Kenya's Perpetual Political Mode: A Blessing or a Curse for Economic Stability?

In examining the unique political landscape of Kenya, it becomes apparent that the country operates in a perpetual mode of politics. Unlike many of its regional neighbours where predictable power structures revolve around singular dominant political parties and thus have more stable policies in line with those of dominant party. Kenya's democratic system, on the other hand, sustains a climate of constant political maneuvering and perpetually shifting political alliances. In my lifetime I have witnessed alliances between Kenyatta-Moi, Moi-Kibaki, Moi-Uhuru, Raila-Kibaki, Kibaki-Ruto, Raila-Ruto, Kibaki-Uhuru, Uhuru-Ruto, Raila-Uhuru. Despite the lack of change in the actors, each alliance campaigns on an agenda of reform and new solutions for the Kenyan economy. While some argue that this level of democratic engagement is essential for Kenya's progress, I question whether it hampers economic stability and development resulting from a lack of sustained & consistent economic policy & strategy. I reflected on this as it was highlighted to me by a Ugandan friend with the benefit of Kenyan & Ugandan life experiences. This article aims to analyze the implications of Kenya's never-ending politics and the potential trade-offs it presents for the economy and economic policy.

Kenya's Democratic Identity

Kenya has long been recognized as one of Africa's most democratic nations, boasting institutions and systems that enable relative freedom and participation in governance. Kenyans hold these hard-fought democratic structures dear, cherishing their ability to shape political outcomes and influence policy decisions. This deep-rooted commitment to democracy and its constant evolution in a Kenyan context ensures that politics and elections remain at the forefront of public consciousness, perpetuating a continuous cycle of political activity. Is this sustainable though?

Economic Stability in Authoritarian Contexts

In contrast to Kenya, many of her neighbouring countries prioritize stability & economic development over democratic values, leading to prolonged periods of authoritarian rule. These systems, often characterized by tightly controlled power structures and limited political freedoms, generate a degree of predictability that facilitates business operations and relative investor confidence. The governments in these countries can make swift decisions and implement policies without the constraints of democratic accountability. As they look across their borders Kenyans are torn between chastising their democratic shackles or admiring their economic advancements.

Kenya's Unpredictable Power Centers

One of the key challenges faced by Kenyan businesses and citizens is the frequent and unpredictable shifts in power centers and the corresponding shifts in economic policy. 2023's shifts in tax policy and tax strategy attest to this and continue to leave business scratching their heads in uncertainty. Political alliances and configurations constantly change, making it difficult to determine the direction of future policies or the longevity of relationships. This volatility creates apprehension, especially for those seeking stability in an already uncertain global environment. Consequently, it could be argued that Kenya's ever morphing political landscape stifles economic growth and investment.

Trade-Offs: Democracy vs. Stability

The question arises whether Kenyans would be willing to sacrifice some aspects of their hard-fought democracy in exchange for greater economic stability & policy predictability. In neighboring countries such as Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania, governments prioritize peace, stability, and the economy. Citizens have demonstrated their willingness to tolerate limitations on political freedoms as long as there is relative peace and economic prosperity. This has seen, Rwanda & Tanzania in particular, have more cohesive & consistent policy and strategic direction on matters urban planning, national tourism strategy, regional trade, regional infrastructure & national transport strategy, national education policy, mass urban transport, surpassing Kenya which had both a head start and a more robust foundation. However, Kenyans have historically shown they value their democratic structures, freedoms, expression and active political engagement, possibly more than the potential benefits that come with autocratic rule.

The Economy-Politics Nexus

It is crucial to analyze the relationship between political stability and economic performance in Kenya. While political stability contributes to an environment conducive to sustainable economic growth, there are other factors, such as infrastructure development, corruption, and resource management, that also influence economic outcomes. Kenya's complex challenge lies in finding a balance between political engagement & accountability and the necessary stability required for economic progress.

Kenya's perpetual politics mode and vibrant democracy set it apart from many other nations in the region. While it offers opportunities for citizen engagement and accountability, the constant shifting of power centers creates uncertainty for businesses and hinder long-term economic stability. The trade-offs between democracy and autocracy, stability, and predictability must be carefully considered. In the pursuit of long-term, sustainable progress and stability, Kenya must find a delicate balance between cherishing their hard-fought democracy and embracing the necessary economic and political reforms that will secure a prosperous future for all. We can all agree that the status quo continues to be a unsolved conundrum.