Kentucky Derby 2021 by Mark Shrager

I usually begin my Kentucky Derby analyses by lamenting the 20-horse fields that annually defeat the hopes of any and all entrants not endowed with early speed. And I guess I’ve just done it again. 

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Mark Shrager and Diane Crump team up to tell the inspiring story of the first woman to ride in the Kentucky Derby, in Diane Crump: A Horse-Racing Pioneer’s Life in the Saddle, now available at Amazon.com and other on-line booksellers, and in a bookstore near you.

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For the better part of a decade now, oversized, stretch-run-clogging fields have been the decisive element in determining the outcome of the Run for the Roses (the next most important has been the quality of the horses). In the 2021 running, it will again be the most critical of the six factors I consider in separating the serious Derby contenders from the pretenders. Those six factors are:

1.     Speed. Since California Chrome in 2014, every colt that’s passed under the wire first in the Derby has been in front or close to the lead during the race’s early stages. That’s seven consecutive victorious front-runners or near front-runners (including Maximum Security, which went wire-to-wire in 2019, then was disqualified). Tactical early speed, as usual, will be the key.

2.     Class. A serious Derby contender should have proven its class with a victory or near-miss in a major Grade 1 or Grade 2 prep race, or by earning one or more competitive Beyer Speed Ratings. For purposes of this article, let’s demand a 95 or higher (I know, there’s not much difference between running a 95 and running a 94, but we need to set the bar somewhere). If a colt hasn’t managed a 95 by the first Saturday in May, it probably isn’t a contender.

3.     Endurance. A potential Derby winner should have been running hard at the end of its final prep. Just hanging on, or worse, losing ground, is a substantial negative.

4.     Discipline. By this, I mean the ability to avoid an early speed duel. Horses that demand the early lead are likely to fall by the wayside when the real running begins.

5.     Support from the stable. Runners that have been racing at longshot odds worry me. If a horse’s own stable doesn’t support it at the betting windows, why would I want to?

6.     Other. Sometimes a runner qualifies under each of the above factors, but you know something about it that seems too important to overlook. For me, Known Agenda is an “Other” elimination in 2021. See below.

With these in mind, let’s see which Derby starters can be readily eliminated. I’ve found a batch of them: 

Super Stock. Never a Beyer above 92, odds in last two races were 12-to-1 and 40-to-1

Like the King. No wins above Grade 3, best Beyer is an 86.

Brooklyn Strong. Ability to keep up early is suspect; in five lifetime starts has never been the betting favorite.

Known Agenda. The Todd Pletcher trainee will receive considerable support at the betting windows, but he’s never run better than a 94 and he’s a bit lacking in early speed. Also – here’s the “Other” factor – his Florida Derby triumph was significantly aided by the horrible racing luck that befell wagering favorite Greatest Honour. Known Agenda’s #1 post position won’t help, either.

Bourbonic – No speed, no Beyer above 89. Was a shocking 72-to-1 winner of the Wood Memorial, with a glacial 1:54 2/5 clocking. Trainer Todd Pletcher seems his only plus.

Medina Spirit – Will be a popular wagering choice due to the Bob Baffert connection, but seems unlikely. Surrendered nearly two lengths to Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby’s final furlong, and was outrun by Life Is Good from the opening strides of the San Felipe. Has lost ground during the stretch drives of his last four races.

Midnight Bourbon – Led early in the Louisiana Derby, then faded. Look for a repeat performance in the Run for the Roses. 

Highly Motivated – Set a laggardly early pace in the Blue Grass, then succumbed in the closing strides to Essential Quality. Chad Brown is a great trainer, but Highly Motivated seems iffy at ten furlongs. 

Soup and Sandwich – Another likely to challenge early, fade late. Was 12-to-1 in the Florida Derby.

Dynamic One – Not enough speed, 89 top Beyer. Was 15-to-1 in the Wood Memorial. Pletcher trainee likely to be overbet.

Sainthood – Pletcher’s fourth starter lacks early speed and stable support. Was 10-to-1 in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks race.

Helium, Hidden Stash, O Besos, King Fury and Keepmeinmind – Late kickers all, featuring low Beyers, previous-race boxcar odds, or both. They don’t fit the mold of the modern-day Kentucky Derby winner.

There. With sixteen runners instantly relegated to the also-rans, we can now concentrate on the four with the most likelihood of posing in the Churchill Downs winner’s circle. In reverse order of preference, I view them as follows:

4. Mandaloun – True, he faded badly in the Louisiana Derby stretch run, but he’d won going away in the 9-furlong Risen Star Stakes five weeks earlier. Draw a line through the inexplicable loss, and he’s 3-for-4, with a 98 top Beyer earned in a mile-and-an-eighth Grade 2 stakes. He’s shown decent tactical speed, and gone postward as the heavy favorite in every start. Despite the Louisiana debacle, he’ll have a place on my exacta, trifecta and superfecta tickets.

3. Hot Rod Charlie – Helped set a moderate pace before pulling away dramatically to win the Louisiana Derby. Proved his class by nearly upsetting Essential Quality at 94-to-1 odds in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. A Hot Rod Charlie Derby victory would be anything but a shock.

2. Essential Quality – With five wins in five starts, the Derby favorite checks all the boxes, and trainer Brad Cox and rider Luis Saez are masters at their crafts. With all due respect for Essential Quality’s sterling record, however, there’s another undefeated Derby starter I like just a little more. 

1. Rock Your World (pictured)– The close-up running style is exactly what we’re looking for, and he’s accelerated away from his rivals when jockeys Umberto Rispoli and Joel Rosario have gone to the afterburners. With a pedigree replete with distance influences, he should relish the Derby’s demanding mile-and-a-quarter. The Santa Anita Derby winner’s number will be atop all of my exacta, trifecta and superfecta tickets.

It should be a great Derby! Best of luck to you all! Go, Rock Your World!!!