Five Themes That Will Shape Your Business in 2022

By Stephen Osomba

It’s that time again that we all gather around with colleagues at work to predict and get ready for the future. Certainly, strategic planning is one of the most critical activities for any discerning business, small, medium, or blue-chip company. However, today’s operating environment has increasingly become more unpredictable, volatile. You can’t really get a handle on anything these days. But still, for you to engage in any meaningful planning, you must at least be able to instinctively scan the ecosystem and identify potential threats as well as opportunities. Although you may not always get it right, it is a great starting point.

At SMD Consulting Associates, together with my colleagues, we had our annual planning meeting where, among other things, we sought to establish how things might turn out in 2022. In our review, we considered all possible issues that may affect our business even in the slightest way. At the end of the session, we came up with five thematic areas that we believe will somewhat impact businesses operating in Kenya. I would love to share them with you, too, if you would allow me. Okay, here we go!

1.??????General Elections

The country is set to hold its general election in August 2022. Already, the politics have reached a fever pitch. Yet, the official campaign period set by Independent Electoral & Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is still four months away. Unfortunately, it so happens that our elections aren’t always peaceful. Often, they end in the fracas. Given the political anxiety that usually comes with the elections, we believe, just like in the past editions, general business activity will slump beginning from around June to sometime in October. It may be longer or shorter, depending on how the country will handle the poll aftermath.

Effectively, it means businesses have around four to five months tops (January to May) to make hay while the sun shines. Thereafter, things will stagnate or go downhill, depending on the campaign activities. As a small business, ensure that you have adequate cash reserves that will see you through the artificial dry spell when everyone will be holding back their money and deals, waiting for the election outcome.

For marketers, it will be difficult to push through promotions as the consumers will mostly be primed to receive political messages. The politicians will be competing for the best advertising spots and given their numbers, it won’t be surprising if costs of media placement go up. In the end, brands may find themselves outspent. Regardless, don’t go dark. Rather, maintain a bare minimum of marketing activities so that your beloved customers don’t forget about you even as they are busy supporting their preferred candidates.

2.??????Inflation

Now, if you are a regular shopper, you may have noticed that prices of essential commodities have spiked considerably in recent times. Cooking oil, for instance, has already increased by approximately 27%. Partly due to the forthcoming general elections, we anticipate that the rate of inflation will also increase significantly. There will be an influx of cash flowing in the economy as politicians try to sway voters. By at end of December 2021, the inflation rate had already hit 6.2%. It will probably rise further as we move closer to the polls. In addition to the elections, other compounding factors include poor rains that have resulted in the low food supply, rising global prices of crude oil and the quantitative easing/stimulus cheques (increase in the money supply) by the Federal Reserve Bank of America.?

With high inflation, businesses and ordinary citizens alike will have to dig deeper into their pockets since more money will be required for the same quantity/quality. Therefore, to manage through the craze, get your business supplies in good time before inflation levels hit the roof. You may also consider adjusting the fees or prices that you charge customers, depending on the nature of your business, to keep up with the rising cost of living.?

3.??????Vaccine Mandates

Are you an anti-vaxxer? Well, you may want to brace yourself. Tough times are coming. Governments around the world are now struggling with a new pandemic. That is vaccine hesitancy, over and above the variants that keep sprouting like a bad weed. The reasons are as varied as the number of anti-vaxxers. Although some arguments are peppered with legitimate concerns like lack of clarity on long term side effects of the vaccines, the majority are largely conspiratorial.

Already, the government has decreed a vaccine mandate for anyone who wants to access in-person public services as well as social amenities. The mandate is largely in effect, even though it has since been declared unlawful by the high court. A few private companies and establishments have also joined the fray in denying access to the unvaccinated. With the COVID-19 virus mutation not showing any signs of respite, stricter measures are likely to be put in place. In Canada and Austria, for example, unvaccinated persons are now required to pay special tax ostensibly to cater for healthcare costs arising from the treatment of the coronavirus.

