Keeping the Dream of 1.5 Degrees Alive!

Amidst all the excitement and let-downs at the recently concluded COP-26 Conference and the diverse range of commitments & pledges made and agreements reached during the conference lies a stark reality! Fossil Fuels still constitute a whopping 83% of the energy mix globally and it’s a reality that can’t be undermined. The spike of an almost 90%+ spike in the price of natural gas right before the onset of COP-26 Conference and the subsequent pleas to OPEC to raise production and the realization of extreme dependence on autocracies for fossil fuel needed to prop up economies was a harsh wake-up call and calls for some real soul searching. Fossil Fuels are still alive and kicking and continue adding to our global emissions. From writing epitaphs about the demise of Coal around a year back to acknowledging the resurgence of Fossil Fuels, the notable newspaper Economist had to make a turnabout by acknowledging that we are not yet done when it comes to the era of Fossil Fuels.

Are we staring at a scenario of ‘Too little too late!’ when it comes to transitioning to a Net zero world or is there still hope to keep the dream of 1.5 degrees alive?

Contrary to the analogy of a sports car which you can race from 0 to 70 miles in a few seconds, the reality of transitioning the energy mix to cleaner sources is far more nuanced. It is not a sprint here but a marathon that we are contending with. We can’t just flip the switch and make the transition happen. The infrastructural investments needed to make the transition at approx. $4 Trillion+ per annum for the next 30 years are stupendous but still represent just only one part of the equation. We also need to consider a host of other variables in the mix including Public Policy interventions, Social equity aspects, cross-border collaboration, Green subsidies/phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies and most importantly Geo-politics towards a real commitment for realizing the net zero vision. Lives and livelihoods are at a stake, no matter which way we pivot!

The next decade will be crucial since we not only need to reduce emissions by at least 45% but also need to exponentially scale the myriad Cleantech innovations that offer the hope of keeping the 1.5 degrees dream alive. Declarations, commitments, pledges, platitudes and wishful thinking will not change the energy mix on their own. Renewables have come a long way in Price Performance metrics but scaling renewables to become a primary part of our energy mix still has some real challenges that we need to contend with.?Nuclear technology has largely fallen by the wayside, post the Fukushima disaster with not many takers for this clean energy source. This leaves us susceptible to technologies like wind, solar and hydro which will continue to be subject to the vagaries of mother nature. Energy Storage is evolving really fast but still has a journey of ‘miles to go before I sleep’ when it comes to long term energy storage at scale. ?Green Hydrogen shows promise but there is a still a long way to go. Transitory technologies like Natural Gas which while being significantly better than coal but still contributing to global warming significantly may also need consideration as a part of the transition.

The talk around ‘Data being the New oil’ that drives the economy may ring true at large for the digital economy, but when it comes to the Bricks & mortar economy, the old oil proverbially speaking still drives the economy. Even the new age economy still relies largely on the old oil to drive forth its computations and insights (prime example being electricity guzzling data centers), which are purportedly the drivers of the new economy.

The reality has to ultimately dawn upon us. If we need to realize our Net Zero vision globally , it will need a concerted plan across Governments, Industries and Corporates and a collective will to make it happen. Additionally, we need to contemplate on what we as individuals can do to chip in and make our contributions. Do we even bat an eyelid before taking our cars for short distances (a mile or two) where we could rather walk? ?While it’s key to aggregate the carbon footprint across corporations to country to region to a Global level, it’s equally important for us to start having tangible measures on our individual Carbon footprints.

The transition won’t be easy! Despite all the Government impetus and associated subsidies, there are bound to be severe bumps along the route. The economic & employment impacts in the short to mid-term will be vastly different across regions & countries. We need to consider on what it will take as a collective to soften the blow of these impacts while continuing our steadfast march towards net zero and keeping the dream of 1.5 degrees alive.

Technology is still evolving and as it gains economies of scale and mainstream adoption, the economic rationale for moving on to new tech will keep getting stronger. Geo-politics will be tough but will play the most crucial role in our evolution towards Green tech.

As we reflect on the conclusions from COP-26, we should mull over these aspects. Singing Platitudes and mere rhetoric towards a Net Zero vision won’t make the cut. Debating semantics over ‘Coal Phase out’ vs ‘Coal Phase down’ in the closing moments of COP-26 and the emotional drama that ensued, doesn’t instill much confidence.?We need action which is grounded in reality and aligned with the monumental task that lies ahead.

Millennium & centuries of human history have taught us the resilience of human beings and our ability to step-up and succeed in the face of adversity. Climate Change and the urgent need to mitigate its adverse impacts presents a new chapter in the evolution of humanity. My hope is that we will rise to the challenge as a collective society and strive to address the immense technological, economic & geo-political hurdles to address this and come out good.

The dream of 1.5 degrees seems may be on life support and hanging by a thread, but a collective will to save the day (Century actually) may still hold us in good stead.. Will the COP-26 prove to be a turning-point or will we squander the dream and leave an uninhabitable planet to our next generations? The jury is still out on the same!