Keeping Up With Elections, All Eyes on Rafah, Burkina Faso’s Forgotten Crisis, "Breaking News: Trump Found Guilty"
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Join us as we dive through some of the events that made it to the headlines in May and June! From elections in several countries to humanitarian crises, I have to admit this month’s newsletter might be on the longer side — not for nothing, though, this June has proven itself to be one of the most eventful months since we started writing Your Monthly Briefing (very much to my delight...).
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Keeping Up With Elections
In our first 2024 Your Monthly Briefing issue we advanced that 2024 would be a busy year. Not because we unlocked clairvoyance powers, but because this year 60 countries and four billion people would head to the polls in the biggest electoral year in history.?
“Claudia Sheinbaum, Presidenta”: Mexico Elects Its First Female President
“For the first time in the 200 years of the [Mexican] Republic, I will become the first woman president of Mexico,” cheered Claudia Sheinbaum in her victory speech as she won the elections with around 59,35% of the vote, according to Mexico's electoral authority preliminary results. This is not, however, the first time that the politician earned the key mark of “first”: she was also the first woman to become Mexico City’s mayor in 2018, a post she held until 2023, when she stepped down to run for president.
BBC reported that Sheinbaum, a former energy scientist, has promised continuity, saying that she will continue to build on the “advances” made by López Obrador, further building on welfare programmes. Indeed, in the economic realm, she has assured her government would be fiscally responsible and respect the autonomy of the central bank, but Sheinbaum also believes the government has a strong role to play in addressing economic inequality and providing a sturdy social safety net. As some have pointed out, during her mandate she will have to balance promises to increase popular welfare policies while inheriting a hefty budget deficit and low economic growth rates.
Another challenge Mexico’s first female president will have to face is criminality and impunity culture. While on the campaigning track, Sheinbaum advanced that she will not tackle the issue through an iron fist, wars, or authoritarianism, but instead will focus on the roots of the violence and continue moving toward zero impunity, promising to invest in welfare programmes to prevent poor young Mexicans from being recruited by criminal groups.
As Mexico made history becoming the first nation in North America to elect a female president, Edelmira Montiel, 87, in conversation with Reuters reminisced that women could not vote before 1953. Far from 1953’s circumstances, Mexico has become a world leader when it comes to gender equality in elected offices, a position it cemented in 2019 with a constitutional reform. Indeed, as Viri Ríos highlights in a piece for Time, “[t]he empowerment of women in Mexican politics did not occur haphazardly. It stemmed from a deliberate, albeit gradual, construction of a legal framework fostering gender parity—most notably through mandatory gender quotas.” In 1996, a law was passed recommending that at least 30% candidates should be female; in 2002, a congress with 84% male representatives made it mandatory. Since 2011, Mexico has gradually increased its share of congresswomen with the number of female governors also increasing as Mexican electoral authorities mandated that more than half or each party’s gubernatorial candidates be female.
Still, as many have highlighted, despite these achievements, being a woman in Mexico is not easy. Women face terrifying femicide rates, with around 10 women murdered every day and at least one woman disappearing every hour. Women earn 16% less than men, and the gender gap in the labour force is one of the highest in Latin America. In a country where 90% of its citizens hold negative biases against women, Sheinbaum? may perhaps face challenges as a politician specifically for her gender and support is likely far from being unconditional, especially if she does not deliver as a President.?
Modi’s Underwhelming Victory
2,600 registered political parties, ￡12bn, 18 million first-time voters, and 15 million people to oversee the operation. As 969 million eligible voters were about to head the polls — more than 10% of the world’s population, India’s colossal electoral machine was starting to grease. Beginning in April and finishing in June, after seven different election phases, official results from India’s Election Commission announced a National Democratic Alliance (NDA) victory with 294 seats, more than the 272 seats needed to secure a majority but far fewer than had been expected. The opposition INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) coalition itself had secured a total of 232 seats.
These results mean that for the first time since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept to power in 2014, it did not secure a majority on its own, with its 240 seats being far fewer than the record 303 it won in the 2019 election. Thus, while technically being the winners of the elections, the significant loss of seats for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party and the failure of obtaining the target of 400 coalition seats make the victory look like an under-achievement, writes BBC’s India Correspondent Soutik Biswas.?
