Kenya's Road to 5% EV Adoption by 2025

Kenya is at the crossroads of its transport future. To achieve 5% electric vehicle (EV) sales by 2025, the nation would need to introduce approximately 15,000 EVs to the market annually. The country’s 5-year average now sits at just above 700 annually.

As the world pivots away from internal combustion engines (ICE), Kenya’s transition to e-mobility has the potential to reduce fossil fuel dependence, improve air quality, and spur economic growth. However, with current EV sales still under 2%, the journey to zero-emissions transportation demands a reality check, paired with bold action from policymakers, the private sector, and development partners.

Through lessons learned from past technological successes, targeted policy interventions, and mobilising a dynamic private sector, Kenya can carve a leading role in Africa’s e-mobility future.

Kenya’s Tech Transformation: Lessons From the Past

Kenya's reputation as the "Silicon Savannah" is built on its remarkable adoption of transformative technologies. The success stories of mobile money and solar home systems provide a roadmap for scaling electric mobility.

Mobile Money: Bridging the Financial Gap

Launched in 2007, M-Pesa revolutionised financial inclusion, offering accessible digital wallets to a largely unbanked population. By 2023, Kenya boasted 77.3 million registered mobile money accounts, surpassing its population of 51.5 million, with transactions exceeding $66 billion in the first 11 months of 2022. This success was driven by practicality and affordability, as most transactions required only a mobile phone—a tool widely accessible to Kenyans.

Solar Home Systems: Powering the Off-Grid Economy

Kenya’s leadership in deploying solar home systems has transformed energy access for off-grid communities. By 2023, Kenya accounted for 74% of East Africa’s off-grid solar energy sales, with over 1.85 million units sold in six months. Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) financing models, pioneered by companies like M-Kopa, enabled low-income households to adopt clean energy solutions for as little as KSh 50 ($0.39) daily, reducing kerosene reliance and improving living standards.

These examples illustrate key principles for success in a country that is tech-savvy:

• Practical Utility: Addressing specific, everyday challenges to maximise user adoption.
• Affordability: Flexible payment models to lower financial barriers.
• Technological Integration: Leveraging existing infrastructure, such as mobile networks.

The Opportunity in Public and Shared Transport

To meet its ambitious EV goals, Kenya must focus on electrifying public and shared transport, which dominates the country’s modal share. Public transport plays a vital role in urban mobility, creating an ideal testing ground for EV adoption.

Public Transport: A Path to Electrification

In Nairobi, public transport systems like matatus (minibuses) and buses account for 40% of commuter trips, serving millions daily. These systems operate under organised structures, such as Savings and Credit Cooperative Organizations (SACCOs), which make them conducive to investment and regulation. The bodaboda (motorcycle taxi) sector, employing over one million youth and generating KES 219 billion (USD 1.7B) annually, also offers significant electrification potential. With operators spending approximately KES 300 million (USD 2.3M) daily on fuel, transitioning to electric motorcycles could unlock savings, increase disposable income, and promote economic empowerment. Through stimulating the electrification of the public transport sector, public charging infrastructure will follow, paving the way for commercial and private EV users to adopt the technology.?

Environmental and Economic Benefits

The transport sector is a major contributor to urban air pollution in Kenya, linked to approximately 19,000 premature deaths annually. Electrifying public transport could drastically reduce emissions, improve air quality, and enhance public health. Moreover, focusing on high-mileage shared vehicles could justify investments in EV infrastructure, like charging stations, which would eventually benefit private EV owners.

The Role of Policy: Carrots and Sticks

Kenya’s current approach to promoting electric mobility relies on incentives, such as reducing excise duties on EVs from 20% to 10% or removing import duties on locally assembled buses. While these incentives have spurred interest, they remain insufficient without supply-side mandates. Global precedents illustrate the impact of combining incentives with enforceable regulations:

• European Union (EU): Phasing out ICE vehicles by 2035 with strict CO? emission standards.
• United Kingdom: Mandating zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035, supported by grants and tax breaks.
• California, USA: Requiring 35% of new car sales to be zero-emission by 2026, with increasing targets through 2035.

