Key graphs of the week, as illustrated by our data dashboards.

Refinery Margins Dashboard

M2 refinery margins in Asia fell by 3c/bbl this week, whilst European margins rose by 49c/bbl, primarily due to the differing strengths of their respective crude grades, as Dubai rose by 24c/bbl, whilst Dated Brent came off by 17c/bbl. Product strength was fairly equal between the continents, although C3 FEI became 1c/bbl cheaper at the same time as C3 NWE rose in price by 5c/bbl, providing another reason for the margins to diverge.

Counterparty Dashboard

Trade houses, majors/NOCs and other players have been significant buyers of the Aug’24 C3 LST/FEI contract in the past three weeks, adding 869kb, 436kb and 610kb to their respective positions. This overwhelmed the 87kb of selling undertaken by funds. Although price action seemed disconnected from counterparty action from 13 June to 21 June, LST/FEI’s rally since then from -$214/mt to -$197/mt has ensured price movements and this significant buying has aligned.

COT Dashboard

The August 3.5% Barge crack has come off from -$7.65/bbl to -$8.65/bbl in the past week, a fairly aggressive fall that has occurred in a week where open interest in the contract has risen by 1.5mb (+7%), following the previous week’s 1.4mb (+7%) increase. Interestingly, despite a neutral 7-day long:short trading split, the August contract’s overall long:short trading split is the longest of all the five most prompt months, sitting at 75:25.

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