PM Modi’s win sets him as the second Indian leader who has retained power for a third term, with his supporters attributing it to his delivery on key manifesto promises and “a record of stable governance, the appeal of continuity, efficient welfare programmes, and the perception that he has enhanced India's global image.”? However, the election results put him in a weaker position: unlike 2014 and 2019, the PM now depends on the support of key allies and his party will have to adopt a more consultative and deliberative approach. For now, as reported by The Guardian, parties in the NDA have pledged their support to Modi and backed his return as prime minister for a third term.
While many had seen the BJP’s position as unrivalled, owing to Modi’s personal popularity and the concentration of power that has taken place under his watch, accounts on The Guardian, Vox, and BBC point to a host of factors to explain the BJP results. Indeed, experts highlight unemployment, inflation, wealth distribution and growing inequality, the decline of liberal democracy, and a controversial army recruitment reform as explanations for the BJP’s electoral results. The party’s most damaging losses came from critical states such as Uttar Pradesh and poorer, rural, working-class areas where farmers, lower-caste communities and Dalits turned away from PM Modi in droves. Indeed, Zack Beauchamp highlights in a piece for Vox the alienation of Dalits and Muslim voters in the face of Modi’s Hindu nationalist rhetoric.
As Pratap Bhanu Mehta, a political commentator, observes in The Indian Express “Today, [PM Modi] is just another politician, cut to size by the people.” While few had believed that India’s democracy was still resilient enough to stand up against Modi, we can draft clear lessons from the country’s latest elections: even popular authoritarians can overreach and tactical innovation from the opposition matters even in an unfair electoral context, argues Zack Beauchamp.
South Africa Heads for Coalition Government
The African National Congress (ANC), the party of South Africa’s first black President, lost its well-rounded parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994: out of the National Assembly’s 400 seats, it won 159, down from its previously held 230. On the contrary, former President Jacob Zuma emerges as the biggest victor of the general elections as his new breakaway uMkhonto we Sizwe Party (MK) appears poised for major gains at the expense of the country’s governing ANC.
As results rolled out and sank in headlines, some analysts have drawn comparisons between the ANC loss and other liberation movements across the continent. Analysts Sandile Swana and Imraan Buccus in conversation with Al Jazeera observed that the ANC had joined other liberation movements, such as in Kenya, Zambia, Namibia, and Zimbabwe, that were punished for failing to deliver on their liberation promises.
As Alexis Akwagyiram writes for The Guardian, South Africa’s government has had a lot to answer for. The country’s economy has been run into the ground, unemployment has become rampant, rolling electricity blackouts have ignited frustration and strangled businesses, inequality levels are high, violent crime has become pervasive in some neighbourhoods, and access to clean water has become harder in poorer areas. Not only that, but Akwagyiram points out to South Africa having been a de facto one-party state for the past 30 years as a cause for wide-spread corruption in the country.
In a nutshell, as a “born-free” generation feels economically disenfranchised, loyalty for the ANC has been thrown out of the window and citizens have voted in a move to hold its government accountable. The election results, however, can open a new political path in which a coalition government will give other groups the chance to impose checks and balances on the ANC and parties do not take its electorate for granted.
The ANC has been holding meetings to discuss coalition possibilities, as ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula states that “[t]he ANC is committed to the formation of a government that reflects the will of the people. That is stable, and it can govern effectively.” Among the coalition options, we find a ANC-Democratic Alliance? (DA, traditionally its main opponent) deal, with the DA announcing that it would begin talks with the ANC. Other options include an ANC, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and MK Party coalition, perhaps this one the least favourite for business leaders and investors, who have expressed wariness at the possibility of an ANC-EFF coalition due to EFF’s leftist policies. The IFP (Inkatha Freedom Party), the country’s fifth-largest party, has shown openness to talks with the ANC. Overall, though, some argue that stitching together an ANC-DA coalition will not be easy, while others insightfully observe that ultimately a coalition government won’t be painless, as coalition governments can fall apart easily. As Alexis Akwagyiram writes, “South Africa enters uncharted territory.”?
