Just Build Homes!
Tom Scaife
Partner, Knight Frank. Senior living consultancy, valuation, capital markets
Building more homes for older people will be part of the solution to simultaneously solving the housing crisis and NHS capacity issues. And it won't cost the government a penny.
In an era defined by unprecedented societal shifts, one critical issue looms large on the horizon: the rapid ageing of our population. As we grapple with this demographic transformation, it's clear that traditional approaches to governance and public services are no longer sufficient. To address this monumental challenge, we must embrace a technological revolution that can dramatically increase productivity and transform the way we care for and accommodate our senior citizens, with innovative housing solutions playing a central role.
The demographic shift towards an ageing population poses a fundamental question: how can a smaller working population support and care for a much larger elderly population? By 2050, there will be 1.5 billion people over the age of 65 globally, with advances in medicine potentially making living to 100 the norm. In the UK alone, the senior population is set to increase significantly over the next 25 years, with a substantial portion requiring care. Meanwhile, the working-age population is shrinking, creating a perfect storm of increased demand for public services and a reduced tax base to fund them.
The answer lies not in incremental changes or political half-measures, but in a radical reimagining of our approach to care and public services, with senior housing at the forefront of this revolution.
For too long, the focus has been on economic solutions and small efficiency gains. While these approaches have their place, they are insufficient to address the scale of the challenge we face. What we need is a technological revolution that can dramatically increase productivity across all sectors, particularly in health and social care, with a special emphasis on innovative housing solutions for seniors.
This isn't a fringe idea. It's a conclusion reached by thought leaders across the political spectrum, from former Chancellor Philip Hammond to communications strategist Alastair Campbell.. The consensus across the board is clear: we need to harness the power of technology to create more efficient, effective, and sustainable public services, with senior housing playing a pivotal role.
The urgency of this technological revolution becomes even clearer when we examine the current state of social care and senior housing. Thirteen years after the publication of the Dilnot report, its recommendations remain unimplemented. Political fear around social care reform, exacerbated by Theresa May’s disastrous "dementia tax" policy of 2017, has led to policy paralysis. As a result, we face a broken system with 150,000 staff vacancies and 2.5 million seniors unable to access the care they need, while suitable housing options remain scarce.
The solution to this crisis lies in a multifaceted approach that leverages technology and innovative thinking, with seniors housing as a cornerstone.
We need to use technology to increase NHS capacity, streamlining processes, improving diagnostics, and enhancing treatment options. Integrated care systems facilitated by technology can ensure better coordination between hospitals, primary care, and social care. Building more technologically enabled, age-appropriate housing at all levels of affordability can address multiple crises simultaneously. Meanwhile, leveraging AI and data analytics can help identify health risks early, allowing for preventative interventions that reduce the need for intensive care later in life.
One promising solution lies in the development of Independent Retirement Communities (IRCs). Research shows that building IRCs for 250,000 seniors in the next five years could save the NHS £5.6 billion and release more than 500,000 bedrooms back to the housing market. These communities, which prioritise independent living supported by on-demand services, can significantly reduce the burden on the NHS and social care system while improving quality of life for seniors.
The time for action is now. We cannot afford to wait another five years for meaningful reform.
The incoming government must prioritise this issue from day one, working closely with the private sector to create the conditions necessary for rapid innovation and investment in senior care and housing.
This is not just a matter of policy; it's a moral imperative. We have a responsibility to ensure that our ageing population can live with dignity, independence, and access to the care they need. Failure to act decisively now will result in a crisis that will affect every aspect of our society, from our economy to our social fabric.
The technological revolution in senior care and housing is not just an option; it's a necessity. By embracing innovation, leveraging data, and reimagining our approach to care, we can create a system that not only meets the needs of our ageing population but sets a new standard for social care globally. The challenges are great, but so too is the opportunity to create a more compassionate, efficient, and sustainable society for all generations, with innovative senior housing at its heart.
Managing Director at Mithra Capital Advisors Limited
4 个月Very good ideas to see how technology and affordable senior housing matter first an ageing population Tom. But this is not the answer to an ageing and increasing elderly population for the next decades unless they have a healthy lifespan which they do not after 70. The incoming government needs to give tax incentives for the population of adults starting from the late thirties to save for their care when they will need it. Just like ISAs for a home they should plan for their care otherwise housing may not be enough if thry suffer from diseases linked to ageing as it is more nursing homes they will need
Chief Executive at Audley Group Ltd
4 个月Very powerful it was too Tom.
Chair/ CEO at Funda??o Dr José Louren?o Júnior
4 个月Great to hear simple and clear facts, for a sector that is not always understood by real estate consultants
Director at Gaunt Francis Architects
4 个月Great presentation, Tom, you nailed it!
Director of Business Development at Wifinity with a focus on the Later Living and Social Housing Sector
4 个月A very insightful presentation Tom and you speak with such passion about the sector. Thank you for sharing the facts and figures