Joining the Dots on College Enrolments and Hybrid Learning

In the ongoing debate about the outlook for college enrolments this fall, two recent surveys – a McKinsey commissioned poll of the intentions of high school seniors and the American Council of Education’s (ACE) latest survey of college presidents – provide some much needed data and the chance to join the dots between what students are thinking and colleges are planning.

According to the McKinsey survey, the impact of Covid-19 is likely to leave the total enrolment of high school seniors largely unchanged, with the 8% who were going to college this fall now not planning to attend largely offset by 7% changing their plans in the opposite direction. What has changed is that 21% of them are now opting for a different first choice in college, choosing to stay in state and/or closer to home. Many of them are also waiting and watching to see what their first-choice colleges will be offering by way of the student experience this fall before they finally commit: 48% of them say they would defer or change college if the teaching that was on offer this fall is “fully remote”.

These students should take comfort from the ACE polling, in which 84% of college presidents say that it is now very or somewhat likely that they will resume in-person classes this fall and 91% say that it is likely or very likely that they will resume on-campus housing. In planning to get students on campus, college presidents say they will deploy a variety of “hybrid” models, of the sort set out by Phil Hill in his recent blog, which combine the best of face-to-face and online learning. 76% of them expect to announce their plans for the fall by the end of June. With students waiting to finally commit until they know what’s on offer, there’s an incentive for the other 24% of college presidents not intending to announce their plans until July or later to bring them forward if they possibly can.

Likewise, the McKinsey survey should give hope to the 66% of college presidents who fear a Covid-19 related drop in enrolments this year, with 36% worrying they could be down by 10% or more. But these presidents will also be concerned that, whilst high school seniors seem determined to go to college this fall if they possibly can, 45% of them are worried about whether, with Covid-19 disrupting their final months at high school, they are emotionally and mentally ready to attend.

This means that colleges are going to have work even harder to engage and support their students. For what was “good enough” in March as many colleges scrambled online at a few days’ notice won’t be good enough this fall. If, as the McKinsey survey suggests is likely, high school seniors are willing to put their trust in colleges accelerating the shift to blended learning – with online education not replacing the in-person variety but complementing it – then all of us involved are going to have raise our game. On Pearson’s part, this makes our major investments in the next generation of digital learning all the more important.

Online teaching is, of course, about much more than moving classroom-based teaching onto a videoconferencing platform. For faculty, online learning done well positively contributes to the course experience, enabling them to spend time with students more effectively with actionable insights. For students, it can provide a more engaging experience, with better outcomes – and, these days, it is more affordable, too. That’s why Pearson, as the world’s leading digital learning company, is reaching out to support colleges across America and around the world – through our digital courseware, but also by helping to build online courses, enhance faculty expertise, and provide extensive student support.

The stakes are high. The students most in need of support will be those from low-income backgrounds who are least well-resourced for learning online. If we succeed, we will have advanced the blended learning model, bringing with it the scale and flexibility to expand higher education to all ages, classes and countries, and giving all of us the chance to top up our education over time and as our changing career needs demand it.