Kazakhstan – a country at a crossroads
In his 2015 book Prisoners of Geography, Tim Marshall barely mentions Kazakhstan on his chapter on Russia. Why would anyone be interested in a country as new (last Soviet republic to declare independence), as isolated (largest landlocked nation on Earth) and as deserted (nomadic population of less than 20 million)?
Kazakhstan is at the heart of Eurasia, surrounded by Russia, China, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and the Caspian Sea. It lies in between the West and the East (in fact it is unclear it belongs to Europe or Asia) and as it turns out, it is quite rich in both oil and natural gas. It also holds a “high human development” as defined by the UN, close to Russia’s and well ahead of the rest of the “stan” countries. Contrary to popular beliefs, not all 7 “stans” are poor and immersed in wars and conflicts.
"Contrary to popular beliefs, not all 7 “ stans” are poor and immersed in wars and conflicts".
Almaty is the Berlin of Eurasia. The former capital enjoys magnificent landscapes and breathes modernity and welfare despite the Soviet heritage. Almatians can be found in parks, theatres, universities, restaurants, sheesha bars, trendy clubs and even casinos. It is also the birthplace for local rap that mixes Russian, Kazakh, Uyghur and English. Man-made Astana may hold the Presidential Palace now but it is clear even for a visitor that Almaty continues to be the business, cultural and trade center of Kazakhstan.
"Almaty continues to be the business, cultural and trade center of Kazakhstan"
China has big plans for Almaty and for Kazakhstan more broadly, in the context of the New Silk Route – or One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative, which will reconnect the West with the East by both land and sea. SWF-owned KTZ, the national railway company, will be partly privatised soon, and will play an important role in the developments of the renewed trading routes.
Kazakhstan’s first and only President to date, Nazarbayev, is a convincing man. He’s persuaded 20 million people to focus on the country’s development before considering any democratic change. He’s reacted on time to the imminent crisis and is open to discuss privatisations and transformation of the Government-related entities. Three years ago, he unveiled the Strategy 2050, which “calls for widespread economic, social and political reforms to position Kazakhstan among the top 30 global economies by 2050”. I cannot help but compare it to the Arabian Dreams, on a longer-term version.
Wealth will have to be well managed though. Talking to various people in Bishkek, I could see the resentment of Kyrgyz people with their Northern neighbours, who they regard as “Mongols, selfish and utterly arrogant”. Had Astana managed better the reserves and controlled the spending into flashy buildings, we probably would not be talking about restructuring and privatisations now. In this context, Astana’s nickname as the new Dubai seems rather appropriate.
"Had Astana managed better the reserves and controlled the spending into flashy buildings, we probably would not be talking about restructuring and privatisations now"
The potential is there, and international institutions are happy to recognise it. During 2017, Astana will host the Expo, which will focus on the challenge of future energies, as well as the Annual Session of the International Forum of SWFs at the end of next year – by that time, the various investment companies may (should?) look very different.