Kaputt/ Iron Dust Could Reverse the Course of Climate Change/Generative AI is Just a Phase/ Artificial Wombs Could Start Soon/

Kaputt. I have been wanting to write this intro for months now, and I am happy that I procrastinated it for so long, as more and more media outlets have been covering the topic, and then eventually this week my favorite economics blogger covered it in such a comprehensive way that I could have only dreamed of.

I am talking about the current state in which Germany is now. I can only encourage you to read the article (and follow Noahpinion). Below is a summary of the core points made by him. A few additional reflections from my side.

I am Italian, but also have a German passport. I live in Berlin and have been living in Germany since 1996, with an 8 years hiatus between 2006-14. And over the last few years, I noticed how the country had become complacent, focusing on the wrong topics, and massively underinvesting in its future and in the infrastructure needed to enable it. The current state of Deutsche Bahn (the German railways) summarizes a lot of the problems I am referring to.

I want to be very clear, this post is not to complain or speak badly about the country. Ultimately it is my decision to live in Germany, and not only I am happy here, I am also thankful for everything Germany has offered me. It is just a way to express my frustration in seeing a country with great potential standing in its way, while getting more and more complacent. I really hope that it gets back on track and that it manages to reform itself, as it did in the early 2000s.

Also because it is not only a Germany issue. It is the biggest economy and the most populous country in Europe, we all need a flourishing Germany for Europe to grow and flourish itself.

Which brings me to the last point. Europe is possibly on the verge of becoming irrelevant on the world stage. We cannot afford a weak Germany. At the same time, we do have to ask ourselves if we have become delusional and complacent as a continent. I forgot where I read it, but I vividly recall an article from a few months ago making the point that the only industries where Europe is still leading are all lifestyle-based ones… all based on culture and heritage, none of them based on technology and future-oriented…

I will simply steal Noah Smith’s closing sentence: “Most of all, Germany needs to realize that the easy days of the 2010s aren’t coming back. There’s a difficult path ahead, and it has to be faced head-on rather than ignored. Europe needs Germany to stop messing around.” I wholeheartedly agree.

Here is the summary of the Noahpinion Blog Post: Germany needs to stop messing around!

In the article, Noah Smith highlights the challenges and shortcomings faced by Germany in various aspects, urging the country to embrace progress and change. He discusses Germany's economic struggles, including the theft of intellectual property by China and its negative impact on German exports. Furthermore, he also criticizes Germany's decision to shut down nuclear power plants, which has hindered its decarbonization efforts and increased its reliance on Russian gas while emphasizing the need for Germany to prioritize economic independence and reduce its dependence on authoritarian powers.

According to Smith, Germany's stagnation in the software and digital sectors is not to be forgotten either, as well as its lack of world-leading research universities (I don’t agree with this last point). He criticizes the regulatory approach of the European Union towards software and advocates for Germany to take a more proactive stance in promoting technological innovation while highlighting the challenges Germany faces in housing construction and its bureaucratic inefficiencies.

Finally, he emphasizes the importance of Germany's role in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression, particularly in supplying military equipment and ammunition. However, he criticizes Germany's failure to increase military spending and fulfill its defense commitments.

The article concludes with a call for Germany to become a competitive country again by restarting nuclear plants, investing in renewable energy, boosting defense capabilities, promoting digitization, and addressing NIMBYism.

Definitely a critical assessment of Germany's economic, energy, technological, and defense policies. And I very much concur with his appeal to the country to confront the challenges it faces and take proactive measures to secure its future and support Europe as a whole.

Iron Dust Could Reverse the Course of Climate Change

It once “seemed switching to clean energy might be enough to stave off climate catastrophe.” But even though the US and other countries have made some progress in transitioning to clean energy, “the growth of coal in the rest of the world and the rising energy demand overall… make it clear that we desperately need another solution.”

In an op-ed for the NY Times, three distinguished scientists call on the US government to fund research into the feasibility of “geoengineering the oceans” by “fertilizing” plankton and algae with iron-rich dust, turbocharging a phenomenon that has occurred naturally for “billions of years.”

“Agricultural practices to preserve topsoil” have reduced the amount of iron dust that reaches the oceans, interfering with a natural form of carbon capture so effective it may have helped bring on the ice ages. Previous small studies have indicated “the tremendous impact” fertilizing the oceans could have “for a very low cost.” The US government should fund large-scale studies urgently. “Whatever questions ocean fertilization presents, they pale compared with what we already know about the escalating climate catastrophe if we continue on our current path.”

News items:

Renewable Energy Funding in 2023: A “Capital Transition” Unleashed

A new S&P report finds an annual “funding gap” in global renewable energy generation of up to $700B. To meet 2050’s net-zero goals, an estimated $1.4T needs to be invested in renewable energy production every year. Current estimates show only half that much spending, mostly originating in the EU, US, and China. Clean energy investment in other countries accounts for “only 20% of the global total.”

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DeepMind’s Cofounder: Generative AI Is Just a Phase. What’s Next Is Interactive AI.

DeepMind co-founder Mustafa Suleyman believes GenAI is “just a phase,” and the next step is “interactive AI,” where bots “carry out tasks you set for them” by collaborating with “other software and other people to get stuff done.” MIT Tech Review sat down with Suleyman — now co-founder and CEO at Inflection — to discuss AI’s Coming Wave.

