Just Mining Transition (5 of 12): Just Decarbonization Abatement Curves

Just Mining Transition (5 of 12): Just Decarbonization Abatement Curves

By Dr. Arnoldus M. van den Hurk and Dominic Gon?alves

Just Mining Transition 12 Posts Collection

#climatemining #mining

Nimby Paradox: The Elephant in the Mining Room

Total decarbonization is a long and expensive game. The rise of global warming and the collateral climate change as a collateral nail directly to the burning of coal, gas, and oil "energy mining." Mining energy requirements increase as mineral grade decreases. Long distances, harder rocks, and smaller mineral sizes imply exponential power and fuels demands per mineral unit. Most of these energy resources depend on fossil fuels. And, with all this, the low carbon economy that will require more minerals in 20 years than we have exploited in the last 2,000 arises. Thus, we have a Mining Carbon Footprint Paradox and reveal "the Elephant in the Room of Nimbies."

As a result, mining companies face significant challenges in reducing their carbon footprint in front of governments, communities, NGOs, and end consumers. Currently, London Metal Exchange (LME passport) and the mining asset certification institutions (JORC, NI 43-101, SAMREC, and others) demand green commitments to sell metals or certify new measured resources and proven reserves. The game will change from the "old" Corporate Social Responsibility to the modern Environmental, Social, and Governance rules (ESG, fourth post of this collection).

“The majority of mining companies are aware of the risks that climate change poses for their industry, and they’re taking action. But too many continue to underestimate the extent of the disruption that climate-related crises could deliver in the near future. Companies that still believe they can postpone taking action may end up paying a high price.” Boston Consulting Group (2020)

The Three Sides of the Decarbonization Coin:

As Robert Kiyosaki says in Rich Dad, "the coin has three sides." And it is a simile perfectly applicable to decarbonization (following figure).

The Heads Side of the Decarbonization Coin

• Clean Power in Mining: Renewables, Energy Storage and Energy Efficiency.
• Clean Fuels in Mining: Electromobility (road, marine, air), Green Hydrogen.
• Circular & "Urban" Mining: Metals, Construction, and Industrial Minerals. Recycling, and carbon capture, use, and storage (CCU&S).

The Tails Side of Decarbonization Coin

• Farming-based solutions: regenerative farming, cropping, and grazing
• Natural-based solutions: Forests, grasslands, rivers and lakes, rewilding, oceans, and coasts (Blue Carbon).
• Carbon removal technologies: Soil carbon sequestration, habitat restoration, reforestation/afforestation, carbon-negative concrete, Biochar, Biomaterials, Enhanced weathering, Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage (DACCS), and Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and geological Storage (BECCS).

The Edge Side of Decarbonization Coin:

• Bioenergy (biomass, biogas, and biofuels) because it reduces emissions and carbon capture and sequestration collaterally.
• Biofuels: ?diesel displacement and carbon capture.

In the next four posts, we will discuss these decarbonization instruments.

Some decarbonization literacy

It is essential to obtain some literacy about decarbonization. We refer to ?Foundations for science-based net-zero target setting in the corporate sector (September 2020); CDP, on behalf of the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi).

Abatement: Mining companies must aim to eliminate sources of emissions within their value chain at a pace and scale consistent with mitigation pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot. During a company's transition to net zero, compensation and neutralization measures may supplement reducing value chain emissions in line with science. When net zero is reached, emissions that are not feasible for society to abate may be neutralized with an equivalent measure of CO2 removals.

Neutralization: Reaching net-zero emissions requires neutralizing a company's residual GHG emissions with an equivalent amount of carbon removals. An effective neutralization strategy involves removing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it for a long-enough period to thoroughly neutralize the impact of any GHG that continues to be released into the atmosphere.

Compensation: While reaching a balance between emissions and removals is the end goal of a net-zero journey, companies should consider efforts to compensate unabated emissions in the transition to net-zero as a way to contribute to the global transition to net-zero.

And our specific literacy:

Net-Zero and Zero Emissions: A dangerous confusion emerging in the market is when some people mean Zero Emissions by saying Net-Zero.

• Net-Zero is the Balance Sheet between avoided emissions and carbon capture and storage.
• Going to Zero Emissions is the Profit & Loss forecast of the carbon footprint.

Net-Zero and Net-Positive:

Net-Zero is, therefore, a balance of sustainability. If we consider the world to be in an unsustainable position, Net-Zero's goal is to "sustain the unsustainable." Green Mining is Net-Zero.

However, Net-Positive is a positive, Just Regenerative economic, social, and environmental Balance. When the mining company develops more assets than liabilities. To better understand the concept, we recommend you visit this collection's post-1 Mining Transition Matrix and the book Net-Positive (Paul Polman and Andrew Winston).

Green Mining and Climate Mining:

• The Green Mining decarbonization route is Net-Zero.
• However, the Climate Mining decarbonization route is Net-Positive. To better understand these concepts, we recommend you consult post 2 of the collection: Just Mining Transition Routes.

