Kentucky Primary Election Memo

It's Derby Week in Kentucky! Meanwhile, Kentucky's Primary Election is May 16th. The Run for the Roses is perhaps the only thing that can - momentarily - steal the attention from the Run for the Mansion, and beyond.

All Kentucky statewide office holders are up for election in 2023. One of only three states with this election cycle, all eyes are on Kentucky, particularly the GOP Gubernatorial race.?

The high-stakes GOP primary includes well known names and office holders as well as a few long shot candidates. Meanwhile, for Democrats, incumbent governor Andy Beshear is many lengths ahead of his primary challengers.?

Various experts predict turnout of about 300,000 Republican voters, a significant uptick from the 259,854 GOP primary voters in 2019 and the 214,913 in 2015. Democrats turned out a whopping 394,490 voters in their 2019 Primary Election, a huge jump from the 178,451 casting ballots in 2015.?

With registered Republicans now outnumbering registered Democrats as of last summer, all eyes are on both parties to see how much interest and support each can garner ahead of the November General. The growing Independent faction, now representing 10% of Kentucky voters, makes party turnout all the more important in close General races.

TOP REPUBLICAN CONTENDERS FOR GOVERNOR

(Feat. in KET debate, in order of polling place according to April 2023 Emerson College / Fox 56 poll)

Attorney General Daniel Cameron is the favorite in the crowded field as suggested by polling and political targeting, although the gap has narrowed significantly in recent weeks. Cameron has touted his endorsement from former President Donald Trump and his legal record of fighting for conservative values against current Gov. Andy Beshear. Fundraising has stalled some as Cameron only just recently reached 2nd in terms of campaign funds raised – totaling $1.37 million.?????

Kelly Craft, a national name through her U.S. ambassador posts in Canada and the U.N., has an extensive and well-resourced network at her disposal. Craft’s ability to self-finance has made her a fundraising outlier, allowing her to have ads on TV since last December. Polling shows this has paid off as Craft appears to be closely behind Cameron. With messaging focused on education, the fentanyl crisis, and energy affordability and reliability, Craft is hoping to connect with GOP voters as the race heads down to the wire.?

Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles, also a former state House representative, has built a solid grassroots ground game. Boasting over 240 state and local officials’ endorsements, Quarles’ work horse campaign is reportedly hitting 5,000 to 7,000 doors a week and has visited all 120 counties. Quarles has a hefty cash-on-hand total to propel him into a competitive position.?

Eric Deters is a former attorney, highlighting that unlike others in the race, he is not a career politician. He boasts “freedom caucus” support, routinely criticizing the party establishment. A good distance in the polling separates him and others from the top three candidates, but they could pull votes in a way that significantly impacts the race.

Mayor Alan Keck has not held previous state or federal posts, unlike other major GOP players. Instead his message hones in on local impact, job growth, and small business. After distinguishing himself from the pool with some more moderate stances and a positive style, the dark horse newcomer is looking to finish in the money.?

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES FOR GOVERNOR

Andy Beshear, incumbent Governor, sits on a stockpile of cash, $6.6 million, with the advantage of saving it for the General Election this fall. According to Morning Consult, he is the most popular Democratic Governor in the country. GOP primary candidates are running hard hitting ads in the primary race targeting COVID shutdowns, natural disasters, and more hoping to make a dent in his popularity as Kentuckians decide who among the GOP contenders will face Beshear in November. It's sure to be an expensive battle to the finish line.

Beshear has two primary challengers: Peppy Martin, the 1999 Republican nominee for Governor, and Geoff Young, a perennial candidate most recently for Kentucky's 6th Congressional District.?

DOWN BALLOT RACES:

ATTORNEY GENERAL

There is no primary. The Republican nominee is Russell Coleman, a former U.S. Attorney. The Democratic candidate is state Rep. Pamela Stevenson.

GOP SECRETARY OF STATE

Incumbent Mike Adams is seeking a second term following 2019’s political upset over former Miss America Heather French Henry. Now four years into the position, Adams has garnered widespread acclaim after overseeing multiple elections throughout the Covid pandemic and enacting bipartisan reforms to expand voter access and improve ballot integrity. Just this year, he was named the Chair of the Republican Secretaries of State National Committee.

Adams has two primary opponents: Allen Maricle and Stephen Knipper. Maricle is a former Kentucky State Representative and media manager. Stephen Knipper, once the Republican nominee for Secretary of State in 2015, also primaried against Adams in 2019.

Former State Representative Buddy Wheatley (D-Covington) is Democratic nominee.?

GOP STATE AUDITOR

Current Treasurer Allison Ball, now term-limited, is looking to take over a new constitutional post. The first Republican to serve two terms in the Treasurer’s office, Ball has proven herself a strong candidate after receiving the most votes out of any race the previous two statewide elections.

Derek Petteys, a perennial candidate who in 2020 sought to unseat Congressman Andy Barr, represents the liberty-wing of the GOP. The Lexington business owner faces another uphill battle.

Kimberley Reeder, a Frankfort tax attorney, is the Democratic nominee.?

GOP STATE TREASURER

With Treasurer Allison Ball term limited, OJ Oleka, who served as deputy Kentucky State Treasurer during Ball’s first term, has secured her endorsement among others to succeed her. Oleka's most recent post was as President of the Association of Independent Kentucky Colleges and Universities (AIKCU).?

After an unsuccessful bid for state Senate, Andrew Cooperrider has shifted his sights at statewide office. Touting libertarian bonafides, the Lexington business owner first drew attention after refusing to close during early pandemic stages.

Garrard County Prosecutor Mark Metcalf is looking to move from the courthouse to the Capitol. Alongside decades of legal experience, including as a judge on the US Immigration Court in Miami, Florida.

Michael Bowman of Louisville, who lost to Allison Ball as the Democratic nominee for state treasurer in 2019, is again the nominee.

GOP AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER

State Representative Richard Heath is chair of the House Agriculture Committee in the Kentucky General Assembly. He is seeking to bring his legislative experience to the Kentucky Department of Agriculture.

Jonathan Shell, a former state representative and Kentucky’s first-ever Republican House Majority Floor Leader, is making a return to politics after narrowly losing his re-election bid in 2018. He served as chair of Senate Leader McConnell’s 2020 campaign.

DEMOCRATIC AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER

Sierra Enlow, a first-time candidate, is an economic development consultant seeking to translate her work to promote Kentucky’s farmers.

Mikael Malone, a candidate in name only, will be listed on the ballot but has not published a campaign page nor received any financial support.?

Both are vying to become the first Democrat elected to the Commissioner’s office in over 20 years.