Unlike "high-profile doomers" such as Geoffrey Hinton. Suleyman believes the “existential-risk stuff (about AI) has been a completely bonkers distraction.” He supports robust AI regulation but doesn’t think it will be difficult to achieve. “We should just refocus the conversation on the fact that we’ve done an amazing job of regulating super complex things,” says Suleyman. “Look at the Federal Aviation Administration: it’s incredible that we all get in these tin tubes at 40,000 feet, and it’s one of the safest modes of transport ever… I love the nation-state. I believe in the power of regulation. And what I’m calling for is action on the part of the nation-state to sort its shit out. Given what’s at stake, now is the time to get moving.”

News items:

The iPhone 15 Opts for Intuitive AI, Not Generative AI

Unlike many new tech products that come loaded with GenAI bells and whistles, Apple has once again chosen to think different with the launch of iPhone 15. Its A17 Pro processor “put[s] more power behind machine-learning algorithms,” but its AI tools are “intuitive, not generative.” Instead of attempting to wow users with “a flashy… know-it-all chatbot,” the new iPhone uses AI to “smoothes over [life’s] glitches or offer helpful predictions without being intrusive.”

Human Trials of Artificial Wombs Could Start Soon. Here’s What You Need to Know

Researchers at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) are seeking approval for human trials of their Extra-uterine Environment for Newborn Development — or EXTEND — biotech — initially developed in an “artificial-womb experiment” using preterm lambs as subjects. EXTEND “is not intended — or able — to support development from conception to birth.” Instead, by simulating a human womb, researchers hope to “increase survival and improve outcomes for extremely premature babies” that are “less than 70% of the way to full term.”

Other approaches to artificial womb tech are taking place around the world, but CHOP is the first to apply for human trials. The FDA has convened “a meeting of independent advisers… to discuss regulatory and ethical considerations and what human trials for the technology might look like.”

Kelly Werner, bioethicist and neonatologist at CUIMC, says, “This is definitely an exciting step, and it’s been a long time coming.” Others in the field are less enthusiastic. Guid Oei, an obstetrician at TU/e working on an alternative approach to artificial wombs, says, “You only have one chance to do it right, and the learning curve should not be on actual human beings.”

News items:

Can Remote Surgeries Digitally Transform Operating Rooms?

Since 2016, Proximie’s operating room data platform has been used “in tens of thousands of procedures in more than 50 countries and 500 hospitals. On this HBR Podcast, HBS Associate Professor Ariel Stern discusses the case study she co-wrote about Proximie’s mission to use “XR technology to create borderless operating rooms,” founder Nadine Hachach-Haram’s unique backstory, and the growth strategy driving the company’s success.

According to Stern: ”At the highest level [Hachach-Haram], is going after the problem of the five billion people worldwide who lack access to safe surgery. She and her colleagues are deeply committed to the global health impact that Proximie has the potential… to deliver.”

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Your Friends Will Hate You If You Use AI to Write Texts, Science Confirms

Breaking news! “Your friends will hate you if you use AI to write texts.” A recent study indicates that people respond negatively to AI-generated messages from friends. Using GenAI tools like ChatGPT leads to “perceptions of diminished effort in a relationship [that] lead to less satisfaction and greater uncertainty about the partner’s involvement in the relationship.”

Even in “technology-mediated communication,” people value “internal, personal effort,” not someone firing off a ChatGPT-generated text or clicking a Like button.

News items:

US Copyright Office Denies Protection for Another AI-Created Image

The US Copyright Office just dealt GenAI art another blow. Despite winning the prestigious Colorado State Fair Fine Arts Award, Jason M. Allen’s Midjourney-enabled masterwork, "Theatre D'opera Spatial,” has been denied “copyright protection because it was not the product of human authorship.”

Give Every AI a Soul—or Else

Generative large language models — or “gollems” — may turn out to be what Reid Hoffman and Marc Andreessen call “amplification intelligence,” or they may “existentially threaten human survival.” But any calls for a moratorium on their development are misguided. As Caltech cyber scientist Yaser Abu-Mostafa says, “If you don’t develop this technology, someone else will. Good guys will obey rules … The bad guys will not.”

Most people “opining about synthetic intelligence today generally ignore lessons taught both by nature and by history.” The only things to “ever limit predation by powerful humans exploiting new technologies to aggrandize their predatory power” have been accountability and “flattened reciprocal competition.” These core principles remain the best way “to maximize positive outcomes from AI, while minimizing the flood of bad behaviors and harms we now see looming toward us, at tsunami speed.”

Sci-fi author and physicist David Brin says, “We should urgently incentivize AI entities to coalesce into discretely defined, separated individuals of relatively equal competitive strength.” And who holds a gollem accountable when it doesn’t play by the rules? Another AI that’s incentivized to blow the whistle.

How do we achieve accountability? “Higher-level AI entities who seek trust should maintain a Soul Kernel (SK) in a specific piece of hardware memory,” the cyber equivalent of a driver’s license that enables “AI entities might hold each other accountable, separately, as rivals, the way that human lawyers already do.”

News items:

Driverless Dilemma

Would you kill one person to save five? The Trolley Problem is a “pretty straightforward bit of moral math,” but the answer gets “fuzzy” when it’s your hand on the lever. Nine out of 10 people say they would pull the lever. But if you ask the same people if they would push someone in front of the trolley to achieve the same outcome, nine out of 10 people say no. The math is the same, but something in people’s moral calculus changes when they have to physically push a person to save four lives instead of pulling a lever. With autonomous vehicles becoming commonplace, how will these “two-ton hunk[s] of speeding metal… make moral calculations about life and death that still baffle its creators?”