July 2024: Peripheral Perspectives - Summer Slowdown

July 15, 2024

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HELLO, Peripheral Thinkers?! ????

In the Northern Hemisphere, it is full-on summertime!

This means leaving the office early to spend time with friends and family. It also means long weekends and vacation trips to the beach, mountains, and lakes. It’s time for barbecues, family reunions, longer lunches, and taking a breather after a busy first half of the year.

For business leaders, it also means you may need to adjust your third-quarter growth expectations.

Here comes the ‘Summer Slowdown.’

Business productivity will slow whenever your ‘summer’ is—July or January.

It’s a given.

Or is it?

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Let’s check the periphery.

A Peripheral Perspectives – Summer Slowdown

For decades, I’ve seen leaders deliver all-company messages in the first part of the third quarter. Their messages often include a call for continued focus through July, August, and September. “We’ve had a good first half of the year. I know we are heading into the ‘Summer Slowdown,’ but don’t let that stop you. Let’s keep it going.”

Outside the apparent reason for taking stock of progress through the first half of the calendar year, senior leaders also use this time to acknowledge that the summer months are less productive. They know it because the data proves it.

Or does it?

Is the data a result of the natural order of things or a self-fulfilling prophecy?

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DATA DOESN’T LIE

Is the ‘Summer Slowdown’ for business growth real?

Research says, 'Yes.'

According to Forbes, 36% of US workers say they are less productive in the summer, and 34% say they slack off when their boss goes on vacation.

A Captivate Office Pulse study found that productivity can drop by as much as 20% during the summer. Why? According to a Harvard Business School study, sunny days can directly decrease worker efficiency.

Other factors that can contribute to a summer slump include:

• Brain fatigue and eye strain: Long days of overworking can lead to brain fatigue and eye strain
• Hot weather: Studies have shown that cognitive abilities can decline, with one study finding a consistent performance decrease at temperatures just over 75°F.
• Fewer people in the office: summer vacations, which can delay projects and critical approvals.
• Distracting noises: Random noises like lawnmowers and leaf blowers can be distracting.

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July is the most common month for vacations in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas January and February are the most popular months in the Southern Hemisphere.

Depending on where you live—Northern or Southern Hemisphere, July or January—the data says there is a Summer Slowdown!

Which reasons resonate with you and your business’s summer slowdown?

• The lack of access to decision-makers and key contributors.
• Burnout from a fast and furious first half of the year.
• Unmotivated or irresponsible employees.
• Distracting outdoor noises.
• Hot weather.

This is a quick note if you think I’m anti-vacation or pro-growth at all costs. My definition of productivity and growth supports the need for downtime, frivolity, and silliness.

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THE FLIP SIDE

If productivity slumps in the warm months, we can assume colder months are more productive, right?

According to MedExpress, HRreview, and Forbes, productivity declines in cold weather months.

Some employees feel less productive during the winter months.?Cold weather can impact productivity in several ways, including:

• Mental clarity - Extreme cold can cause mental fog and sluggishness, making it harder to focus and complete complex tasks.
• Physical effort - The body must work harder to maintain core temperature, which can lead to fatigue.
• Distractions - Bundling up, taking breaks to warm up, and breathing in cold air can all be distracting. Not to mention amplified external sounds with fewer leaves on trees.
• Seasonal Affective Disorder - Shorter days and less sunlight can lead to winter fatigue—a symptom of seasonal affective disorder.?This can cause irritability, hopelessness, and difficulty concentrating.

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How does anything get done in countries with locations above the 55°N parallel?

The data shows productivity slumps, whether warm or cold weather in July or January.

What’s a leader to do?

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Whether. Weather. Whatever.

We could review each data point presented above and find a source that contradicts it.

Whether you believe the summer slowdown is real because of vacations or

That the weather plays a significant role in business productivity or

There are annual periods of slow growth for whatever reason…

You are wrong, and ...

You’re right.

You are wrong because there’s evidence to the contrary.

You are right because your perception informs your reality.

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For instance, if you believe that there is a 3rd quarter Summer Slowdown in America, then you believe industries are generally flat in July, August, and September.

During the 3rd quarter of 2023, Nasdaq reported exceptional profit growth in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology / AI sectors.

But wait… maybe the companies in these sectors are in the Southern Hemisphere, where July, August, and September are winter and early spring.

Nope.

We concluded above that there is low productivity in cold weather.

Maybe it’s because of the global nature of Nasdaq companies.

Double nope.

Only 7 of the Nasdaq 100 are companies incorporated outside the USA.

