Key sectors anticipate policy pivots in Trump's second term
As the dust settles on the US presidential election, key sectors and industries are preparing for significant policy shifts under a new Trump presidency that could reshape the regulatory and economic landscape.
President-elect Donald Trump's second term could foster a less restrictive regulatory environment, though his inclination towards tariffs may introduce uncertainty to the economic and inflation outlook.?The financial sector appears optimistic, anticipating benefits from reduced regulations and lower capital requirements. Equity analysts forecast broad gains for bank and other financial industry stocks due to an expected acceleration of loan growth and recovery in bank M&A activity.
A measure that is unlikely to receive support from the incoming administration is the US Labor Department's fiduciary rule targeting junk fees in retirement investment products, as it may be viewed as unnecessary regulation, according to sources interviewed by our analysts.?The rule impacts how retirement products, including certain life insurance and annuity policies, are sold by updating the legal definition of an investment advice fiduciary. Insurance industry trade groups have pushed back on it, arguing that existing regulations are more than adequate to protect consumers.
The outlook for other sectors is mixed. Trump's campaign emphasized deregulatory measures aimed at dismantling President Joe Biden's climate agenda and facilitating energy production. Trade policies for LNG, solar, petrochemicals and other commodities sectors could be altered, while the US oil market will keep an eye on potential changes in sanctions policies.
A second Trump administration and a potential Republican sweep of Congress could present challenges?for renewable energy, battery storage and electric vehicle suppliers that are among the chief beneficiaries of Biden's landmark energy and climate law, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. The initial market reaction supports that view, though analysts caution that the fate of IRA tax credits still might hinge on control of the House.
A new Trump presidency could also result in pivots on key policy issues affecting the technology sector, including the semiconductor industry. Trump has criticized the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act, saying it gave billions of dollars to rich companies. A better strategy, he said, would have been to raise tariffs high enough that companies were forced to build chips domestically.
But even if Trump wanted to, it would be difficult to rescind funds already allocated under the CHIPS Act, according to analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan. In October, a Kagan analysis found that there have already been at least $32.52 billion in announced direct funding incentives from the 2022 law.
Deep Dives
In-depth features looking at the impact of major news developments in key industries.
Financials
Australia's big banks likely to post earnings decline, margin contraction
Three of Australia's largest banks are likely to log single-digit percentage declines in earnings for the year ended Sept. 30 as margins contract.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Mixed earnings results for US community banks in Q3 2024
While more US community banks posted year-over-year earnings per share decreases than increases in the third quarter, a majority posted sequential EPS gains.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Insurance
Financials Research:?US private auto rate increases dip into single digits in 2024
The countrywide calculated average increase for private auto insurance rates in 2024 was 7.2% through Sept. 27, 2024, compared to double-digit increases during the previous two years.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
UK pension risk transfer market to withstand regulator's reinsurance clampdown
The Prudential Regulation Authority has issued new requirements regarding UK pension insurers' use of funded reinsurance.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Real Estate
5 US REITs suspend dividends amid 2024 cuts
Compared to pre-pandemic levels, about 39.4% of publicly traded US equity real estate investment trusts have suspended or lowered their dividends, while 55.1% of REITs are paying equal or higher dividends.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Private Equity
Private equity, venture capital-backed funding rounds down in October
Venture capital deal value in October declined 28.7% year over year to $18.80 billion, while deal count went down to 1,151.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Credit and Markets
US election result favors 'Trump trade' bets as stocks, bond yields move higher
The S&P 500 and US Treasury bond yields moved higher immediately after former President Donald Trump's US election victory, extending trends built on market bets in recent weeks.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Energy and Utilities
US power generators pump the brakes on coal plant retirements
Power generators around the US are slowing down their closures of coal-fired facilities in the face of forecasts for rising demand for electricity.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
DOE official touts gains to boost domestic solar supply chain, manufacturing
Still, the US will not be self-sufficient in solar manufacturing for the foreseeable future, with several key components still sourced largely from abroad, the official said.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Technology, Media and Telecommunications
451 Research: Edge computing providers dream big for the coming wave of AI inferencing
The need for AI inferencing is poised to surge in the next few years, and every edge computing provider wants a piece of that market, from gateway vendors to telecom operators and cloud-adjacent datacenters.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The new frontier for the creator economy
As the digital landscape continues to evolve, the creator economy is becoming a pivotal area of interest, driven by the immense potential of the internet.
Read more on 451alliance.com
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Metals and Mining
Congo seeking new mining investors to counter China's influence
The Democratic Republic of Congo is looking for new investors in its mining industry to reduce reliance on China-based companies, which own some of the country's largest copper and cobalt mines.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The Week in M&A
Asia-Pacific finance sector M&A set for rebound despite Q3 decline
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Deal Profile: Pennsylvania-based Mid Penn Bancorp to acquire William Penn in $127M deal
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M&A Replay: Howard Hanna buys Big Hill; Nautic to acquire Pivot Hotels
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HomeStreet becomes cheapest US bank after regulators block merger with FirstSun
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