Kenya’s local vehicle assembly plants produce over 11,000 units annually, mostly ICE vehicles. Without mandates to include EVs in their product mix, availability remains limited. Kenya can align industry production with its electrification goals by implementing a data-driven mandate anchored on the country’s 32% emission reduction target for 2030 under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). Incentives such as tax breaks, subsidies, and EV infrastructure investments that support legacy OEMs and new EV entrants would be necessary to transition the existing workforce without turning the incumbents into sector barriers.

Addressing the Challenge of Used ICE Vehicles

Kenya’s reliance on imported used vehicles poses a unique challenge. Approximately 85% of vehicle purchases in Kenya are second-hand imports, many of which are ICE vehicles. As developed nations phase out ICE sales by 2035, these vehicles may flood African markets, tempting buyers with lower upfront costs despite their inefficiencies and ultimately putting pressure on the national treasury to continue draining foreign exchange reserves for fuel import.

The cost of maintaining these vehicles and importing fossil fuels—estimated at $4 billion annually—strains Kenya’s economy. Transitioning to EVs, up to three times more energy-efficient, offers a clear value proposition, reducing operational costs and boosting disposable incomes. The transition also aligns with Kenya’s Vision 2030 aspirations for middle-income status. Access to affordable financing must be boosted for technology suppliers and the consumer market to reach this point.

Private Sector Innovation: The Driving Force of E-Mobility

Kenya’s private sector has demonstrated remarkable agility in advancing e-mobility. As of 2023, the country registered nearly 2,700 electric vehicles, more than double the total of the preceding five years, a testament to the efforts of over 50 e-mobility companies. Notably, two-thirds of these companies focus on two- and three-wheelers, critical urban and rural mobility segments.

Kenya is undeniably a vibrant e-mobility ecosystem. In October 2024, BasiGo secured $41.5 million to expand electric bus deployment across East Africa, while Roam raised $24 million in February 2024 to enhance electric motorcycle and bus production. Collaborations like Greenwheels Africa's partnership with Uber have expanded electric motorcycle fleets from 50 to approximately 500 within a year, facilitating over 700,000 passenger trips and covering over 12 million kilometres. Financial institutions are also contributing; NCBA Bank launched a Ksh2 billion (USD 15M) loan facility in August 2022 to support electric vehicle purchases, offering up to 80% financing. M-KOPA's buy-now-pay-later model and Mogo Auto's financial partnerships make electric motorcycles more accessible.

To sustain this momentum, Kenya’s government should strongly consider:

• Introduce phased import regulations to align with national electrification goals.
• Mandate assemblers and dealers of ICe vehicles to progressively expand EV offerings.
• In line with increased adoption from imports, develop and implement a phased assembly and localisation strategy to boost employment and create economic value in shortening supply chains.

Consumer Readiness: Building a Market Through Public Transport

Kenya’s consumer market is ready to adopt practical and affordable technologies, making public transport electrification a strategic entry point. Given their public service nature, zoned operations, and regulated environments, high-utilization vehicles such as matatus and bodabodas are ripe for the transition.

?Scaling EV adoption in this sector:

• Drastically reduces urban pollution, benefiting public health.
• Drives investments in charging infrastructure, addressing range anxiety for private EV owners.
• Creates new jobs and develops resilience in line with the global shift.

Conclusion: To Charge Forward or Not?

Kenya’s transition to electric mobility represents more than a shift in transportation—it is an opportunity to redefine its economic and environmental trajectory. With a burgeoning private sector, renewable energy potential, and lessons from past technological successes, Kenya is uniquely positioned to lead Africa in e-mobility.

However, achieving this vision requires bold, collaborative action. Policymakers must understand that all automotive players must transition for the opportunity to work, implement supply-side mandates, invest in infrastructure, and create a conducive environment for innovation. The private sector, ICE and EV, must realise that the cake is large enough for all to bring zero emissions solutions in this decade as the world transitions, positioning Kenya as the regional supplier of EV technologies.?

The next 12 months are critical, and Kenya must not lose sight of its leadership as one of the countries proving to the world that the transition will not leave emerging economies behind.?

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