Judging 61

In 1961, Roger Maris broke Babe Ruth’s single-season home run (HR) record, which was set originally in 1927.?In the American League (AL), this record still stands 61 years later.?In 1961, the record was controversial because Maris hit this milestone the year the league expanded the number of games from 154 to 162. The record was asterisked even though Maris had seven more plate appearances—698 to Ruth's 691.??

Today's controversy is that everyone who broke the 61 HR mark came from the National League (NL) during the steroid era. In 2010, Major League Baseball (MLB) took steps to clean the game from the controversy created by the steroid era (1987-2009). Since MLB implemented the new rules, no player has cracked the 60 HR threshold. However, in 2017, one player who did chase that threshold—Giancarlo Stanton—established what I believe is the actual, untainted NL home run record when he hit 59 HRs.?In the 2022 season, Stanton's fellow teammate Aaron Judge is on a similar trajectory to challenge what many baseball fans regard as the accurate single-season HR record.?

Before we discuss Judge's chase, I thought it would be a good idea to put the American League single-season record into perspective and what it takes to clear the illustrious 60 home-run threshold. The first player to crack the 60 HR threshold was Babe Ruth. Ruth, an elite pitcher, moonlighted in the outfield and became the iconic home run hitter who transformed the sport. In 1920, when Ruth was 25-year-old, he became a full-time hitter and hit 54 HR with 617 plate appearances (PA), and 59 HRs in 1921 with 693 PA. Ruth would not come close to chasing the 60 HR threshold until 1927.??

During the summer of the 1927 season, Ruth had been outslugged by a 24-year-old first baseman named Lou Gehrig who had 35 HRs and 127 RBIs by the end of July. Ruth had 34 home runs and 94 RBI. While Ruth was 32, he still hit HRs at a 7.66% clip per plate appearance (HR PPA) compared to Gehrig's 7.48%. When Ruth was 26, he hit 38 by the end of July and was hitting HRs at 8.92% clip HR PPA.?

The table below took two iconic seasons for Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Arron Judge, Alex Rodriguez, Lou Gehrig, Reggie Jackson, and Mark McGwire, one season in their prime and the others were older (29-35). In the table are Roger Maris and Giancarlo Stanton's historic single-season campaigns. Usually, younger players outperform their older selves over the course of a season. Only two players had a better HR PPA ratio thru July: Mantle in 1961 when he was 29 and Judge in 2022 at 30.

It's not how you start—it's how you end the season. In 1927, Ruth's youthful teammate Gehrig finished the season's final two months with 12 HRs and a 4.82 HR PPA ratio. He ended the season with a respectable 47 HR for the season. Ruth would hit a gargantuan 26 HRs in Aug and September at a 10.53% HP PPA ratio. He ended the season breaking his record—that record and a threshold that would not be cracked for 34 years. Among the players listed above, only two matched Ruth's August and September totals. In 2017, when Stanton was in his prime, he hit 26 HRs with a 10.32% HR PPA ratio and ended the season with 59 HRs. In 1997, when McGwire was 33, he hit 24 HRs with a 10.71% HR PPA ratio. He ended the season with 58 HRs.??

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Before we address what happened to Stanton and McGuire in 2017 and 1997, I think it's essential to look at what happened to McGuire in his rookie season.?In 1987, McGwire shared a fate very similar to what happened to Gehrig in 1927: After hitting 37 HRs thru the end of July, his production completely fell apart in the last two months.?McGwire’s rookie season was positioned to go where only a few players had been before. Hitting 37 or more HRs?by July and over 54 for the season was something only Babe Ruth (1920, 1921. & 1928), Hank Greenberg (1938), Jimmy Foxx (1932), Mickey Mantle (1961), and Rodger Maris (1961) had accomplished. Babe Ruth is the only player to exceed that 37 HR threshold three times and surpass the 50 HR threshold each time. Among those players, only three had hit 40 HRs by the end of July:

?????????????Ruth hit 41 in 1928 when he was 33 (finished with 54)

