#KenyaDecides2022

In two sentences:?Initial reports suggest yesterday's voting was largely peaceful, and without the widespread allegations of corruption that has marred previous Kenyan elections (touch wood). While we may not know the winner for up to a week, whoever becomes president?must address?many?short-term crises to unlock Kenya's long-term potential.

A changing of the guard

Kenyans?cast their ballots yesterday?for a new president for the first time since 2017. Now, the electoral commission has up to one week to declare a winner.

• To win,?a candidate must receive 50% of the vote, and at least 25% of the vote in 24 of the country’s 47 counties.?
• If no candidate is declared the winner,?a runoff vote will be held within 30 days.

Why the world is watching

Kenya’s elections matter for a few reasons:

• ?Kenya is a regional powerhouse.?Last weekend,?The Economist called Kenya?“[a] beacon of stability and prosperity compared with its five immediate neighbours, Kenya deserves its accolade as the undisputed business and diplomatic hub of east Africa". That means that who leads it, and how they come to power, matters.
• ?Two recent elections turned violent.?In 2007, the BBC reported that ~1,500 people were killed in post-election violence, while estimates suggest at least 100 were killed in 2017. By all accounts, voting yesterday was largely peaceful.

In a further positive sign, the Kenyan Government?chose not to impose restrictions on the media or shut down the internet?in the lead up to the election, contrary to many observers' fears.

The candidates

Incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta is term limited?after serving two terms as President. There a two candidates vying to replace him:

• Raila Odinga -?Odinga has lost five presidential elections, has spent decades in opposition, and has done?multiple stints in prison on political charges. But heading into Tuesday’s vote, Odinga was slightly ahead in polling. If he wins, his running mate Martha Karua would be Kenya’s first female vice president.
• William Ruto?- the current vice president, but notably?not the choice of outgoing president Kenyatta. Ruto has promised to rid Kenya’s politics of corruption and even though he's been vice president for a decade, ran as something of an outsider.

Kenya's potential

Whoever wins Tuesday's elections will inherit a Kenya heading at least partially in the right direction.

1.??A relatively stable democracy.?Military coups and violent protests?dominate western news cycles about Africa, but?as the New York Times noted yesterday, “Kenya has been growing into a stable country with an educated population that is increasingly plugged into the global economy”.

2.??A?model for African development:?Kenya doesn’t have the luxury of vast reserves of oil, gas or minerals, and so has focused on diversifying and modernising?its economy.

• Its vibrant capital Nairobi has incubated a tech scene that?a recent FT survey?showed is home to?six of the top 20 fastest growing companies in Africa,?including the continent’s fastest, Wasoko.

The challenges facing the new president

While there are certainly positive signs, being the President of Kenya?is not a job for the faint-hearted. Whoever is declared the winner will face serious challenges:

1.??Terrorism:?East Africa can tend to slip from the mind when thinking about terrorist hotspots, but?the horrific Westgate Mall attack in 2013?is only one of?many attacks carried out by al-Shabab terrorists in recent years.

2.??Regional instability:?Kenya has troubled neighbours. Ethiopia is embroiled in a bloody civil war, Somalia is a haven for?terrorists, and both Uganda and Rwanda are run by authoritarian-leaning ‘presidents for life’. Preventing those issues from spilling across the border while maintaining constructive ties will be no easy task.

3.??China:?Like so many of his developing country counterparts, President Kenyatta borrowed heavily from China to fund much-need infrastructure projects.?

The problem is,?research conducted last year by Afrobarometer?found that 87% of Kenyans think their government has borrowed too much from China. China’s ‘approval rating’ among Kenyans has also declined 11% since 2014.

• Both candidates promised to address the China issue:?Odinga wants to renegotiate Chinese debt so he can pay for a new subsidy for the poor, while?more controversially, Ruto has promised to deport Chinese workers.

What’s next?

In addition to the challenges above,?Kenya’s next president will have to solve serious and urgent problems?like the skyrocketing price of food staples, ballooning public debt, a devastating drought, and perhaps most importantly, rampant and endemic public corruption.?

As we said, being President of Kenya is not a job for the faint-hearted. But, the fact that the elections appear so far to have?been free-ish, fair-ish, and peaceful-ish is a solid first step for whoever is eventually declared the winner.