were powered by renewable energy to keep bills low emerged as the most important considerations for voters.

Affordable homes and affordable living, created in the heart of existing communities.?That is the key to unlocking Labour’s housing mission.