The Kamala Harris Surge: Sustainable, or Sugar Rush? What You Need to Know about the US Political Whiplash

In the space of just 5 days, the US political landscape has dramatically shifted. Joe Biden’s announcement on Sunday that he would not seek the nomination of his party for a second term as President was followed by his endorsement of Kamala Harris, his Vice President.

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A brief period of speculation about whether other candidates would throw their hats into the ring quickly gave way to Democrats closing ranks around Harris and pledging to transfer their primary votes to her. Harris now has the votes to secure the nomination at the August 15 Democratic National Convention, meaning there is no prospect of an “open convention” or other challengers being at the top of the ticket for the Democratic party.

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For a party that has not historically been known for its discipline, this is a remarkable feat. To those suggesting the outcome was engineered by the Democratic party leadership (even a “coup”, some said), the survey data supports the choice of Harris as the top choice for the rank-and-file, with 8 out of 10 Democrats believing the party should nominate her.

In a very short period of time, Harris has gained momentum, overtaking her boss--especially with young and minority voters--and modestly closing on Trump in some swing states. According to Morning Consult’s first post-Biden resignation poll, Harris now leads Trump 46% to 45% . A statistical tie to be sure, but a very rapid ascent by Harris nonetheless.

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The key question is if her momentum can last: one of “Fordham’s Political Razors” is that there is an inverse relationship between a candidate’s approval ratings and their exposure to the public. This strategy worked quite well recently in the recent UK elections for Keir Starmer, a man of few words during the campaign who now sits in Number 10 with a majority government, albeit having won the election against a governing party that had endured a calamitous few years in charge.?

Latest Polls?

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Via Morning Consult : Kamala Harris VS Donald Trump.?

Via ECP : Swing State Polling : 2024 General Election

Via PredictIT: Woman President Elected in 2024 ??

By US standards, it is highly unusual for a candidate to have “just” 100 days to run a presidential campaign. Indeed, the task of building the necessary infrastructure and “ground game” is daunting, though Harris will be able to make use of the Biden campaign’s existing assets. Harris has had a dynamic start to her campaign; holding rallies, raising a record $81 mm in the first 24? hours mostly from non-corporate “small dollar” and first-time donors, and issuing her first campaign advertisement, with Beyonce’s “Freedom” as the soundtrack, appropriating a concept typically associated with the Republican agenda around and re-framing it. It’s well worth a watch: ( Watch Now).? ?

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In her initial campaign rhetoric, Harris is emphasising her experience as a prosecutor and District Attorney, contrasting it with Trump as a felon. This is another interesting inversion—will she run as a “law and order” candidate? This could be risky. Clearly she is emphasising healthcare and reproductive rights, and, although her foreign policy experience is limited, my sense is that one area she will quietly distance herself from Biden is on unqualified support for Israel, though she did come out quite forcefully criticising pro-Palestinian protests in Washington surrounding the visit of Israeli PM Netanyahu to Congress.

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In contrast to her octogenarian counterparts, the Harris campaign has embraced online culture, exploiting existing memes about her (her laugh, her dancing, comments about coconuts, and being “Brat”?

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In the meantime, one week after being named the Republican vice presidential pick, JD Vance has seen his approval ratings go into negative territory , currently polling at -6 points, compared to a general average (post 2000) of +19 points. Comments from Vance about “childless cat ladies with miserable lives” have managed to rile up women across the country, including the usually apolitical Jennifer Aniston .

Had Biden made his announcement earlier, would Trump have chosen Nikki Haley for his running mate? Perhaps. The Trump campaign prepared for a very different candidate and campaign than the one they now face.

I highlighted earlier this year how social media would start to meaningfully shape election outcomes, so the Harris campaign will be an interesting test of how this works in a large developed country like the US. The way I read the enthusiasm of the US electorate toward Harris, who had previously run an uninspiring presidential campaign in 2020 before being picked for Biden’s VP, is the enormous appetite for a more dynamic race. Harris’s weaknesses are well-known, and we will hear more about them in the coming weeks (I’m waiting for the Kremlin trolls to get going), but her energy is prompting a lot of bored American voters to look again at this race. All eyes are now on her VP pick, where there is reportedly a shortlist of 12 candidates.

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I suspect that given the compressed timeframe for her campaign she will likely name her running mate ahead of the DNC August 15th, but that’s a guess. My reading is that both Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro are strong candidates, but reportedly Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg is in the running too. He is far and away the party’s best communicator and the only one willing to go on Fox News repeatedly; this clip shows some of his “viral moments” on Fox.?

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In our conversations with clients this week, the sense of whiplash at the pace of events was evident. After months of presuming a Trump victory, the rapid shift in the outlook for the US presidential race has suddenly rendered a raft of Trump trades obsolete and forced many business leaders to scramble to work out how viable Kamala Harris is as a presidential candidate and what kind of policies might prevail in a future Harris White House. Is she really “to the left of Bernie Sanders” as one asked me? Would she support aid to Ukraine and continue Biden’s policy on Israel? Would she keep Gary Gensler on at the SEC? What about energy and anti-trust? Will she be tough on the tech industry, or, as a Californian, more lenient?

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What is evident judging by the questions coming in is that her positions are not well-known on the Street, and some hasty conclusions are being drawn on the basis of Harris being 1) Black 2) female and 3) from California. Add to this mix the announcement of US economic growth exceeding expectations at 2.3% in Q2 and a change in the tone of the murmurings from the Fed about rate cuts, and we are looking at quite a different set of economic and political factors than just a couple of weeks ago.??

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Rest assured that we will be digging deeper into how a Harris administration might look.But for now, I thought the most useful thing I could do would be to catch you up on how events have unfolded and share some of this “colour” with you so that you have a better feel for the context. In my interview clips below you will see more detail on my views, and as ever, you can get in touch directly to book a briefing for your team, board, or clients.

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Check out the July episode of the Navigator (our collaboration with the London Stock Exchange) too—the Navigator Watchlist tracks the geopolitical risks we think are most likely to move markets in the weeks ahead.

The Navigator - Episode 10 | Hot Politics Summer: Key Geopolitical Risks & US 2024 Elections

The latest episode of the Navigator is out!

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The Navigator is our digital playbook produced in conjunction with the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) , covering the key geopolitical risks that could impact the business and investment environment in just 5 minutes.

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In this episode we discuss the Hot Politics Summer and what to watch for next in US 2024 elections and more.

Our Views in the Press

What Would a President Kamala Harris Mean for US Foreign Policy? Tina Fordham on Bloomberg

Kamala Harris: More Than a Vibe Shift? US Foreign Policy Outlook | Tina Fordham on Bloomberg News

Surprises Democracy Can Bring: Tina Fordham Discusses a Harris White House with Frank Holland, CNBC.

Can Kamala Harris Win the White House? Tina Fordham on Bloomberg Surveillance

Follow Tina Fordham on Instagram for the latest geopolitical insights and updates.?

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