In effect, business transactions and travel will be a bit complicated this year. You’ll need to show proof of vaccination before engaging in business. As a matter of fact, I recently received a notification email from the procurement department of a multinational company where I’m registered as a supplier communicating their vaccine mandate. Undoubtedly, it will be a mainstream practice before long, though with a lot of resistance from the unvaccinated.

Of all the industries, folks in tourism will bear the greatest brunt of the war between anti-vaxxers and the government vaccine mandates. International travel, either for business or pleasure, is no longer a seamless experience as it used to be in the past. Nowadays, you need to be at least double vaccinated (soon to be triple) and have a negative COVID-19 PCR test result, taken within 96 hours before the travel date. Additionally, other countries still require people to quarantine at their cost on arrival. It is a hot mess. I honestly wouldn’t blame anyone longing for the past. These are the cards we’ve dealt, and we have no choice but to cope. From my standpoint, I believe it's about time that the world accepts that the COVID-19 is not going away and start adapting to the new normal: living with the virus.

4.??????Supply Chain Disruption

If you have been shopping for electronics or cars, you may notice that the prices are quite out of the ordinary. That’s because the world is facing a shortage of computer chips. The disruption caused by the pandemic did not only turn upside down our lives, but it also impeded the flow of goods, thereby seriously impacting global trade. During the early days of the pandemic, the world was technically shut down for a long time. When it was reopened, there was a huge backlog of supplies. Demand has also increased to unprecedented levels.?

Two years since the global economy fully reopened, the supply chain is yet to return to normalcy. Both import and export businesses are experiencing long delays as shipping companies are grappling with excess cargo. This has been worsened by the fact that there are countries that are still closed to the rest of the world, mostly those that had adopted "The Zero COVID-19 Policy". China, Japan, and New Zealand, just to mention a few, are among those not fully accessible. We predict that supply chain problems will persist this year too. So, beware that shipment logistics have changed completely. If you would like to source for business supplies abroad, then place your order in good time to avoid disappointment.

5.??????Hybrid Work

A relatively new working system is now here with us. Today, depending on the nature of work and the liberality of the organization, it is possible and socially acceptable to work from home. Given the advancements in mediated technologies, it is an idea that was long overdue. Before the pandemic, virtually all employers expected all staff members to report to their workstations every single day. Companies assumed that employees will be unproductive while working at home.

But the pandemic proved the naysayers wrong. Several studies done circa 2020 and 2021 show that, in fact, productivity levels have increased. One survey found those working remotely to be 47% more productive. It also led many more people to reflect on their careers, work/life balance, long term goals and working conditions. Many service-oriented organizations have since adapted to the new regime. The few that have stuck to the guns insisting on the old system have witnessed massive resignations with jobseekers now prioritizing remote or, at worst, hybrid work.

That said, companies should review all their roles and determine which positions can be served remotely or at least on a hybrid basis. Indeed, it is a big booster of productivity. You will also be able to cut down costs on office space since some staff members will be working from home, probably on rotational shift work. So, investing in mediated technologies and collaborative tools is something you may want to pay close attention to this year. It is also important to note that as more companies transition to the new order, direct selling will require a rethink and shift in approach. Undoubtedly, it will be much harder to do physical prospecting and pitching.

Final Thoughts

Every new year, we all travel to unchartered territory with uncertainties hanging over our heads. While it is impossible to predict with precision, I believe the above five themes will dominate the year and consequently impact businesses as well as individuals. Therefore, as you plan, it is vital that you put each one of them into consideration so that you are well-prepared. But don’t stop there. Constantly monitor environmental changes and make alterations to your plan accordingly. Remember, we now live in a highly volatile business environment where things change in just a matter of seconds. Have a wonderful year!

Stephen Osomba currently serves as the Lead Partner, Communication & Marketing at SMD Consulting Associates where he helps SME clients deliver value by adjusting the solutions to each company's mission, product, strategy, and industry.