Kamala Harris's Defining Moment: Navigating the Israel-Palestine Issue in the 2024 Election

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, Vice President Kamala Harris finds herself at a critical juncture, inheriting a Democratic ticket fraught with complex geopolitical challenges, particularly regarding U.S. policy in the Middle East. The ongoing genocide in Gaza and the broader Israel-Palestine issue have become significant points of contention, not only in the international arena but also among key voter demographics within the United States.

This analysis aims to provide a nuanced understanding of how Harris's positions on Palestine, shaped by her time as Vice President and her previous political career, may influence her campaign and voter support. Of particular interest is her standing among progressives and left-leaning voters who are increasingly critical of U.S. support for Israel's actions in Gaza.

Harris's Stance on Israel-Palestine

Much of Harris's position on Palestine has been presumed to align with President Biden's. Indeed, Biden administration officials have stated there is no significant difference between their views on Israel's operations in Gaza. When pressed at public events, Harris has generally restated Biden's position and endorsed a two-state solution.

However, there are nuances to Harris's approach:

1.???? In March, she publicly advocated for a ceasefire before Biden did, which some interpreted as testing her individual political stance.

2.???? As a U.S. Senator, Harris opposed SB-1, an anti-Boycott, Divest, and Sanctions (BDS) bill backed by pro-Israel lobbies, citing constitutional free speech concerns.

3.???? When interviewed about Netanyahu's order to invade Rafah, Harris did not rule out consequences for Israeli forces, in contrast to Biden's more unequivocal support.

4.???? Harris has been more explicit about acknowledging “the scale of human suffering” among Palestinians, stating she “will not be silent” and that a two-state solution must ensure Palestinians “can exercise their right to freedom, dignity, and self-determination.”

However, Harris has not directly criticized Biden's or Israel's actions in Gaza. She has also condemned protesters outside Netanyahu's address to Congress for flag burning and met with Netanyahu shortly before extrajudicial assassinations of key figures in Hamas and Hezbollah, raising questions about U.S. commitment to a ceasefire.

Foreign Policy Approach

Harris's broader foreign policy approach remains somewhat unclear. Her management of the U.S.-Mexico border did not reflect her earlier statements about potentially abolishing ICE, and she has signaled continuity with Biden's asylum policies.

Her national security advisor, Philip Gordon, supported the Iran Nuclear Deal and has expressed skepticism about U.S. interventionism. However, Gordon has also stated that Harris's support for Israel is “ironclad,” suggesting a continuation of traditional pro-Israel policies.

Electoral Implications

The Israel-Palestine issue could significantly impact Harris's electoral prospects. Recent polls indicate that Harris has little room for error, with battleground states likely to be decided by narrow margins.

Surveys on 'Gaza votes' reveal that the conflict has become a critical issue for many progressives:

·?????? Approximately 20% of Democratic or Independent voters in key battleground states reported being less likely to vote for Biden due to his stance on Gaza.

·?????? Over 60% strongly support an immediate ceasefire.

·?????? More than half support conditioning aid to the Israeli military.

Polling suggests that an immediate and permanent ceasefire, along with ending unconditional military aid to Israel, could secure the votes of over a fifth of Democrats and Independents in crucial swing states.

Harris's Choice of Running Mate

Harris's selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate rather than a more staunchly pro-Israel candidate like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has been seen as a nod to pro-Palestinian advocacy groups. While Walz has supported pro-Israel resolutions in the past, he has recently signaled openness to the “uncommitted” anti-war protest movement and adopted more nuanced rhetoric regarding Palestinians.

Challenges and Opportunities

As Harris navigates her candidacy, her stance on Palestine and the Gaza conflict will play a crucial role in shaping her political trajectory. She faces the challenge of balancing continuity with the Biden administration's policies while addressing the concerns of an increasingly vocal progressive base.

The political stakes are high. With battleground states likely to be decided by slim margins, Harris cannot afford to alienate progressive voters who have grown frustrated with the Democratic Party's stance on foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East. A decisive move to condition military aid to Israel or to enforce an unconditional ceasefire could energize support among these voters, demonstrating a willingness to pursue a more equitable foreign policy.

Accordingly, Kamala Harris stands at a crossroads as she prepares for the 2024 presidential election. Her ability to navigate the complexities of U.S. policy in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict, may well determine her political future and that of the Democratic Party. By staking out a clear and principled position on Gaza, she has the potential to redefine her candidacy, energize her base, and secure a critical margin of victory. The coming months will be crucial as Harris reveals her true stance on one of the most contentious issues of our time and as voters make their decisions based on the principles she chooses to uphold.

?From Beirut, Prof. Habib Al Badawi