June-July 2024 (summer edition 1)

Here is the 1st summer edition of this newsletter. The second (August-September) will follow in September.

Time is of essence

The fabric of the universe is made up of energy, dynamics, matter and time.

The second law of thermodynamics highlights the essential notion of the "arrow of time" as it appears in physics and biology: the continual march of a thermodynamic system, from lesser to greater entropy, at any given temperature, defines an arrow of time. Stephen HAWKING identifies three arrows of time:

• Psychological: our perception of an inexorable flow (cf. H. BERGSON).
• Thermodynamic: distinguished by the growth of entropy.
• Cosmological: distinguished by the expansion of the universe.

Thus, although difficult to conceive and define, time is intuitively felt by humans and mathematically proven by motion (speed and acceleration), which cannot be expressed without it. Furthermore, the merging of time and space into a single four-dimensional continuum (spacetime) is essential to general relativity, where spacetime is curved by mass and energy, particularly gravitation.

So when Tamás Gáspár said at the BBU Summer school "Foresighting the Future":

GRAVITATION: the pulling power of the future

it rang a bell in the back of my mind. Gaston Berger made a clear distinction between the foresight discipline developed by intellectuals and the foresight attitude, an innate aptitude available to every human being. If time is as much a part of the intrinsic nature of our mind as it is a part of the intrinsic nature of the universe, then the 'mass' that is the future in this arrow of time could logically exert a powerful gravitational pull on us.

The ability of human beings to dream and to project themselves into the future through the imagination is undoubtedly the best reflection of this gravitational power of the future.

So why is it so difficult for us to shape our own future when we have the innate tools to do so?

Energy is the driving force

Our colleague futurist, Tyler Mongan , recently described what he calls "The Predictive Brain":

The "Free Energy Principle (FEP)" was postulated by neuroscientist Karl Friston. In his framework, "Free Energy" is the measure of the difference between the brain's predicted sensory experience and the actual sensory experience. One goal of the brain is to minimize "free energy," resulting in a reduction of surprise, uncertainty, and prediction errors. We can call this the Predictive Brain.

In France, the neurophysiologist, professor at the Collège de France, Alain BERTHOZ, in his remarkable book La simplexité (2009, Ed. Odile Jacob / Berthoz, Alain (2012). Simplexity: Simplifying Principles for a Complex World), has clearly shown that in order to minimise free energy, the brain resorts to the process of simplexity, which he defines as follows:

Simplexity, as I understand it, is the set of solutions found by living organisms so that, despite the complexity of natural processes, the brain can prepare the act and project its consequences. These solutions are simplifying principles that enable us to process information or situations, taking into account past experience and anticipating the future. They are not caricatures, shortcuts or summaries. They are new ways of posing problems, sometimes at the cost of a few detours, to arrive at faster, more elegant and more effective actions.

Time to teach simplexity in every course on foresight!

Thus it is becoming increasingly clear that people need to manage their energy better. Especially in a complex, infobesive world that drains energy. Simplexity, like Ockham's razor and the worldview, is one of the ways to avoid wasting energy and to focus as much positive energy as possible on building the future.

La vision du monde, c’est une sorte de “système personnel d’organisation” qui nous permet de filtrer des quantités phénoménales d’informations qui se déversent dans notre cerveau, “depuis les données sensorielles jusqu’aux messages les plus discursifs”, “afin que notre environnement prenne assez de sens pour nous permettre de décider et d’agir”. Thomas Gauthier Source

Translation: Worldview is a kind of "personal organising system" that enables us to filter the phenomenal amount of information pouring into our brains, "from sensory data to the most discursive messages", "so that our environment has enough meaning to enable us to make decisions and act".

Agency is the tool for shaping the future

Agency: a human being's ability to act, its capacity to act on the world, things, beings, to transform or influence them. Human agency implies that people actually make choices and impose them on the world (action theory). How people come to make decisions, by free choice or other processes, is another matter. However, there is an ongoing conflict between the "structure" (social or economic factors) that limits action and the natural tendency of human beings to act independently and make their own free choices, between determinism and indeterminacy, between the propensity for individual behaviour (individualism) and the need to act in concert to be effective.

How can agency be developed, strengthened, enhanced?

1. Recognizing our mental traps

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2. Protopia, somewhere between utopia and dystopia

Protopia refers to a world with a constant collective will to change and improve, but where we also expect to have to evolve. Perhaps the concept is reflecting a vision of a more achievable future?

Red pill or blue pill? Solarpunk or Black Mirror? There are dualisms in ?science-fiction. Mostly between two extreme future scenarios: utopia or dystopia. There is an alternative to these two very radical options. Perhaps, the future we reach day after day is one protopia. Protopia, a term coined by Kevin Kelly, it is neither a utopia nor a dystopia. Rather, it is a society that tries to constantly work on improving itself, tackling challenges incrementally and with a growth mindset. A society that encounters obstacles, falls, sometimes seems to retreat, but proceeds. From Futuroprossimo.it (full article here).

3. The future belongs to you!

Because children ARE the future, any action to develop the agency must start with them. That's what Richard Watson understood so well.

In May 1968, some rather naughty students wrote something on the side of the Sorbonne University in Paris. It said: "The future will only contain what we put into it now." Quite right. Full marks. Whatever our history, whatever our present, our future remains unwritten. But our future is created by what you, then others, decide to do today and every day thereafter. So whether you want to build space rockets, grow vegetables in underwater cities, collect space junk, or just plant some trees here on Earth, there is nothing stopping you. Never let anyone tell you otherwise. Everything is possible until it isn't. The future belongs to you, not to us. Be curious about it. Be passionate about it. Engage. Influence it. Shape its contours. Fill in the blanks. Make the future fantastic! Richard Watson here in Greek.

Enjoy a great summer!