EU Parliamentary Elections, (Un)surprising right-wing victory
“Europe's conservatives are ecstatic,” write Aitor Hernández-Morales and Hanne Cokelaere for Politico. The party had won a total of 190 seats at the European Parliament. Their victory, however, surely did not come as a surprise, with polls heralding for months an European People's Party (EPP) win. No doubt, in the face of such results, for the next five years the EU agenda will tilt to the right.
The centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) were able to remain stable thanks to results in Spain and Italy, while Renew Europe and the Greens recorded the biggest losses, as they experienced substantial losses from the French and German delegations. On the opposite end, far-right parties were one of the big winners of the June 6-9 electoral period. As polls predicted — and many feared — far-right forces made major gains across the bloc, with the National Rally and the Brothers of Italy soaring in France and Italy. In Germany, the Alternative for Democracy (AfD) emerged as the second strongest party.?
Now, the Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the Identity and Democracy (ID) groups will control 131 seats in the chamber — this without? counting AfD, Orbán’s Fidesz, Poland's Confederation party, or Bulgaria's Revival party seats. Just a few days after the D-Day anniversary, the Union elected a Parliament in which if the far-right were to form a single group, it would be the second largest force in Parliament. While the rivalries and disagreements within its ranks make the scenario unlikely, the far-right will now have a bigger agenda setting power during the next few years.
As The Economist points out, “at the previous election in 2019, liberals also feared a shift to the right. But although the number of right-wing MEPs grew, so did the tally of those belonging to the most pro-EU parties. Since then, however, the effects of the covid-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine and in the Middle East, and renewed worries about immigration have led to a surge in support for right-wingers in some member states.” Who were far-right parties able to seduce this time? Unlike 2019, when young voters rallied behind the Greens, as Albena Azmanova notes in The Guardian, we are observing “the first signs of a populist insurrection of the young.” In both European and national elections, albeit with different degrees among countries, support for far-right parties has overall increased across voters under 30 in Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Belgium. This, she argues, would be the result of the neglect of the youth’s anxieties and the emergence of a novel concern among this group: economic uncertainty.
All Eyes On Rafah: Never Again, Yet Here We Are
Another generation witnesses an impotent international society in the face of genocide. Israel once again crosses the US’ metamorphic “red lines” and defies the International Court of Justice (ICJ) as it advances in its offensive in Rafah, where 1.5 million displaced Palestinians have been taking refuge.
International outcry exploded after on May 26 Israel conducted an offensive against an encampment of makeshift shelters in Tal as-Sultan, north Rafah. The world watched how “displaced Palestinians were forced to dig through smouldering remains with their bare hands — looking for bodies, or injured people, or in some cases, a few scraps of food they could salvage” after, according to the Gaza Government Media Office, Israel dropped seven 900 kg bombs as well as missiles on the displacement camp.
BBC reported that Israel’s attack came just a few hours after Hamas, in response to the massacre of Palestinian civilians, fired eight rockets from Rafah towards Tel Aviv — all eight rockets being mostly intercepted by air defence systems or felt in fields.
Just four days before the attack on the displacement camp, International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan filed applications for warrants of arrest before the Pre-Trial Chamber I of the ICC. The Prosecutor released a Statement in which he said to have “reasonable grounds to believe that Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, and Yoav Gallant, the Minister of Defence of Israel, bear criminal responsibility for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed on the territory of the State of Palestine (in the Gaza strip)”. Crimes included starvation of civilians as a method of warfare; wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health, wilful killing, intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population, extermination and/or murder, and persecution. A panel of judges at the ICC now will consider whether to issue the arrest warrants. ICC’s Rome Statute signatory States would then be obliged to detain the statesman if they had the chance.*
The move against the Israeli politicians marks the first time the ICC has targeted the top leader of a close ally of the United States. However, the May 20 announcement is “not the first time that the ICC acted in relation to Israel. In March 2021, Khan’s office launched an investigation into possible crimes committed in the Palestinian territories since June 2014 in Gaza and the West Bank”, reports CNN. The statement, though, caused fury on both sides. Netanyahu commented on its possible arrest warrant as “a moral outrage of historic proportions,” referring to Khan as was one of the “great antisemites in modern times,” while Hamas demanded the withdrawal of the allegations against its leaders, claiming that the ICC’s prosecutor was “equating the victim with the executioner”. The move also caused outrage at the US House of Representatives: The House passed, 247 to 155 votes, a Republican-led bill that would impose sanctions on the ICC.