?????????????Foxx hit 41 in 1932 when he was 24 (finished with 58)

?????????????Maris hit 40 in 1961 when he was 26 (finished with 61)

Before 1987, it had taken 67 MLB seasons to generate five players over seven seasons to accomplish what McGwire did by July, and those players would go on to hit 54 or more home runs for the season. To illustrate how obscene the steroid era was between 1998 and 2006 (nine seasons), six players matched that feat eight times: Mark McGwire (1998, 1999), Sammy Sosa (1998, 1999), Ken Griffey Jr. (1998), Barry Bonds (2001), Luis Gonzalez (2001) and David Ortiz (2006). Among those steroid-era players, only four players had hit 40 HRs by the end of July:

• Sosa hit 42 in 1998 when he was 29(finished with 66)
• McGwire hit 45 in 1998 when he was 34(finished with 70)
• Sosa hit 40 in 1999 when he was 30 (finished with 62)
• Bonds hit 45 in 2001 when he was 36(finished with 73)
• Gonzalez hit 40 in 2001 when he was 33(finished with 57)

For McGwire, in the summer of 1987, while he shared a similar fate to 24-year-old Gehrig in 1927, in the final two months of 1987, he hit 12 HRs and a 4.88 HR PPA ratio. In 1969, 23-year-old Reggie Jackson hit 40 HRs by the end of July. Reggie's HR PPA was slightly higher than McGwire's 9.37% vs 9.27% through July. Reggie's HR PPA dropped 70% in the last two months. That drop prevented him from breaking the 50 HR threshold—something he would never accomplish in his Hall of Fame (HOF) career.?McGwire would go on to shatter the MLB HR rookie record established by Frank Robinson 31 years earlier in 1956. In 1956, Robinson hit 38 HRs with 667 plate appearances. By July 1987, McGwire had 37 HRs in 395 plate appearances. Looking back, that should have been a red flag to the MLB that something unusual was happening with McGwire.

While it would take over 30 years for two rookie players to enter the major leagues and break the 50 HR threshold, both players dwarfed McGwire's 9.37 HR PPA ratio through July. However, the critical aspect of those historic rookie seasons was their HR PPA ratio consistency. McGwire saw the HR PPA ratio drop 47.9% in the final two months, eerily similar to Al Rosen's rookie season in 1950, where his HR PPA dropped 52.4%. Had McGwire followed Frank Robinson's 1.44% drop, he would have hit 59 or challenged the 60 HR threshold. The real question was whether this experience was something McGwire would draw from later in his career. More importantly, will Arron Judge remain as consistent in the final two months of 2022 as he was in 2017????????

It's a tale of two seasons as to why Stanton (2017) and McGwire (1997) did not crack the 60 HR mark. Stanton was superman in the second half of that season, but his overall HR PPA ratio was well below 8.7%, which is the threshold a player needs to average over a season to cross the 60 HR threshold. Stanton had over 690 plate appearances, but his 33 home runs and 7.5% HR PPA ratio between April and July were well below what a player in his prime had accomplished. If his HR PPA ratio matched the prime average of 8.31%, Stanton would have cracked 62 HRs in 2017. For McGwire, it was not his performance in the second half that kept him from the 60 HR threshold as it did in 1987. This time, the older McGwire faced another obstacle—an injury that kept him from the 690 plate appearance threshold. In the second half of the season, McGwire's HR PPA Ratio of 10.71% was higher than Ruth's 1927 10.53% and Stanton's 10.32%. Ten years later, instead of seeing his HR PPA drop by 48% in the final two months, he increased it by 36%, similar to Ruth's 37% increase in 1927 and what Stanton did in 2017 when he increased by 38%. If McGwire had 39 more plate appearances, he would have cracked 62 HRs.

