Keeping The Pollsters Honest

We are all heavily influenced by polling results when it comes to who we gravitate towards with our political support, but where are the checks and balances that ensure we are getting the most accurate figures possible?

Once released, these polling results are published, often verbatim, throughout all of our mainstream media channels, often setting the news agenda we consume and potentially influencing us.

What happens if a poll is dodgy. For example only the views, of say, the right wing Tax Payers Union Members are polled.

When you conduct and release a credible political poll in Aotearoa you must belong to Research Association of New Zealand (RANZ) and abide by the NZ Political Polling Code. The RANZ website clearly states, “It is intended that the code assist politicians, political scientists, journalists and members of the public to be confident that political polls do in fact represent the opinions of the wider public and are a guide as to likely voting behaviours”.

The main polling organisations in Aotearoa most frequently used by our media are Curia Market Research, Television New Zealand (One News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Independent Fieldwork Company, Reid Research plus monthly polls by Roy Morgan.

Curia Market Research and its founder, David Farrar, are members of RANZ and they state on their website that they, “Subscribe to and follows the RANZ Code of Practice” which gives you that intended confidence when digesting their poll results. David Farrar was also a co-founder of the Taxpayers Union and a board member until July 2023.

A Curia poll was released on February 10, 2024 by the Taxpayers Union stating ACT increased their popularity by 5.6. to 13 per cent, National went up 2.6 to 39.6 per cent while NZ First dropped to 5 per cent, Greens were down 4.8 to 9 per cent and Te Pāti declined 1.1 to 2.3 per cent.

The Taxpayers Union are not members of RANZ and therefore not subjected to their Political Polling Code.

Most media outlets precisely published those results which were reflected in their headlines. E.g.: NZH, “Poll shows Act leader David Seymour and party gaining support after Waitangi events”; Newshub, “New poll shows sharp rise for ACT during heated Waitangi period” referring to it as the “Union-Curia” poll.

In other words the Media without question publish the poll but it was released, not by Curia, but by the Tax Payers Union.

RANZ Executive Secretary, Claire Lloyd, confirmed this week that neither Curia-Taxpayers Union nor Taxpayers Union-Curia are members of RANZ. Therefore both lack the credibility that correct procedures are being adhered too when releasing these polls into the public domain. Additionally, there was no visible fine print stating the figures were an interpretation of the results, thus they appear valid.

On February 12, 2024, David Farrar from Curia denied releasing the February 10 poll, pushing all responsibility to the Taxpayers Union, distancing himself. On December 13, 2023 when approached about a similar occurrence Farrar again denied accountability claiming in that instance the poll had been leaked to the media.

Research Association New Zealand is the only industry body committed to professional providers and users of research and insights. And the majority of RANZ workers are volunteers so they do not have capacity to audit the various polling companies. They trust these companies are complying with their standards but they do investigate any valid claims that are presented to them.

Curia Polls and David Farrar cannot be trusted unless he divorces himself from his co-founder of the Taxpayers Union, Jordan Williams.

David Farrar must also ensure that he does not allow any future polls entitled with his consent, Taxpayers Union Curia Poll, Curia Taxpayers Union Poll – Why? Taxpayers Union is not a bona fide member of R.A.N.Z. Only Curia Market Research is a member of R.A.N.Z but even then R.A.N.Z relies on the integrity of its members adhering to its standards.

We should not simply take these polling results as fact. How can we have facial recognition in supermarkets to keep our actions transparent, when that the same logic is not being directed to the companies who can easily sway our opinions on the current political environment? Accountability is paramount because if the pollsters are not being kept honest, then we’re all just mushrooms absorbing figures that play a pivotal role in our democratic decision process.

P.S. Mainstream Media, dependant on who owns them and who their editorial policy is driven by, will print the narrative that they want rather than look and see what is honest.

P.S.S. Māori need honesty and transparency from this system, for example, how many Māori are actually polled in each poll? How many non-Māori identify in supporting Te Pāti Māori? A Māori cohort poll makes a mockery of any poll unless these numbers are disclosed. We have a tail of two polls, the rorted one by Taxpayers Union-Curia and a poll by Curia that tells a different story but still supports the view that National are undoubtedly the preferred major party.

John Tamihere is president of Te Pāti Māori. He is a former Labour Government Minister and chief executive of West Auckland urban Māori Authority Te Whānau o Waipareira and the Whānau Ora Commissioning Agency.