A Key Inflation Reading Will Gut-Check the Market
Here's a look at what I'll be watching this week in the markets. A week after Nvidia topped sky-high expectations and took stocks to new highs in what this newsletter told you would likely be a market-moving event, that optimism gets tested by data on the broader economy. Wholesale Inventories reveal how much stuff is waiting to hit shelves, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices release gives insight into how inflation is actually affecting consumers. Supply and demand. Tune in to CNBC Overtime for all the analysis.
Monday, 2/26
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index
The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state factory activity. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month.?
Earnings Before the Bell
DPZ: Domino's Pizza
Tuesday, 2/27
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
Texas Services Sector Outlook
Dallas Fed Services Revenues
Richmond Services Index
Durable Goods Orders
Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.
S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index
The S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index measures the change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.
Earnings Before the Bell
AZO: AutoZone
AMT: American Tower
SJM: The J.M. Smucker Co.
Earnings After the Bell
A: 安捷伦
EXR: Extra Space Storage
FSLR: First Solar
EBAY: eBay
Wednesday, 2/28
Wholesale Inventories
Wholesale Inventories measures the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers.
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PCE Prices
The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices release measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
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GDP
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health.
领英推荐
Earnings Before the Bell
PARA: Paramount Global
Earnings After the Bell
CRM: Salesforce
MNST: Monster Beverage
HPQ: HP
Thursday, 2/29
FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks
Real Personal Consumption
Personal consumption adjusted for inflation, Personal consumption is divided into two key categories: goods and services. The category of "goods" is further broken down into "durable" goods, which are big-ticket items (refrigerators, television sets, cars, mobile phones, etc.) that will last more than three years, and "non-durable" goods that are more transitory (e.g., cosmetics, fuel, clothing, etc.).
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Personal Income
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
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Chicago PMI
The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Chicago region. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector; a reading below indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some help in forecasting the ISM manufacturing PMI.
Earnings Before the Bell
XRAY: Dentsply Sirona
BBWI: Bath & Body Works
BBY: 百思买
Earnings After the Bell
ADSK: 欧特克
NTAP: NetApp
HPE: 惠普企业服务
COO: The Cooper Company
Friday, 3/1
FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Fed Waller Speaks
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.
Ex-McKinsey Partner, Ex-Investment Banking MD, Book Author, Founder of the "Institute for Future Anticipation and Management" and Founder of the "From Average to Great" Initiative
1 年I strongly believe that it is important to focus on the big picture and not individual data pieces. The biggest danger is the next - i.e. the second - inflation shock and the collective unpreparedness of decision makers in politics, central banks and businesses/finance to deal with it (with the notable exception of #warrenbuffett ). It is important to understand for people that inflation does not just come and go. It occurs in waves. We are now at the end of the first inflation wave/shock. Therefore, it is important to prepare for the next inflation wave/shock. The second inflation shocks tend to the most ugly ones. During the 1970s inflation crisis, the second shock occurred in 1973/4 and only Warren Buffett was really prepared for it (between 1973 and 1982 Berkshire Hathaway stock increased by about 900 % while the S+P 500 could not even beat accumulated inflation). For those interested in this topic, here is a short informational YouTube Video I did a few weeks ago. Hope it helps to understand this issue better. https://youtu.be/9QO0qsjXJO4
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1 年Thursday’s PCE reporting will definitely be interesting and very telling on how the Fed will react.