Key Facts From the Past Year to Consider in 2017

Looking back at 2016 some #historical #events leap out.

I’d not consider among them the constitutional referendum in #Italy, a dramatic strategic error of Mr #Renzi. Problems of Italy are way deeper and extensively well known – struggling banks assets, high labour costs, incredible level of taxation, and ultimately no GDP growth are just some of the 30-year-old issues Italian governments have not been able to address. An incoherent constitutional reform could have solved none of them.

Coming to #Brexit, the pro-leave vote gained broad coverage across international media and caused a turmoil in British and European Union politics. Yet, I don’t clearly see the advantages for UK to leave the free European market and for EU to lose one of its stronger partners. Maybe I’ll be proved wrong, but it’s likely that UK and EU governments will identify a diplomatic solution, for the Great Britain not to lose its face and for EU not to become even weaker and less determining internationally. Brexit – as well as the never-ending terrorist attacks – proves that Europe is barely able to redefine a reliable strategy for the upcoming years.

Mr #Trump election deserves a few words too. At least, it’s good that we can shortly get to know if the most frightening electoral promises of Mr Trump will come true – from the deportation of illegal workers to the trade war against #China. Hard to predict how Mr Trump economic policy is likely to be, as it still appears undefined. My feeling is that Mr Trump presidency shall be less upsetting as normally expected, on the ground that the President-elect is a newbie in politics (as was Mr #Obama) and it won’t be easy for him to implement all the bizarre and hazardous reforms he’d like to. Also, he’s known as a deal maker – he’d rather work towards spectacular decisions, with little impact on fundamentals of American politics.

Here comes one of the two most important events of 2016 (IMHO, of course).

July-September 2016. the newly elected president of the #Philippines, Mr #Duterte made a dramatic shift as regards Filipinos alliances, taking a swipe at Mr Obama’s #pivot towards #Asia (https://www.wsj.com/…/duterte-throws-a-grenade-in-washington…). The sudden decision of Mr Duterte surprised analysts and foreign secretaries, as ties between China and the Philippines have been weakened over the latest years, due to territorial disputes upon South-Chinese Sea. #America has swiftly lost a long-lasting ally in #South-#East #Asia and its pivot towards Asia – the only clear foreign policy strategy carried out by Mr Obama during his two terms – miserably failed. What’s more, the Philippines decided to strengthen their links with #China, although China – as an emerging global and regional power – is more assertive than the United States and is a gigantic, strong, and powerful bordering country of the Philippines.

Yet, the bold move of Mr Duterte is only the obvious signal of several changes of alliances across South-East Asia. From #Thailand to #Malaysia, most of the #Asian countries are getting closer to China, perceiving it as a reliable and generous business partner. Among world leaders, #President #Xi appears influential, wise and with a clear vision of the role of China as a political and economic power. It’s worth noting that – straight after the election of Mr Trump and with protectionism on the rise in America – President Xi visited several South America nations, promoting business, financial aids, and free trade and increasing the presence and the prestige of China in this area of the world as well.

The other historical event of 2016 is surely the passing away of HM #Bhumibol #Adulyadej, King of Thailand for more than seventy years. Thanks to his guidance and efforts, Thailand has been since the Fifties one of the prominent allies of America in Asia and a leading economic hub for most of the multinational companies in the world. The passing away of such a beloved and wise king – venerated as a semi-God by many Thai people – poses remarkable challenges for the future of Thailand, considering also the shifting political situation. Thailand is currently under a military junta, but – after the approval of a controverted reform of Thai constitution back in August 2016 – free democratic elections are likely to be held by the end of next year. Thus far, anyway, the government of Gen #Prayuth Chan-o-Cha appears to address the concerns of foreign investors in Thailand, by promoting several political reforms (such as Thailand 4.0) aiming to make Thai economy more competitive.

On the top of that, #best #wishes for the #new #year!