The Jurassic Park Problem – Planning for the current crisis and the one to follow.

Contributors:

Navin Talreja – Founding Partner, The Womb

Paul MacFarlane – Global Business & Brand Strategist, The 1101 Experiment 

Raghav Swamy – Brand Strategy Director, Leo Burnett

Kawal Shoor – Planner & Founding Partner, The Womb

Snehsikt Anand – Co-founder & Head Strategy, Brandball LLP

Mitali Bakhai – Senior Planning Manager, Grey 

Article and questions by:

Chirag Kaku – Strategy Head, First Economy

The Jurassic Park Problem

In a brilliant article, Eric Holthaus explains what he has termed ‘The Jurassic Park Problem’. In the movie, one of the main characters tries to switch off the power to an amusement park filled with dinosaurs, a system that was never meant to be powered down. When they switch it back on, chaos ensues, the dinosaurs escape, and we realize that when fragile systems break, they can break quickly. With a quarter of the world under lockdown, we are foolish to think we can bring our entire economy back online as it was with no problems. We have to create a new system.

This article is about the Jurassic Park problem brands might be facing.

There are differences between surviving current conditions and preparing for the post-pandemic world. Brands are getting innovative with pivoting tactics to deal with the sudden change in behaviour, viz. our reliance on online communication and tech., and are also staying optimistic with hopes on things returning to pre-pandemic normalcy. There is also a lot of talk about how the pandemic will change things for good but most of which is from an optimistic POV where we take the best of current adaptions and combine it with the best of previous ways.

Unemployment is already spiking globally, many are in a precarious financial situation, there is less job certainty and for many their retirement investments have fallen in value drastically. Not to mention the necessary but difficult government restrictions to control the pandemic. These shifts don’t only have a long-standing impact on behaviour and mental health, they are also precursors to an oncoming recession.

Recent consumer sentiment reports from across the globe have shown that people are moving through established phases, as shown in a report by DDB.

The consumer sentiment report by DDB Australia shows that people are mostly optimistic about the future and want to hear from brands. The Financial Stability Review by RBA said that Australia can withstand an economic downturn [link].

Chirag Kaku: Brands are doing a great job with social impact messaging, having said that, my question is - are we facing a Jurassic Park problem? Are we being overly optimistic about the switch-off and switch-on to ‘normalcy’?

Navin Talreja: Honestly, what brands are doing now has nothing to do with the Jurassic Park problem. In these times, consumers are looking at a brand’s behaviour very closely. A brand with a large social heart will be seen as more responsible and empathetic and can enhance its emotional affinity with consumers through “Acts of Good”. The leverage of this will happen as and when the economy opens and consumers are back to the point where they have to choose between brands. Brands will hope that consumers remember the things they did when times were not good. 

Paul MacFarlane: Most brands and agencies produced the EXACT same messaging to a disturbingly laughable scale of similarity. This industry has a deadly virus too. A virus called lack of creative differentiation courage. It’s awful.

Snehsikt Anand: I think that the biggest problem we are dealing with right now is that we are only talking about now. Even if we are talking about the future and the impact, we are talking about the negative impact. The concentration has gone away from what can we do to make it better. What we can learn and take forward from here to help the business recover and in turn the country recovers its economy.

Raghav Swamy: In his book “This is Marketing” Seth Godin talks about the difference between pattern interrupts and pattern match. Behavioural psychology teaches us that pattern interrupts are the most powerful behavioural change catalysts. COVID 19 is one of the largest “Pattern interrupts” that humankind has experienced in the recent past. Brands need to realize that there are some behaviours that will be altered forever and there are a few which will die down as time passes by. Unfortunately, there is no blueprint for how brands need to respond. Brands need to stay vigilant and identify pivots for their business and brand narratives to thrive in the new normal. Switch on and switch off mindset is only going to result in inertia and irrelevance for brands.

Navin Talreja: I think brands are more hopeful than optimistic at this time. Optimism can be a mindset but is also often supported by facts. And this is such a unique phenomenon we are experiencing that we have no data to support our optimism. This is unlike the last financial crisis of 2008 or anything else we have experienced as a human race. So I would say ‘hope’ more than optimism is our reaction to C-19 

Chirag Kaku: There is ample messaging and awareness regarding safety measures against COVID. Should we only focus on the dealing with the pandemic right now, not preparing for the other problem lurking in the shadow?

Navin Talreja: Governments are planning for the post lockdown. Learning from Wuhan and other countries in South East Asia. Various governments are looking at the gradual opening up of the economy. But the truth is the most pressing matter now is to flatten the curve and if most energies are being spent in that direction I would say it is par for the course given the situation.

Raghav Swamy: People are way past their threshold for social distancing and safety messages right now. The brands that were actively listening and nimble enough to execute good creative work have already done it. Brands need to understand that people are extremely apprehensive about everything right now. People have lost jobs or suffered pay cuts, and most of us are questioning any and all non-essential purchases right now. Brands need to start identifying vectors for growth in their respective industries. Understanding new consideration triggers, purchase barriers and creating unique opportunities will be the winning mantra for brands. Brands must pilot/test new offerings and business strategies that could potentially disrupt their entire industry.