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You are right about annual periods of slow growth because your company has experienced them for 5 or 10 consecutive years. The data proves this exists in other companies in your industry or your industry in general.

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I’m not referring to seasonal industries like snowmobile rentals. However, I have seen snowmobile races on open lakes in the summer.

Sorry for the tangent, but it was too good to pass up.

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So, what’s the cause of slowing growth, and what’s the cure?

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THE PERIPHERAL THINKERS? WAY

There are rarely single contributors to a situation. Even my nemesis—the dreaded status quo of conventional wisdom—has multiple elements contributing to its existence.

Summer Slowdowns or Winter Weaknesses are no different.

If we agree that the cause is the combination of multiple things, including a self-fulfilling prophecy, then what is the cure?

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The cure is also a combination of some Peripheral Thinking? skills and your willingness to believe in what’s possible.

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You can accept the conventional wisdom of summer slowdowns and adapt your business to that reality. Or you can challenge conventions to create a different reality. It is your choice.

Peripheral Thinkers? challenge conventions. They create tangible, measurable, and sustainable realities for themselves, their businesses, clients, and industries.

They use Peripheral Thinking? skills to explore, reason and imagine what’s needed to create a more productive reality. We create what’s needed to grow when others are flat or declining.

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How?

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Explore

‘Investigating’ (aka drilling) is one of the Peripheral Thinking? skills in the exploring skills category. ‘Investigating’ examines things and situations to ensure the most is learned and discovered. You take nothing at face value. You continue drilling to get to the core. What makes a local restaurant successful for generations? What drives Amazon’s consistent growth? Why do people prefer one airline over another? When you get your answer, ask “why?” Repeat “Why?” four more times.

For those unfamiliar with the 5 Whys technique, it is a method for determining the root cause of a problem. The same method can be used to uncover the causes of success—the Peripheral Thinkers? way.

The more ‘Investigating’ you do, the more content you uncover—ideas, principles, processes, approaches, solutions. This content is your evidence.

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Reason

‘Sifting’ is one of the Peripheral Thinking? skills in the reasoning skills category. It uses logic to decide the strengths of a position and where the truth lies. Therefore, the more situations you ‘investigate’ from varied sources, the more insights you’ll uncover while ‘Sifting.’

You can use whatever analysis method(s) you prefer:

Formal,

Informal,

Mathematical, or

Symbolic.

The point is to bring structure to your evidence to determine the strength of individual elements—separately and combined. Here, you identify the truth(s) that will eventually make up your new reality.

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Imagine

Despite what some may think, imagining is not just simply daydreaming or hypothesizing. ‘Interpreting’ is a Peripheral Thinking? skill in the imagining skills category. ‘Interpreting’ uses the truths identified from ‘Sifting,’ which were collected using your ‘investigating’ skill.

‘Interpreting’ is perhaps my favorite skill and the one I reference most in my keynotes, advisory, and LinkedIn post content. ‘Interpreting’ takes seemingly unrelated elements from the periphery and combines them in new ways.

Do you see how the elements may be seemingly unrelated to people who do not know the ‘Investigating’ and ‘Sifting’ work that went into finding and selecting the elements?

‘Interpreting’ combines truths in unique ways, using fresh perspectives to create inventive solutions that defy conventions and propel companies beyond obstacles.

Nearly every experience you have, including reading this newsletter, offers opportunities to see the world from different perspectives. To challenge conventions, discover new approaches, and combine your findings with other insights to create something new for your business or industry.

Because of this, Peripheral Thinkers? don’t have to accept summer slowdowns or winter weaknesses as the way it is.

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You decide what to believe using your ‘Investigating’ and ‘Sifting’ skills. You decide your business’s reality based on your ‘Interpreting’ skill. You determine your company’s future based on what you choose to believe and act upon.

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The cause is internal, external, or a combination of both.

The cure is your ability to apply a few skills to create the reality you want. AND believing in that reality.

That is the Peripheral Thinkers? way.

Now What?

If your business experiences a summer slowdown and you want to change that, today is a good day to create a different reality. Challenge the conventions that support the slowdown. Find companies and industries that don’t have this issue. Investigate, reason, and interpret what you can do differently to create a different outcome.

The cure begins today, or the cause will be ignored until the 3rd quarter of 2025.

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Until next time… I’ll be looking for you in the periphery!

Additional News

• To my friends at ACA International : I look forward to seeing you and spending time with you starting July 21st.
• Archives of all “Break All The Rules” (fka Peripheral Thinkers? Newsletter) are available at: https://www.pauldanielsjr.com/newsletter.

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