Keeping Up Appearances -Ukraine’s Propaganda Victories (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #304)

If truth is the first casualty of war, then it died the day Russia began their unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. From time to time the truth gets resurrected, but it is hard to know exactly what to believe. This has been true throughout the conflict and seems to have escalated lately as both sides prepare new offensives. It goes without saying that both sides engage in propaganda. In Ukraine’s case much of the information emanating from the government has turned out to be mostly true. In Russia’s case, it has turned out to be the opposite of the truth.

The Ukrainian government has a finer line to walk in this regard than do the Russians. This is due to the difference between democracy and despotism. The Ukrainians must adhere closer to the truth because support from their populace and allies depends upon it. At the same time, the Ukrainians need to spin the truth in such a way that it looks like they are progressing to a decisive victory in the war. This keeps allied support for coming. At the same time, it ensures elevated levels of morale for the Ukrainian people.

Truth Be Told – Maximalist Aims

All propaganda is based upon belief and the Ukrainian government needs to ensure that everyone on their side believes the war is winnable. Their most convincing arguments thus far have come on the battlefield. Lulls in fighting are not helpful in this regard. The relatively static warfare in November, December, and January is dangerous because forward progress on the battlefield boosts the belief in victory. The idea of stalemate is the worst-case scenario for the Ukrainians. It means more pain and suffering without a positive resolution. A stalemate will also cause Ukraine’s allies to question their continued investment in the war and raise the possibility of a negotiated peace. At this point, that is not something Ukraine can afford. Truth be told, it is doubtful that the Ukrainian people can ever stomach a stalemate.

Unless setbacks on the battlefield make a negotiated peace all but impossible to ignore, the Ukrainians will continue fighting until they achieve victory. That is because the losses for Ukraine have been too great in military forces, material, civilians, and territory to countenance anything other than a resounding defeat of the Russian military. The pain and suffering inflicted upon the Ukrainian people has been and will continue to be at such a level that the idea of Russia still occupying Ukrainian territory after a peace settlement would be toxic for the current Ukrainian government. There is no way even a leader as popular as Volodymyr Zelensky would be able to stay in office if a peace was negotiated with Russia occupying more Ukrainian territory than it already did on February 24, 2022, when their invasion began. For that matter, the mentality of Ukrainians has been transformed by the war to such an extent

that it is difficult to foresee them accepting anything other than their entire pre-2014 territory liberated. As the war worsened so did the government’s postwar objectives. The Ukrainian government now has maximalist aims. These have become part of their propaganda.

Winning Public Support - The Home Front

The Zelensky administration is fighting three battles, all of which are deeply influenced by propaganda. There is the battle for Ukrainian public support, the battle to keep their western allies providing the necessary support to win the war, and the information space battle with Russian. The Ukrainians have overwhelmingly won the battle for their own public’s support. The Ukrainian people’s trust in the Zelensky administration is sky high by any standard. This is particularly true when it comes to the short, tumultuous history of independent Ukraine beginning in 1991. Never have the Ukrainian people been so united. Ironically, the only other time there was such broad political support in the country was when Ukrainians overwhelmingly voted to leave the Soviet Union to become an independent nation. The one thing that has never failed to unite Ukrainians is resistance to any larger role for Russia within the country. Russia used to be the great divider among Ukrainians, the unintended consequences of Putin’s unprovoked invasion has been to unify Ukrainians as never before.

The easiest way to rally the Ukrainian people now and well for generations to come will be to mention Russia. The invasion and resulting depredations committed by the Russians ensured the Ukrainian government won the battle for their own public’s support. The most effective propaganda in this regard is that produced by the Putin regime in the form of an unprovoked invasion, senseless attacks against Ukrainian civilians, and a range of war crimes unseen in Europe since the Second World War. Vladimir Putin, Russian fascism, and occupation have made Ukrainian independence a reality. They have gifted the Ukrainians a massive amount of propaganda which will be used against the Russians for generations to come.

Solidifying Support – Fights Without A Finish

The Ukrainians continue win widespread support for their cause in the western world. They have successfully (and rightfully) portrayed themselves as underdogs fighting a vile regime intent on bringing all the horrors of the first half of the 20th century back to Europe. The idea that what Russia has inflicted upon Ukraine could happen in other parts of Europe if the Putin regime is victorious has been enough to solidify support among most Europeans. To be sure, there are fault lines and fractures to be found in such a broad coalition, but the Ukrainians have done an excellent job of boosting support for themselves through the clever use of social media, Zelensky’s telegenic presence, widely disseminating stories of Ukrainian heroism, and showcasing their resistance.

This battle for the hearts and minds of the western world is ongoing. It has been fought with the same level of intensity as the military aspects of the conflict. This is understandable, since sustaining western support is integral to Ukrainian hopes of victory. There cannot be one without the other. Keen observers will notice that not every bit of information the Ukrainian government sends out is pure truth. This is by design because the ends justify the means. Promoting positives and omitting negatives helps guarantee widespread western support. Ukraine continues to succeed in this regard, but this battle is far from over. The Ukrainian government must remain vigilant. This is also true in their battle with Russia for the information space.