Now, while the US seems determined to go against the norms and values of the international system it once built, we can only hope that, as Nourham Fahmy puts it for the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, “[t]he prosecutor needs to stay true to his words and ensure that the ICC’s primary objective remains the achievement of justice for all victims of war atrocities and human rights violations. The credibility of the Court and the entire international legal system is at stake given the unprecedented scale of civilian suffering and the perceived politicization of the Court. The Court should take such concerns seriously and address them through a professional and impartial investigation in the ongoing situation in Palestine.”
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As the war continues to unfold, Palestinians continue to suffer. “I can’t explain what it feels like living through constant displacement, losing your loved ones,” said schoolteacher Mohammad Abu Radwan to the Associated Press, “[a]ll of this destroys us mentally.” The humanitarian situation in Gaza is catastrophic, with tent camps stretching more than 16 kilometres along Gaza’s coast. After having been displaced multiple times across the Strip since Israel started its war in Gaza, Palestinians find themselves with no water, no electricity, little fuel, and scarce humanitarian aid as Israel continues to block its entrance. In past weeks, most of the incoming aid had entered through two crossings from Israel in northern Gaza and via the U.S.-built floating pier — the two main crossings in the south, Rafah from Egypt and Kerem Shalom from Israel, are either not operating or are largely inaccessible for the UN because of fighting nearby. Israel now has captured all points of aid access and the floating pier has broken apart due to strong winds and heavy seas — said pier also caught the world’s attention more recently as the Israeli military allegedly used it for its bloody hostage rescue operation, which took the lives of 270 Palestinians. The Pentagon has denied Israeli use of the pier for the operation. Now, “[w]hile the US military has denied involvement in the attack, several international media outlets, including The New York Times, have reported that American officials provided intelligence that helped with the operation”, highlights Al Jazeera.
Despite the bleak humanitarian situation in Gaza, talks about a (very urgently needed) ceasefire that never fulfils continue: While Biden might be pressuring Hamas and Israel to strike a ceasefire sooner rather than later due to his own political considerations, analysts are deeply sceptical that either side will ever implement a deal that goes beyond a temporary truce, even as Hamas and the Israeli government appear to be inching closer to a ceasefire agreement, writes Steven Erlanger for The New York Times.?
Not only that, but while our eyes are at Rafah and Gaza, Israel’s incursions and violence in the West Bank have been increasing. Since it launched its war on Gaza on October 7, Israel has killed 516 Palestinians in the West Bank, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health. Similar to Gaza, refugee camps and densely civilian-populated areas are not off-limits for the Israeli military in the West Bank either. An open-source Intercept investigation documented at least 37 Israeli airstrikes, drone strikes, and attacks by helicopter gunships in the West Bank since June 2023, which have killed 55 Palestinians. Most attacks struck densely populated urban areas and refugee camps in Jenin, Tulkarem, and Nablus, all in the northern part of the West Bank. Catherine Cartier writes for the Intercept that while the airstrikes began last June, after October 7 their pace has accelerated, with Israel also conducting up to 1,000 raids per month in the West Bank since October 2023. “What I saw in Jenin camp is like Gaza on a smaller scale,” said Zaid Shuabi, a Palestinian human rights organiser in the West Bank, to Al Jazeera. “You don’t see roads because they’re destroyed. The infrastructure, … the sewage and electricity system and the water pipes and telecommunication networks are damaged.”
According to Amnesty International settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank have also intensified since October 7, with Israel forces having failed to take any action when between 12 and 16 April hundreds of Israeli settlers went on a deadly rampage launching violent raids on Palestinian villages in the West Bank, including in al-Mughayyir, Duma, Deir Dibwan, Beitin and Aqraba.
