June Equity Analyst Insights
This month features insights on: Wayfair, MediaTek, CooperVision, e.l.f., Dell, Lucid, Soft Drinks category and Coinbase.
For additional notes on Apple and Chipotle, please contact us.
Wayfair (W): NielsenIQ reported strong YoY change in Monthly Active Customers, Average Order Value, and Orders per Active Customer this past April. This is the third month in a row that we have reported positive growth in Monthly Active Customers. This growth was both reflected in NielsenIQ’s estimates for Q1 2024 and called out on Wayfair’s last quarterly earnings call.
Next month’s report will include data for Way Day sales, so we will soon see whether Wayfair’s performance will continue to stay positive throughout this next month and quarter. ??
MediaTek (2454.TW): Management guided revenue to rise in the “mid-teens” y/y in 2024, with growth in the Mobile segment to exceed that rate. The guidance implies a meaningful Mobile revenue deceleration in 2H, consistent with GfK’s expectations as significant inventory was built in 4Q23/1Q24. GfK believes a strong high-end smartphone market will be key for MediaTek as current Dimensity 9300 success has occurred without share gains.? ?
CooperVision (COO): GfK sell-out data continued to capture share gains for CooperVision in the Daily lens market, which are projected to continue through the rest of the year. The brand’s larger exposure to private-label Daily lenses allows them to keep a lower price point than competitors. As a result, GfK feels the brand has room to raise prices more aggressively through the rest of the year, likely to benefit revenue share and subsequently, sell-in revenue.
e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (ELF): NielsenIQ data provides insight on sales performance in tracked channels for e.l.f. Beauty and its competitors. In its recent Q4 2024 earnings, the company commented that it expects Net Sales in tracked channels to moderate to around 20% YoY growth through the summer. This would mark a slowdown from current levels of ~33% $ and Unit y/y growth, while TDP continues to grow as the company expands shelf space in CVS and Walmart. ELF also commented that it is not taking price after sustaining increases through 2023, while competitors continue to issue low single-digit price increases in 1H24, offering ELF an even stronger value proposition.
Dell (DELL): Dell’s share has declined y/y since 2023, as shown by GfK data, dragged by the mix shift in the Consumer channel towards lower-cost devices, while Commercial PC market upside remains limited. However, a Corporate PC refresh cycle, spurred by the Windows 10 EoL, is expected to drive demand upside in 2H24. With Dell well positioned in both premium Consumer and Commercial PCs, especially with the vendor’s aggressive early portfolio of AI PCs, these declines are likely to turn around in 2024 and leave Dell in one of the strongest positions within the broader PC market.
Lucid Group Inc. (LCID): NielsenIQ data has been projecting steady growth in the Lucid preorder backlog to start 2024. Our estimate has grown 10% from recent lows with April ending at over 19,000 unfilled orders representing a reversal from the past 2 years of declines. The recent inflection has been driven by fewer cancellations and steady new order volume.?
Soft Drink Category (KO, PEP, KDP): NielsenIQ's equity analyst team has observed interesting trends in the battle for 2nd place within the Soft Drinks Category. Coca-Cola leads the xAOC + Convenience market Sales Volume Share as of the 1 Week Ending 4/27/2024. While 2nd and 3rd place has seen a lengthy battle between the brands Pepsi and Dr. Pepper.
For more on this report, please contact us
Coinbase (COIN): Q1 2024 Reported Net Revenue spiked up to $1.737 billion, a +136.0% YoY change, due to higher crypto asset prices and crypto asset volatility which both increased sharply in March according to Coinbase, Inc. Moreover, NielsenIQ data indicated that almost all monthly indices in April 2024 reverted to the level in February 2024. The slowdown in April is in line with COIN's guidance where they are seeing >= $300 million in transaction revenue, which is approximately 27% of Q1 reported transaction revenue ($1.1 billion).
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