Jokes, predictions, & AI

"Predictions are hard, especially about the future" - Yogi Berra (maybe)

"Economists predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions" - Paul Samuelson

CNBC talking head Jim Cramer famously had an "Inverse Cramer Index" that bet the opposite of whatever he recommended.

2-3 years go I wasn't in the IT space, but I heard precious little about AI (of the Chat-GPT type). Instead, I heard endless hype about "Web 3.0" and crypto everything. From my uninformed outsider perspective, nobody was predicting AI like we use it today. Then Chat-GPT launch.

Today I hear endless chatter about AI and I'm suspicious about the hype. It feels different this time, since - unlike crypto - I have a practical benefit almost everyday. But still, I haven't seen the promised business transformations yet, in spite of AI's ubiquity. I raise an eyebrow when I hear of an "AI expert", wondering where this person was in 2021... were they talking about Web 3 then? Or was I oblivious?

I suspect the predicted AI revolution is like the Agricultural Revolution of 100+ years ago... dramatically increasing productivity, leading to largely-positive societal reshuffling even while not changing the basic physical biology that plants require dirt and water to grow. I hope AI will remove some mindless work from many people, allowing those people to do something more productive and enjoyable. The question is "to what degree?" ...and for that, I have no idea.