Microsoft, a Net-Positive Archetype

Microsoft, a Net-Positive "life of company" decarbonization archetype. The objectives of Microsoft will be carbon negative by 2030, and by 2050 Microsoft will remove from the environment all the carbon the company has emitted directly or by electrical consumption since it was founded in 1975. The company launched an aggressive program to cut its carbon emissions by more than half by 2030 for its direct emissions and the entire supply and value chain. Source link.

Then, we have two questions for you:

1.???What is your mining company's decarbonization plan: Net Positive or Net-Zero?

2.???What is the decarbonization plan of your Mine: Net-Zero / Net-Positive standard in the Life of Mine Net-Zero / Net-Positive?

Life of Mine, the Regenerative Mining Paradigm

To better understand this paradigm (following figure), we performed a simulation on a mine that annually emits 1 million TnCO2e and the 2022-2050 decarbonization curves. Where:

Fossil Mining Model: 1 million CO2e per year; by 2050, it will accumulate 29 million TnCO2e.

Green Mining Model (Net-Zero 2050; using the Tale of the coin): plan for a 33% GHG reduction by 2030 and 75% by 2040. By 2050 it will accumulate 13.15 million TnCO2 emitted.

Climate Mining Model (Net-Positive, using the three sides of the decarbonization coin): It will reduce emissions at the same rate as green mining but also capture and sequester carbon through bioenergy and regenerative bioeconomy.

• In 2028, it will reach the point of Net-Zero.
• In 2030, it will be Net-Positive at 169 million TnCO2e.
• In 2040, it will be Net-Positive at 780 thousand TnCO2e.
• In 2050, it will be a Net-Positive 1.6 million TnCO2e; and the accumulated Net-Positive will reach 18.22 million TnCO2e
• If this mine began its life in 2003, emitting 1 million annual CO2e tons, with this model, it would get the Life of Mine Net-Positive by 2050.

Look to more than just Tails, but Heads and Edges to achieve Decarbonization Success. And could you do it today?

"Paradigms are powerful because they create the lens through which we see the world…?If you want small changes in your life, work on your attitude. But if you want big and primary changes, work on your paradigm." Dr. Stephen R. Covey (author of 7 habits for highly effective people)

Decarbonization Abatement Curves

To achieve the Climate Mining goals, we have three Instruments Toolboxes.

Climate Mining = Green (1) & Circular (2) Mining + Regenerative (3) Mining

“Decarbonization has become a major disrupter in the sector, dominating many discussions and presenting both risks and opportunities. Our survey respondents have elevated the risk to second place for 2022. Almost all mining and metals companies have set decarbonization targets but, without understanding how to reach them, are committing to potentially unrealistic goals. ” EY (2021)

Mining Decarbonization Quadrants

Decarbonization Matrix

The combination of Green Energies in Mining, Circular Mining (urban mining), and Regenerative Mining Toolboxes deals with Climate Mining Just Positioning using Emissions Reduction and Carbon Capture and Storage.

Mining Decarbonization Urgency Importance Quadrant

When we apply the Urgency Importance Quadrant, which we talk about in the post of Risks and Opportunities with these toolboxes, we can design an integrated decarbonization strategy for 2050, where:

• Scope 2 and 1 carbon footprint decarbonization prevails using Renewables, batteries, electromobility, and hydrogen.
• And Scope 3 enhances carbon capture, use, and storage.
• Scope 1 and 2 are Urgent, but Scope 3 is Important.

The decarbonization of clean energy gives us Climate Change Information.

Determining the decarbonization abatement curves give us Climate Change Knowledge.

Making Social Decarbonization give us Climate Change Wisdom (Knowledge + Ethics).”

Dr. Arnoldus M. van den Hurk (2022)

Regarding the Climate Mining plan proposed, the following questions arise that we will address in the next post:

How to manage the Clean Energies Tolbok to decarbonize?

How to avoid emissions with renewables, electromobility, and hydrogen?

To be continued …

The Just Mining Transition Collection Posts:

1.????Mining Just Transition Matrix

2.????Just Mining: Routes, Bridges and Destination

3.????Risks and Opportunities

4.????The Just ESG Equation

5.????Just Decarbonization Abatement Curves

6.????Clean Energies Toolbox

7.????Circular Mining Toolbox

8.????Carbon Removal and Sequestration Toolbox

9.????From Mining Closure Liabilities to Bioenergy Assets

10.?The Just Capital in the Life of Mine

11.?Just Sustainable Finance Toolbox

12.?How to develop your Just Mining Transition

Please feel free to let us know your feedback in the comments of the post or

·?????the REMIO LinkedIn group

·?????or by registering in our Climate Mining Newsletter.

·?????Dr. Arnoldus's email address: [email protected]

Dominic Gon?alves email address: [email protected]