In the summer of 1961, the New York Yankees had two players chasing Ruth's HR record. At the end of July, Maris had 40 HRs in 435 plate appearances, and Mantle had 39 HRs with 427 plate appearances. Maris was 26, Mantle was 29, and they were hitting HRs with a higher PPA ratio than Ruth did in 1921 and 1927 through the end of July of those perspective seasons. While Mantle outpaced what he had accomplished in his prime (1956) thru July, the second half of 1961 was not as productive; like McGwire in 1997, Mantle suffered from a nagging injury that left him 44 plate appearances shy of the 690 PA threshold. In 1961, Mantle ended the season with an HR PPA ratio of 8.36%.?If Mantle matched Ruth's 1927 HR PPA ratio on 219 PA over the season's last two months, he would have hit 62 HRs. While Mantle was not superman in the second half of the season, Maris was consistent. His 9.2% PPA HR ratio through July surpassed Mantle and what Ruth had accomplished in his prime in 1921 pace. Maris also generated two more critical HRs by the end of July. When Ruth was in his prime, he hit four more HRs (38 vs. 34 in 1927). In 1961, Maris hit 40 with 435 PAs by the end of July.?

In 1927, Ruth hit 34 HRs with a 444 PA. Ruth’s 7.7% HR PPA ratio between April and July is not what led to him cracking the 60 HR threshold. In the last two months of 1927, Ruth was, in essence, chasing himself. He increased his HP PPA ratio by 37.5% in the final two months of 1927-something that would not be seen again until the steroid era; Ruth hit 26 HR with a 247 PA. Ruth's 10.53 HR PPA ratio was a Herculean feat. While several steroid players repeatedly matched that, it only validated how special Ruth was to the game. Outside the stain of the steroid era, that dramatic performance was recently matched by Stanton in 2017. Stanton ended the season with 59 HRs; for Maris in 1961, it was a different story. While Maris was chasing the ghost of Ruth, it came down to math and luck. Unlike Ruth, Maris watched his HR PPA ratio drop 13.2% in the final two months of this season, but like watching the annual MLB HR derby contest during the All-Star Game week. A significant component to the record chase was in place; Maris had 40 HRs through July 1961; all he needed to do was match what Ruth did in his prime in 1921. Ruth hit 21 HRs with 267 plate appearances; in 1961, Maris hit 21 HRs with 263 plate appearances. Maris's HR PPA ratio over the last two months was higher than Ruth's 1921 run. In the end, Maris had seven more plate appearances than Ruth in 1927, but it was Maris's 8.74% HR PPA ratio that pushed him over the top. Ruth might have hit another HR if he had seven more plate appearances.?In the end, the seven additional plate appearances did not justify the asterisk. Maris did not have an iconic career as a home run hitter; he was consistent, healthy, strenuous, and very effective for one magical season.?????

What motivated players to cheat was very likely driven by many factors. The table below illustrates HRs set by age, which unfolded over 58 seasons (1927 to 1985) and was toppled over 10 seasons(1997 to 2007). On average, many of the age records stood for 50 years. It is not hard to see how a few benefited and the astronomical increase in these older players' HR PA. Beyond Rodger Maris losing his single-season record, the MLB allowed several iconic players' records to be diminished, including Henry Aaron's all-time career record.

The chart below compares every 40 HR season from 1920 to 2021 for every player aged between 22 and 39. Among the 350 players who accomplished this feat, 118 (34%) occurred between 1997 to 2007. Between 1920 and 1980, the MLB had, on average, about 20 players hit 40 or more home runs (141 players) each decade. The number of players would increase by 295% in each of these decades the 1990s and 2000s. Over 80 players per season accomplish the same feat (159 players).?The chart clearly illustrated how an older player has significantly increased their home run production per plate appearance.?

The biggest loser was Hank Arron, who witnessed the MLB career home run record fall. It does not take a rocket scientist to see how players like Bond, Thome, Sosa, and McGwire defied logic as their production increased to a level that had not been witnessed since Babe Ruth. As for Ruth, earlier in this article, we discussed that Ruth started his career as a pitcher. You will notice in the chart below that Ruth had a fewer plate appearances compared to the top 12 career home run hitters. Plate appearance is an essential factor: Ruth's PA average was 21% lower than his peers. Ruth’s career HR PA average was 24.07% higher than Hank Aaron’s. If Ruth had an extra 788 PA in his prime, it would have likely yielded another 50 HR career home runs.?