Since the war erupted, Israel has stopped transferring tax revenues it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority and suspended permits that had allowed tens of thousands of Palestinians to work in Israel, with 292,000 Palestinians in the West Bank losing their jobs, reports the Associated Press.?
*Despite US and Israel’s complaints, the ICC claims to have jurisdiction over Gaza, East Jerusalem and the West Bank after Palestinian leaders formally agreed to be bound by the court’s founding principles in 2015.
Trump Found Guilty On All 34 Charges
In our second Your Monthly Briefing summer recap we featured Trump’s skirmishes with the law. Almost a year after, the unfinished — Trump still faces an additional 54 felony charges in his three remaining criminal cases — story of Trump versus the law still reaches another of its highlights: a panel of New York jurors found the former president guilty on all 34 accounts in his “Hush Money Case”.
Luckily for us, CNN and Politico have undergone the titanic effort of summarising all of his open cases, which we will further summarise for you – or attempt to.
?
The Federal Election Interference Case
Starting strong. Federal prosecutors led by special counsel Jack Smith charged Trump with four federal crimes stemming from his attempts to derail the transfer of power in 2020. In August 2023, the grand jury approved an indictment against Trump, charging him with an extraordinary conspiracy that threatened to disenfranchise millions of Americans. While an initial trial date was set for March 2024, it ended up being called off due to Trump’s efforts to be declared immune from charges related to his conduct as President. US District Judge Tanya Chutkan and a panel of appellate judges rejected the presidential immunity claim, but the Supreme Court agreed to review the question and heard arguments in April. Now, even if the immunity bid is rejected, it will take months before a new trial date can be scheduled.?
The Classified Documents Case
Federal prosecutors, led again by special counsel Jack Smith, accused Trump of taking sensitive national security documents upon departing the White House. Prosecutors allege he stashed those documents haphazardly throughout his Mar-a-Lago resort, obstructed the government’s repeated attempts to retrieve them, and showed classified documents to individuals who were not authorised to view them. A trial was scheduled for May 2024 in Florida. However, Judge Aileen Cannon postponed it indefinitely to resolve pretrial conflicts. The plodding pace that Cannon has adopted during the pretrial process has befuddled many legal experts and frustrated prosecutors, leading some to believe that the prosecution may have received an unlucky break when the case was assigned to Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee who has a history of issuing rulings that are highly favourable to Trump.
The Georgia Election Interference Case
A local prosecutor charging a former president with election interference is unprecedented in American history. However, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis opened a criminal investigation in 2021, alleging a wide-ranging criminal enterprise after in January 2021 Trump called Georgia’s secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, and urged him to “find” 11,780 votes — the number needed to overcome Biden’s victory. In 2023, Willis presented her evidence to a regular grand jury, which approved a 98-page indictment in 2023. The indictment accused Trump of criminal wrongdoing, including 13 state-law felony charges. In March 2024, Judge Scott McAfee threw out three of the charges, finding that the allegations supporting them were not detailed enough.?
Coming back to the "Hush Money Case", Trump has called the New York jury's decision a “disgrace” and said the “real verdict” will come during the presidential election. His supporters seem to echo the same sentiment. “[I]nstead of mass protest, conservative voters generally said that they planned to find vindication through the November election by returning Mr. Trump to the White House,” found Elizabeth Días and Richard Fausset after interviewing more than two dozen people across 10 states for The New York Times. Moreover, if current polls can be an indicator of the upcoming election, Trump still — narrowly — leads the polls despite being found guilty: The Economist reports an advantage of 45 versus 44 for Trump, while RealClearPolitics’ polling augurs a Trump lead in all six key swing states. Certainly, Biden's stance on Israel is likely doing a disservice to the President's re-election campaign.
