The Judicial Reform and its Impact on Israeli Security
Monfort Advisory Brief / July 2023
The unprecedented wave of Israeli military reservists announcing they will halt their service in the IDF if the judicial reform passes has only increased since the legislation was passed. Of the numerous mass protests, the most influential effort has come from reservists in the country’s elite military units threatening to refuse to report for duty. With some 10,000 already announcing the suspension of their service, the impact of this watershed event has far-reaching consequences for Israel’s security.
First, and perhaps most importantly, losing so many officers at once puts the army at a clear and immediate risk of being unprepared for war. The refuseniks mainly come from elite units, primarily pilots and commando units, who would be at the forefront of any special military operations. Their training is immense, and they are nearly impossible to replace, especially at such numbers. The trend is also likely stronger than currently reported, with concerns of a “silent” wave of refusals, with officers deciding not to renew their contracts and people choosing not to enlist. Overall, the IDF Chief of Staff has been warning about a severe blow to the military’s capability and capacity, which is the most harmful blow to Israel’s security. The distrust of the military in its government is a dire risk that would take a long time to undo.
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While this is the most glaring and severe threat to Israel’s security ushered in by the judicial reform, there are several more implications, as follows:
One clear threat is the weakness Israel has been showing in recent months, the seeds of discord within its military ranks, the social chaos, and the collapse of the bonds that bind Israeli society together. This puts Israel in a vulnerable position, which is not lost on Israel’s opponents, such as Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Identifying Israel’s weakened position, these actors are likely to grow bolder and more daring, more easily persuaded to provoke. Hezbollah has already been pushing the envelope with a growing presence near the border, something it would be more reluctant to try before. Israel’s enemies know that the government has very little currency to enlist the country into a military escalation and that it would put a severe strain on Israeli society and put it to the test.
In addition, the judicial overhaul has severely strained Israel’s relationship with the US, which has a clear implication for Israel’s security, supported almost entirely by American aid and protection. This holds for American protection over Israel's security interests in the UN and the region, but, more importantly, billions of American dollars. If this stops, Israel’s security will be fatally damaged. Without American support, Israel’s ability to defend itself against Iranian or any aggression would be significantly reduced.