July 24, pm FX/Crypto Update

BTC-8260. The right hand chart is the 50x150 point and figure chart. This means the current direction/trend has to continue for $50 before updating and to change the trend, the market has to trade $150 in the opposite direction. Green X's mean uptrend and red 0's mean downtrend. Anyway, the P&F chart does a good job of showing the disconnect/reconnect of price action between 7300 and 6800. Can see in early June, BTC broke down hard and then traded sideways until mid July when it rallied strongly back above 7300. If you were to count the number of X's and 0's at each $50 price increment, you'll find a very low count between 6800 and 7300 as compared to prices above and below--it will look like 2 bell shaped curves that meet at the tail. Prices either move away from low volume trading levels or move right through them and continue until the next low volume trading zone. The move back above 7300 reconnected to the previous trading zone and left a lot of trapped money below 6800--anyone who sold below 6800 to go square or go short, are scrambling to get those positions back which is probably the biggest reason BTC is outperforming it's cousins. There is good resistance between 8400 and 8550. 8550 was the spike high back in May before the collapse to 6k so will act as resistance since that level attracted strong selling then. Support comes in at 7850 and then the 7600 level. No change in view in bigger picture--as long as have space below the market, look for it to continue higher to 9k and above.  

Euro-1.1680. Not much going on here. Seems the Euro is a vehicle to get in and out of crosses as that's where the action seems to be--Euro and Yen crosses while the Euro stagnates. Today's range was only 63 points(which is what it was at 8am) and couldn't even expand on the day. This just brings in the 10-day average daily range. The 10-week average range is about 200 points and we're only at 100 so far this week, so the good news is there are 100 points or so before the week closes to try and capture. Today's mid-point is 1.1686 and we're closing right on it. If the Euro is able to move strongly tonight in either direction during Asia(which is unlikely since Asia has been very quiet), look to fade the move into support or resistance. Resistance comes in at 1.1717 and then the 1.1735 to 45 zone. Support comes in at 1.1650/45. Buy a wide range hourly bar tonight by 9pm below 50 with stops below 40 looking for quick profit. Key is the bar has to be above 20 points in range. London open is still where the action is. Bigger picture, I am still bearish but I have to assume there are big stop orders on both sides of the market and in recent times, the first move is a head fake to clean the stops out.