Just Park the Car

The impact that confirmation bias and overestimation can have in leadership.

We’ve all been there, sitting behind that slow driver who is a couple of km/h or mph below the speed we want to be driving.? It feels like it’s such an imposition, and a waste of time. We want to take action. We don’t want to get caught at that red light coming up. ?Even though the cost of this to us in terms of time is minimal, it can impact us greatly because it’s fighting against the chemicals in our brain which are programmed for action.? Similarly, one of my favourite observations is watching humans drive in a car park (I promise my life is more exciting than that makes it sound…)

It always baffled me: why do people drive around in circles in a crowded parking lot, spending extra minutes looking for the perfect spot, when they could easily head to the empty spaces towards the back and park immediately? For me, it’s a question of valuing time. I’ve always believed that my time is better spent walking a little farther than endlessly searching for a “win.”? Turns out, there’s more to this phenomenon than just a practical choice.? It’s about human psychology. The science behind this behavior reveals a deeper truth: people often overestimate their ability to control an outcome by simply putting more effort into it. It’s the belief that if we just “do something,” we can somehow make things work in our favor, even when the odds are against us.

In leadership, this bias toward action, fueled by our brain's innate ability for overestimation, can lead to costly missteps. Leaders often think they can influence factors beyond their control simply by pushing harder, working longer, or making bigger moves. But as I’ve learned, knowing the limits of your influence is key to smarter, more effective decision-making. Not to mention a crap-ton less meetings and other wastes of time we all want less of.? Let’s first dive into the science.

The Science Behind Overestimation

Overestimation is a cognitive bias where people believe they can influence outcomes more than they actually can. This bias is often driven by two psychological mechanisms:

1.???? Action Bias: Humans are wired to prefer doing something over doing nothing, even if action doesn't always lead to a better outcome. It's easier to believe that exerting more effort will give us control, even when circumstances are out of our hands. Leaders, like anyone else, tend to lean toward action, thinking, "If I just push harder or make more moves, I can solve the problem."

2.???? Illusion of Control: Another factor is the illusion of control, where we believe we can affect outcomes that are truly random or influenced by external variables. This stems from a desire for predictability and order, and in leadership, it can manifest in overconfidence about the ability to steer results in a favorable direction.

In a parking lot, drivers often believe they’ll get a better spot if they just keep searching.? It's the hope of beating the odds and getting that park that no one else could get. Followed by that smug walk like it was well worth the 5mins of sitting with your hazards on. ?When parking further away could save more time. In business, this mindset translates to thinking that every problem can be solved with more meetings, more ideas, or more actions.? We freak out a little bit and try and just throw ‘stuff’ at a problem or a lack of progress in an attempt to control an outcome even though there are many factors that are actually just simply out of our control.

Three Ways Leaders Can Avoid Overestimation and Make Smarter Decisions

1.???? Recognize When Control Is an Illusion Awareness is the first step. Leaders need to recognize when they’re overestimating their ability to influence an outcome. Ask yourself: "Is this something I can truly control, or am I just acting to feel like I’m making progress?" This reflective questioning can help you pause and make more objective decisions, and avoid taking the longer side-streets that just ‘feel better’ rather than slowly moving in traffic on the highway.

2.???? Embrace Evidence-Based Decision-Making Instead of acting out of the instinct to “do something,” focus on gathering data and using evidence to guide your actions. Rather than relying on gut feeling or wishful thinking, look for patterns, metrics, or past results to inform your next steps. Let the evidence lead your decisions instead of rushing toward a false sense of accomplishment. Always fall in love with evidence, not ideas.

3.???? Prioritize Strategic Patience Over Immediate Action Sometimes, the best decision is to wait or do less, especially when external factors are out of your control. Leaders can fall into the trap of believing that constant movement equals progress, but strategic patience often yields better outcomes (insert a pained metaphor about a tortoise and a hare here). Be mindful of when it's time to act versus when it's time to step back, observe, and let the situation evolve, or introduce new evidence and information to inform new actions.

Just park the bloody car.

Overestimation can be a hidden obstacle in leadership and have real negative impacts on productivity in teams. Like the driver circling the parking garage in search of a prime parking spot, leaders often chase “the win” or we at least just try and make ourselves feel better about making progress, thinking more action equals better results. But in reality, understanding when to act and when to step back is the key to smart, effective leadership. By being aware of your own biases, relying on evidence, and practicing patience, you can avoid the trap of overestimation and lead with clarity and confidence. Or at the very least, you can avoid costly time traps and stop adding "busy-work" to your teams' days! I promise you they'll thank you for it!

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