June 6 am, FX/S&P/BTC Commentary

Euro-1.1235. Well, the dollar bulls came in yesterday and defended where they should have--the 1.1300 to 1.1324 level but now the Euro is on important support at 1.1220 down to 1.1200. Does 1.1200 hold and the Euro makes another run above 1.1300? Sure, it could and with NFP expected to be bad tomorrow, that may just be the match that lights the fire for a rally. However, the left hand chart is the weekly. You can see going back one year, there are three bearish TDST lines, which are the yellow horizontal lines starting near the middle of the chart with the subsequent two lower then the previous ones. This pegs the bigger picture trend as down. The closest TDST resistance line comes in at 1.1448 which also happens to be a pivot high. If the Euro does get some legs in here, as long as below 1.1448, look at rallies as selling opportunities. The yellow squiggly line on the bottom of the chart is the 10-week average range. Last week, the average hit 108 points. This is the exact same level the indicator touched back in late 2014 when the Euro was trading around 1.3000. From there, there Euro started a multi-month decline, hitting 1.05 in early 2015 with the average weekly range expanding to close to 400 points! It was a great time to be a directional volatility trader. Anyway, I expect a similar move to the downside soon which will target .9000 at least. My only worry is now most technical and fundamental commentary I read and listen too are bearish the Euro--jeez a few months ago most were saying the dollar was going down so the view that the Euro is going lower is a crowded one so I wouldn't be surprised to see a rally to suck everyone in thinking the Euro is going to 1.1700. Don't let a rally fool you though--it will be a great time to sell as an old trader friend of mine would always ask--"what's the best view on the mountain"--the summit obviously. Anyway, for today, resistance lies at 1.1256 and then 1.1286. Support comes in at 1.1220, 1.1200 and then stronger between 1.1173 and 1.1167. No strong opinion on direction today as at current levels, the Euro is above today's mid but below yesterday's which was 1.1262 and I don't expect much with NFP tomorrow.  

S&P-2835. At the dead high, wall street banks came out and warned of a "melt-up", now they are bearish??? Jeez, someone should make an indicator out of this. Anyway, at current levels I have no strong conviction although in the bigger picture I am still bullish and expect new highs--just don't now if the low near 2720 was "the low" but I would be cautiously bullish in here. There is resistance at 2840 so a print of 2850 should be followed by a quick rally to 2890. Support comes in at 2814 and then 2800 down to 2775. If "the low" is in, any pullback should hold 2775.

BTC-7830. At current levels, BTC is dead smack in a broad range of 7500 to 8250 so the next 300-400 dollar move is 50/50 in which direction but the bigger picture view has not changed and that is BTC will make a run at 10k soon which is the first target in a much bigger uptrend. The key level to hold however is 6800. If the market is going up however, I think sell-offs should be brief and shallow, holding the 7500 level in the worst case.