Paul Macfarlane: I have an idea for a high tech super vaccine based on AI and more. But then, I’m just a creative ad agency exec. True creative thinkers should be setting the stage for the next always… the changes that will fix the increasingly stressed anxiety-filled world. But instead we’ll get more of the same.

Chirag Kaku: Studies show that people want to see brands being empathetic. Is it wrong or wise to assume the worst, and prepare for it?

Kawal Shoor: Reality is what people live through; hope is what people live for. Brands have an opportunity to be the modern sages – brands that uplift people’s spirits will seen a growing affinity for them.

Paul Macfarlane: People want other people to be empathetic. Brands and businesses are just another sort of people. But we have too much fake emotion, maudlin, vanilla boring ordinary work and few true human insights and emotional truths.

Raghav Swamy: Assuming the worst and preparing for it is arguably the most empathetic thing that a brand could possibly do. Being kind, thoughtful and delivering value to the customer is what empathy is all about. But there is a fine line between being empathetic and being opportunistic and brands need to be careful while evaluating their messaging and tone of voice during these turbulent times.

Chirag Kaku: Does it help to stay optimistic and assume the best? (go with mass sentiment)

Navin Talreja: It boils down to the individual, really. As leaders we have to make our people believe that we will turn the corner, we will reverse the curve and things will be better again. We will need to be optimistic and rally people, their moods, their emotions and their hopes. If not managed well we could be left with people with serious mental health issues which is not going to be ideal when we turn the corner.

Paul Macfarlane: It helps to stay optimistic and also look ahead, be prepared, etc. “Trust In Allah but tie up your camel.”

Kawar Shoor: There is a mid-way that we all know – you plan for the worst, but hope for the best. And then there is a thing few know – you plan for the best too ?

Chirag Kaku: Many brands are doing a great job pivoting during these times. How much energy should be spent on tactics of current situation v/s strategies for the future? 

Raghav Swamy: We live in an ephemeral digital world today, so it has become extremely essential for brands to develop speed and dexterity in their communication. But brands and industries are going through a huge existential crisis and cannot afford to ignore strategies for the future. Brands must start monitoring cultural and behavioural shifts and use their learnings to formulate business strategies for the future.

Navin Talreja: Brands from a communication point of view will have to think tactics and figure how they can do real, substantive things that will make their consumers feel that the brand is in it with them and is supportive in these times. 

Having said that, fundamental business models may be coming into question now. For instance offline vs online distribution. Brands and companies have discovered as they have been pushed into a corner that they are in fact capable of managing online even if they have had an offline mindset. This and many such new experiences will make brands rethink future strategies in terms of distribution, pricing, sourcing and evaluate the fundamentals of the way business was being done pre C-19. 

Chirag Kaku: How disruptive or bold should brands be during a time when audiences are sensitive?

Mitali Bakhai: Bold and disruptive is definitely not the tone of voice we want to look at currently when it comes to communication. Brands need to be sensitive to what consumers are currently feeling. Caring, friendly, empathetic, even light-hearted, would be more like it.

Paul Macfarlane: True human tenderness and love as well as expressing honest, real anxiety, rage and fear would be highly disruptive.

Navin Talreja: Bold and disruptive are ways of doing things and that can continue as long as we don’t forget the times that consumers are receiving the brand messages. So Sensitivity is the big word that needs to be kept in mind while planning brand messages.

Raghav Swamy: It is essential that the ideas pass the litmus test of improving consideration and purchase intent.

Chirag Kaku: Will brands continue their focus on social impact or will they switch on to selling mode after lockdown? What should guide the communication?

Navin Talreja: It would seem very transactional if brands switch to selling mode instantly. But it will need to be done. Challenge for marketers and the agencies would be how do you strike a balance; sell without giving consumers a feeling that they are being sold to. Charm rather than hammer. In most cases these are the best ways of selling even in the best of times. These times are different so we need to over-compensate.

Paul MacFarlane: Brands will try “purpose” then start brutal hard selling as soon as the cash starts flowing again. Any brand that wants to stand tall after the crisis but for that they should innovate and be revolutionary now.

Raghav Swamy: Brands will most definitely switch on selling mode once things settle down. Brands that identify thought narratives for people in the new normal will thrive in the future. People may go back to doing things just the way they used to but your brand could choose to tell the story that changes things forever. 

Kawal Shoor: I have always felt that brands “pretend: to focus on social issues. It is actually organizations that do that. Look at Parle, look at Tata, etc. Brands do it not for the good of society, but because their brand managers believe that that is the best way to grow the brand, and increase shareholder wealth. Altruism is more often a strategy, pretending to be a philosophy.

Chirag Kaku: Should brands maintain momentum with brand innovation beyond the lockdown?

