Key analysis from the past seven days driven by CEIC's powerful blend of traditional and alternative economic data
Data stories of the week:
Cheaper Exports from China Support Lower Inflation in Asia and Latin America
China’s producer prices dropped by 2.5% year-on-year in January, marking the 16th consecutive month of negative producer inflation. While this makes China’s export goods more competitive globally, the inexpensive exports from China have also aided countries in Asia and Latin America in controlling inflation throughout 2023. This correlation also holds in developed markets. In countries like Japan and Korea, where China plays a significant role as a trading partner, the influx of cheap imports from China has resulted in lower inflation.
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CEIC Nowcast: India's Economy Closed 2023 with Slight Slowdown
India's economy is projected to have slowed down during the calendar Q4 2023 (Q3 FY2024) to 6.9% y/y from 7.6% y/y in the previous quarter, according to CEIC's GDP nowcast. This would be the second consecutive quarter in a row of decelerating economic expansion, estimated ahead of the official release by the Ministry of Statistics' release scheduled for February 29th. However, the nowcast for the current quarter, Q1 2024 (Q4 FY2024), projects substantial rebound by 10.1% y/y.
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EU's Exports to Kyrgyzstan Surge, Signalling Russian Sanctions Evasion
As the world approaches the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, followed by sanctions and the banning of exports to Russia by many Western countries, there has been a notable spike in these exports to other countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), with Kyrgyzstan emerging as the major beneficiary. By the end of 2022, EU exports to Kyrgyzstan had surged by 953% year-over-year. This, coupled with the disproportionate sharp increase of freight carried in the Talas region, bordering Kazakhstan, one of Russia's closest allies, raises concerns of potential sanctions evasion.
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CEIC Nowcast: All Eyes on BoJ, as Inflation in Japan Projected Stable in January
Inflation in Japan is projected to have remained stable in January at 2.6% y/y, matching the December value, according to CEIC's weekly nowcast. However, in the last week of January, the weekly estimation increased to 2.9% and stayed at that level during the following two weeks, signalling that a slowdown in inflation, observed since the January 2023 peak, is yet to prove consistent. The Bank of Japan (BoJ), which holds its next monetary policy meeting in mid-March, is expected to increase the deposit rate at some point this year, which sits in negative territory at -0.1% for almost a decade.
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