Judge has been on a similar HR trajectory since his rookie season. When Ruth was 25, and in his first season with the Yankees, he hit 54 HRs. Judge would hit 52. And now, as Judge is entering his mature years, he is doing something else that Ruth did: increase his HR PPA ratio.

At the end of the 2022 season, Judge will become a free agent. The open question for anyone looking to pursue him will be how many plate appearances (PA) he has left to justify a lengthy and very likely costly contract.?While Judge is the second fastest in plate appearances to reach 200 career home runs, compared to the top 12 all-time HR hitters, Judge was the oldest when he crossed that threshold. If Judge becomes injury prone, like Griffey, he could be limited to around 2,500 PA; if Judge maintains the average for the players in the top 12 career HR hitters in the table above 3,500 PA, or if Judge plays to 42 like Hank Aaron, he could potentially have another 4,900 PA. If Judge maintains or continues to match the HR PA that Ruth held in his mature years, he could end his career hitting: 375 (injury prone), 450 (average), or 550 (Aaron-like) home runs. Anything above average would be a hall-of-fame caliber. If he matches Hank Aaron's plate appearance, it could be akin to Gehrig, Mantle, or Jackson. In the table below, we compare Judge HR PA to Ruth, Aaron, Mays, Bond, and McGwire. Percentages are shown in red when those players passed the 60 and 70 HR thresholds.?

The table below compares Judge's 2022 season against the top 12 single-season HR seasons. In the table are six seasons from the steroid era. Judge, who is 30, has 42 home runs through July. Most of the players from the non-steroid era were in their prime. The exception was Ruth's 1927 season when he was 32 and hit 60 HRs. As we discussed earlier,?steroids significantly improved the performance of older players. When you look at the players from that era in the table below, you see a few things that stand out. The average age is 33, they hit 10% more HR from April to July, and 17% more from August to September. But the most significant difference was the HR PA change in the last two months. A mature player is historically more consistent than in his prime in the last two months of the season. What these steroid players did collectively was obscene.

To put these extremes in perspective, we reviewed two seasons: prime (age 20 to 28) and mature (29 and older) season for 14 Hall of Fame(HOF) players that played before 1987. The average HR PA between April and July was 7.1% compared to 9.1%. The average change in HR PPA for a HOF?in the last two months was 2.6% vs 18.4%. To normalize these statistical anomalies, I took the average HR PA for the top three HR seasons during the non-steroid era for each age group. For example, the three top HR hitters in their 29s were Mickey Mantle (1961), Ted Kluszewski (1954), and Jose Jose Bautista (2010). Their HR PA from April to July was 7.6% and 8.4% for the last two months. Those averages were applied to the 1999 season for Sosa; his HR total went from 66 to 57.

The most dramatic change happened to the 36-year-old Bonds. Against his clean 36-year-old peers, Bonds HR PA was 58.5% higher. Against the mature average (29-39), Bond’s HR PA was 41.1% higher.?The average difference among the non-steroid leaders against their peers for prime was 16.8% and for mature players, it was 10.5%. The highest clean difference among all the non-steroid leaders versus their peers was 25-year-old Babe Ruth who was 33.2% higher. We also know that 25-year-old Ruth’s HR PA was 14.1% higher than Judge’s 25-year-old average. I don’t buy that when Bond was 36 years old, he bested 25-year-old Ruth’s HR PA ratio by 25.6%.

It's not a coincidence that Bonds is being ignored by the baseball writers, because of that he will not be elected to enter the Baseball Hall of Fame, his mockery of the 2001 season should be stripped from the record books. By taking the top player for each age group, you normalize the typical performance by age, but you are also using the best HR season during the non-steroid era. Now when you compare the adjusted steroid era season, the April to July HR PA performance vs the HOF mature average is similar. Because the three best seasons were selected, the change in HR PA for the last two months was 10% which was higher than the mature HOF average.?

