Key Trends in UK Hospitality: Time-of-Day Data, Market Performance & Price Inflation

Earlier this week I joined The Lock In Pub podcast hosted by Ed Bedington & Nikkie Thatcher , which explored the changing time habits of consumers with many operators seeing customers eating and drinking out earlier and leaving earlier. This was nicely timed with an exciting development from Hospitality Data Insights (HDI) , with our card spending insight capabilities now further enhanced by the addition of time-of-day data. This month’s newsletter includes a look at some of the headlines from this new data, as well as a review of latest hospitality market performance and headline price inflation trends.

Hospitality Sales Breakdown by Time of Day

The HDI Panel tracks the day-by-day, site-by-site, card spending of 10.2 million people, and we’re now able offer enhanced insights through breaking spend down by 30-minute intervals, providing fascinating insights into when customers are engaging with the hospitality sector.

The chart below highlights key trends in how different sectors perform throughout the day. Coffee & Sandwich Shops peak between 12:30-1:30pm, with 75% of sales pre-3pm. QSR, Delivery & Takeaway see an uplift in sales at traditional lunch periods, but it’s the evening between 6-7pm when their sales peak. Restaurants show a similar, but slightly smoother sales pattern, with a more consistent level of sales maintained throughout afternoons. Finally, Pubs & Bars are the sector which sees the most even spread of sales throughout the day, with sales peaking around 7-7:30pm, and seeing a steady drop-off after 8pm.

This headline view of the data shows broad trends, but we can dive much deeper. For example, analysing performance on a site-by-site basis, or exploring how hospitality spend varies across different local markets, such as in specific postcode areas, towns, or cities.

For operators, this data provides the ability to benchmark performance versus named competitors of interest, identifying where headroom exists across different dayparts and weekparts.

If you would like to find out more about this data set, please feel free to get in touch.

Latest UK Hospitality Market Performance

UK Hospitality sales grew 1.7% year-on-year over the 12 weeks ending 28 January 2025, a growth rate which continues to lag the rate of inflation in the economy overall. Sales in the first 4 weeks of 2025 were down 0.3% year-on-year, with the week ending 28 January significantly impacted by Storm éowyn on Friday 24th and Saturday 25th, leading to this week seeing the weakest sales performance across the latest 12 weeks. Delivery has now moved into the top spot in terms of year-on-year performance, and it’s the only sector to achieve growth in January.

As is typical in January, Pubs & Bars and Branded Pub Restaurants share of hospitality sales drops off significantly following Christmas & New Year. However, this has been more pronounced this year, with the final week being heavily impacted by Storm éowyn which had the worst possible timing landing on a Friday and Saturday, key trading days for so much of the sector. Early data for February shows that this somewhat sluggish market performance has continued over the last few weeks….longer days and better weather will undoubtedly be appreciated.

Latest UK Hospitality Price Inflation

Headline inflation numbers as measured by Hospitality Data Insights (HDI) pricing databases have shown a slight increase month-on-month, reversing the trend of inflationary pressures easing that was seen throughout 2024. This mirrors what we’re seeing for the economy more widely, with The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) up by 3.0% in the 12 months to January 2025, up from 2.5% in the 12 months to December 2024.

Inflation in hospitality continues to run ahead of CPI, with the gap versus Grocery pricing on the drinks categories continuing to widen. The chart below shows how overall prices have changed year-on-year, and versus 2 years ago, with Managed Pubs & Bars inflation running at 3.5% and Quick Service Restaurants & Coffee Shops seeing inflation of 4.4% in the latest year.

With UKHospitality estimating that the sector is facing an extra ￡3.4 billion in costs from April, pricing is a hot topic with operators understandably concerned about their ability to take price. A data-led approach can help here, providing clarity on the price sensitivity of individual sites, enabling the optimising of pricing on a site-by-site basis – increasing prices where it makes sense to do so, ensuring that value isn’t being left on the table; whilst adopting a more cautious approach to taking price in sites whose customers are more price sensitive.

The HDI team have more than 70 years of combined pricing experience and know first-hand the challenges of managing pricing in today’s market. If you’d like to explore how HDI can support your pricing strategy for 2025 and beyond, please reach out: [email protected].

Final Thoughts

I hope you’ve found this month’s insights useful as we continue to explore how new data can shape smarter decisions for the hospitality sector. As always, if you have any feedback or ideas for future editions, please feel free to get in touch - I’m always open to suggestions. You can reach me directly at [email protected]. Thanks for reading, and I look forward to hearing from you!

I'm Mark, Business Development Director of Hospitality Data Insights (HDI) , thanks for reading.

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