Kawal Shoor: Absolutely. Lockdown, or no lockdown, organizations need to innovate to always bring alive the ‘next best’ solution to any problem. Especially in India, where true ‘value innovations’ or ‘service innovations’ will remain game changers for a long time.

Navin Talreja: Desperate times call for desperate measures so yes absolutely innovation should never stop. The Post C19 times will have new consumer mindsets, new needs, new behaviours and brands that cater to this the fastest will obviously benefit. Teen Vogue in the US creating a virtual prom for high school students is a great example of identifying a need and innovating.

Raghav Swamy: Consumers are not going to be the same after the lockdown. Even if they buy and use the same products as they did before their mindsets are going to be drastically different. The questions they are asking, the parameters of evaluation and even the place of purchase are all going to change. Brand innovations that tap into this marked shift in behaviours are going to emerge victorious in the long run. 

Chirag Kaku: What brands or businesses would have an edge over others if the recession should hit?

Kawal Shoor: New brands will struggle, while brands that command strong affinity, and habit will see it through better.

Navin Talreja: Businesses with an unleveraged balance sheet and strong cash reserves will certainly have an edge. Businesses with good quality people, loyal and committed to the company will have an edge. Businesses that will be agile to adapt to the new will have an edge. 

From a brand point of view, brands that can make themselves have a stronger share of heart rather than only a share of mind will benefit. However, in recessionary times consumers are conscious of how much they spend, so brands that can manage their back end cost structures and pass the benefits on to consumers will certainly benefit more. 

Raghav Swamy: The answer will also depend on what Industry the brands belong to. Forecasts and predictions suggest that industries like healthcare and e-commerce will witness a surge. Behavioural trends suggest that personal hygiene and grooming will become lucrative industries with growing demand even during the recession. But industries like automobiles, real estate and retail are going to struggle when recession hits. 

Paul Macfarlane: I say the brands or businesses who walk and talk their talk, stay calm, stay human and supportive with no bullshit will have an edge over others. 

Shehsikt Anand: I believe in fact that the market will not be dominated by just the biggies. We are looking at a Nirma-Surf situation again. I feel that there will be a huge number of small business which will sprout and will prosper. Right now, the products are flying off the shelf due to panic buying. People are concerned about the product and not the brand. This attitude will continue in the post-pandemic scenario and create an opportunity for multiple small businesses to enter the market.

Raghav Swamy: The Pandemic is a black swan event. On the face of it, it may seem like bigger brands have a lot more to lose and smaller brands have a lot more to gain but outcomes are largely dictated by the brand’s perspectives. If a small brand looks at this as an opportunity to capture market share by going beyond the call of duty then it could, by all means, turn the tables for itself. 

Kawal Shoor: The other view is that organizations with deeper pockets will do better, while small businesses will suffer. See what’s happening to the payouts scenario in America!

Paul Macfarlane: Smaller businesses will have to become more captivating and attractive during the virus age.

Chirag Kaku: What steps should brands or businesses take to safeguard themselves?

Paul Macfarlane: Brands must not play safe.

Kawal Shoor: Brands bust tread the fine line between preserving for today, and investing in tomorrow. There are no smart answers here. The ones that manage this balance right will emerge relatively unscathed.

Snehsikt Anand: As far as the recession is concerned, it is a temporary impact. Let us not pay too much heed to it. It will take some time to correct but everyone will find their ground in the future. It is all about patience and introspection.

Chirag Kaku: Should brands focus on changes in communication or in business? What should brands invest in most?

Raghav Swamy: Brands must start developing a publisher mindset. Given the situation we are in, brands that focus on developing a thoughtful communication strategy for the short term and the medium term will become forces to reckon with. But, in the long-term brands that innovate and identify profitable business pivots will thrive.

Kawal Shoor: Changes in communications can be done faster, while changes in business require time. So a short answer would be – do things for the short and the long term.

Chirag Kaku: How much of a role does data play in strategizing now? Do we have enough?

Navin Talreja: With less money to spend, brands will rely a lot on the digital medium. So data on consumer behaviours will help target and retarget consumers better to handhold them on the path to purchase from Awareness to Sale and Advocacy.

Mitali Bakhai: Honestly, data is just as important as it was pre-pandemic. What will matter, always, is how we unearth HUMAN insights from the data available. Personally, I’ve seen myself relying on both real-time observations and social listening data to get a grasp of how consumers currently feel and I’ve found the latter very useful. 

I do also see a lot of industry-specific platforms already having some reports in place that we can refer to.

Paul MacFarlane: We have plenty data. But data, when applied to the CORRECT WHY, is wonderful. We must get valuable insights, the WHY, and not be satisfied with just the HOW.

Chirag Kaku: Is this period going to be different from previous rescissions? Are there lessons to be learnt from the previous recession? 

Kawal Shoor: This one’s deep…the cuts are going to hurt more. In our lifetimes at least, there hasn’t been a precedent. And hence relying on the past would be dangerous when it comes to planning for this one.  

Paul Macfarlane: I have no idea whatsoever. People are still people no matter what else changes…