A significant decline in a player's HR PPA ratio in the final two months can make a huge difference. I reviewed two seasons for each player in a case study of 24 players among the top 30 career HR leaders. The players ranged from Ruth (1920s) to Pujols (2010s). Interestingly, patterns and trends were confirmed when we compared a player's average drop during their prime season (age 20 to 28). On average, players in their prime had seen a significant decrease in their HR PPA ratio in the final two months, down about 10%. For players in seasons before 1987, it was -15%, and for players in seasons after 1987, it was -1% drop. The universe of players also included players identified as know steroid abusers. On average, the steroid players in their prime had seen a significant increase in their HR PPA ratio in the final two months, up about 5%. To put that into perspective, the table below highlights a few of these iconic prime seasons where the player had a significant drop in their HR PPA ratio in the final two months. The table also shows what could have happened if these players matched what Aaron Judge did in 2017, and we project how Judge's 2022 season could unfold if he repeats his 2017 feats.

Another interesting observation unfolded when we compared a player's HR PPA ratio during their late season (older than 28). On average, older players had seen a significant increase in their HR PPA ratio in the final two months, up about 5%. For players’ seasons before 1987, it was +3%, and for players’ seasons after 1987, it was an 8% increase. The universe of players also included players now identified as steroid abusers. On average, the steroid players in their prime had seen a significant increase in their HR PPA ratio in the final two months, up about 19%. To put that into perspective, the table below highlights the key seasons for 30-year-old players who hit over 47 home runs in that season. Within the table, we illustrate if Judge matched the 2.42% increase in HR PA in the final two months and how many plate appearances he will need to break Maris’s record.?

What Judge accomplished in 2017 was in the prime of his career. Judge is now five years older and is considered a more senior, seasoned player. The table also shows what could be in store for Judge in 2022. What Judge accomplished is similar to what happened to Frank Robinson in his rookie season. Can Judge again match what Robinson did in 1966 when he was 30? In that season, Robinson boosted his HR PPA in the last two months by 9.95%.??

But what if in the last two months Judge’s HR PA average dropped as Ruth’s did in 1921? Because Judge exceed what Maris accomplished in 1961 between April and July, he would need fewer plate appearances than Maris needed in 1961. This is very similar to what happened to Maris in 1961 when all he needed to do was match what Ruth did in 1921 in the last two months of that season

In 2021, Judge increased his HR PA ratio by over 24.5% in the last two months of the season. The table below shows the scenario of Judge replicating?what Ruth and Stanton did in the last two months. In 1927 and 2017, both players increased their HR PA by over 37% in the last two months. With over 690 plate appearances, Judge could break the 70-home run threshold and potentially break the steroid-ridden single-season record. Please note that the table below has several historic seasons where the players dramatically increase their HR production rate in the last two months. Notice the average age for the group—most of these players were older than Judge; when you remove the steroid-era players, the average is 40.6%. Judge is also fortunate to have the last player to match Ruth’s achievement as a teammate.??

Only one player has hit over 30 HRs in the final two months of the season and crossed the 50 HR threshold. In 1995, Albert Belle hit 31 HRs. Belle was 27 years old and had 12.06% HR PPA over that period. In 2021 and 2017, Judge had 18 HRs in the last 2 months. Since Aug 1, 2021, Judge has hit 60 home runs. He is well positioned to break the American League record. If Judge is going to break the single-season record, he will need to be like Ruth, Hercules, and Superman. While it is in the realm of possibilities, it also highlights why the steroid era records mocked what Maris and Ruth did to break the 60 HR threshold. For baseball fans, watching Judge chase this record will be fun. For baseballistic junkies, it allows us to revisit the need to reassess the absurdity of the records that fell during the steroid era.??????