The Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be a duel between a light-footed athlete and a big guy

On Saturday, the?150th Kentucky Derby?will be run at Churchill Downs. The first leg of the American Triple Crown attracts a field of 20 three-year-olds, with Bob Baffert's horses missing, as in the last two editions. Even without them, it's shaping up to be a race that brings together horses of outstanding quality.

Since last year?I?have been following a colt who is the clear favourite for the?Kentucky Derby?(G1, 1m 2f), the bay colt?FIERCENESS. The son of City of Light impressed me with a win on debut, and although he?then?disappointed in his G1 debut, it wasn't entirely his fault. Later on, he triumphed as?easily?as I had expected in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He had a weaker moment this year, too, when he only finished third on his seasonal debut, but in the G1?Florida Derby, he galloped to the front from the start to?easily?draw away from his rivals in the final straight.?

Fierceness won the Florida Derby by 13 ? lengths, and if he shows up at the Kentucky Derby in similar form, he should be the leading win contender. He is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has celebrated victory in recent years with Always Dreaming, with?John Velazquez?in the saddle. He and Todd Pletcher will join forces again on Saturday.

Chad Brown's charge?Sierra Leone?is also pretty classy. The son of Gun Runner has grown a lot, so he tends to roll to the back of the pack in races, but he has managed to win three times from 4 starts. First on?debut,?and?then this year in the G2 Risen Star Stakes and the?G2 Blue Grass Stakes.?That time he started the race at the tail of the field,?from?where the massive bay set up for a long, steady finish in the final third.?From the outside, he?was able to?pass all his rivals and score a confident victory, confirming his class.

Visually, I like Sierra Leone, the most out of all the participants, but he will need plenty of room at the end for his finish, and that's just never certain in a field of 20 horses. He should undoubtedly finish on the board, but the win will depend?greatly?on how much luck sticks to him and jockey?Tyler Gaffalione.

The third favourite to join the party is?Catching Freedom, who, like Sierra Leona, relies on his deathly turn of foot. The son of Constitution has won three of his five starts, including the G2?Louisiana Derby. Brad Cox's charge has the heart of a fighter, but Sierra Leone has already beaten him this year. He can't be written off, but I see him around third-fourth rather than winning.?Flavien Prat?will be in the saddle.

The rest of the field already has odds of 10-1 or more, where the likes of Japan's?Forever Young?(Sakai) are. I?really?liked the son of Real Steel in both the Saudi Derby and the UAE Derby, and this undefeated charge of Yoshita Yahagi has some class; he's a great fighter, but the more I've seen him work at Churchill Downs, the less I like him for the Kentucky Derby. He could easily place, but I'm afraid he's not as good as the best American 3-year-olds. Of course, that same goes for his compatriot, the outsider?T O Password?(Kimura).

There are several horses around 20:1 that I like for each-way bets. One is?Resilience?(Alvarado) in the care of William Mott, who won the G2?Wood Memorial. He's still a big kid, though, and I'm afraid the Kentucky Derby is coming too early for him, and he'll need more time, but I can't deny his talent. I'd also trust?Just Steele?(Asmussen) to place as he's experienced and was a runner-up in the G1?Arkansas Derby. Regarding Honor Marie (Curtis), I was impressed by his exterior and sparkle in the eye.

When it comes to?outsiders, I have a soft spot for Society Man?sired by Good Magic. First, Frankie Dettori is up in the saddle; second, he looks like a horse who does his best whenever he runs. And I appreciate that.

VERDICT:?FIERCENESS?tickles all the boxes.?He?is the leading chance for the?Kentucky Derby. However,?Sierra Leone?is a horse that could trouble him if he has enough room.?Catching Freedom?should be?in there?somewhere, but the rest is wide open. I think?Resilience?has a good shot,?Just Steel?could also place, and I'm very excited about?Honor Marie, who likes like?a great?long-shot for the Kentucky Derby.

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