It seems so, that the verdict, in the words of Días and Fausset, “threatened to shatter [Trump’s supporters’] faith in democracy itself,” with his adherents seeing in the jury’s decision a rejection of themselves and the values they believed their nation should uphold. In an opinion piece published in La Vanguardia, John Carlin argued that resentment is Trump’s most potent weapon. “The moral arrogance of the bulk of the Democratic establishment towards those who have not been able to assimilate these changes in values [gender equality and LGBTQ+ rights, for instance], or who directly reject them, inspires precisely that resentment to which Trump appeals. Old-schoolers sense not only that the elites represented by The New York Times or The Washington Post despise them, but also that they see them (recalling Hillary Clinton's famous insult) as deplorable. […] ” wrote Carlin.
Indeed, the jury’s conviction has not waned Trump’s partisans’ support for the presidential candidate, nor has it alienated politicians among the Republican lines. As Goldmacher and Broadwater point out, “Republican candidates and party committees used the first criminal conviction of a former president as a rallying cry — for campaign cash, for congressional hearings and for motivation to vote in November,” quite successfully if we may add, as the Trump campaign raised nearly $53 million online in the 24 hours after the jury’s verdict.
The verdict, however, might be crucial for tipping the scale among undecided voters. “[W]ith the remaining undecided voters, having a felon as the Republican Party’s standard-bearer could make the decision to pick Mr. Trump harder, maybe a lot harder,” wrote Jonathan Weisman, Kellen Browning, and Maya King. Moreover, the BBC reported that in exit polls conducted during the Republican primaries, double-digit numbers of voters said that they would not vote for the former president if he were convicted of a felony.
While some start to echo a Trump victory, all we can do is keep an eye on polls and see how this story continues to unfold as approximately 240 million Americans will cast their ballots in November.
Burkina Faso, A Forgotten Crisis?
From Venezuela to Syria, the past decade has seen severe humanitarian crises, many of them resulting in mass displacements and migrations. While some of these crises have made it to the headlines, others have remained largely ignored. That is precisely the case for Burkina Faso, a country that for the second year in a row, experiences the world’s most neglected crisis, according to the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC).
Located in the Sahel, Burkina Faso is currently grappling with one of the world’s fastest growing humanitarian and displacement crises, figuring in the fourth place of the International Rescue Committee’s (IRC) 2024 Watchlist, an analysis identifying countries most susceptible to a deteriorating humanitarian situation.
Since 2019, the country has seen rising tensions and violence. The rise of armed groups has translated into the State’s loss of the monopoly of violence in Burkina Faso, with the central government controlling roughly half of the nation's territory. Meanwhile, the other half of the country, controlled by armed groups, is increasingly experiencing blocked cities and towns, with sieges affecting two million people across 46 locations, leaving hundreds without access to humanitarian aid. Asseta, a displaced mother now living in Kongoussi, told the Norwegian Refugee Council “We have not received any assistance for a long, long time. In periods like this, when we do not have anything else to cook, I go and pick leaves and boil them in water. This pot will feed more than 10 people in my family. This week we have only eaten leaves most days.”
According to the IRC, “the blockades severely disrupt access to critical services and have curtailed trade and farming, destroying livelihoods. In some towns, the lack of new supplies over several months has led to alarming levels of food insecurity”, with an unprecedented 42.000 people suffering catastrophic levels of food insecurity. At present, over 40% of people live below the poverty line in Burkina Faso, while violence has entailed the closure of nearly 300 local health centres and almost five thousand schools, limiting the health care that 1.1 million people can obtain and leaving 800.000 children without access to education.
A cause for concern is that scores that would have placed a country third on previous year’s list leaves it outside this year’s top ten. “The utter neglect of displaced people has become the new normal,” said Jan Egeland, Secretary General of the NRC. “The local political and military elites disregard the suffering they cause, and the world is neither shocked nor compelled to act by stories of desperation and record-breaking statistics. We need a global reboot of solidarity and a refocus on where needs are greatest.”?
A UN refugee agency's director for west and central Africa, Abdouraouf Gnon-Konde warned in a visit to Brussels in May “[i]f we don't act now, if we don't respond now, if we don't find a way to remain there, stay and continue to remain engaged, finding a solution, then somehow those countries will be overwhelmed, the state will be overwhelmed, and it will become a problem for the world.”
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