John Mearsheimer as a Commentator of Contemporary European Politics

With Henry Kissinger now - better late than never - announcing that #Ukraine should get back its territory, #JohnMearsheimer of the 美国芝加哥大学 remains the main Western academic apologist for #VladimirPutin's foreign policy. His German fans might want to consider the salience of Mearsheimer's twenty-year-old warning about a resurgent Germany in his 2001 Magnum Opus The Tragedy of Great Power Politics: "Despite Germany's significant military potential, the other European powers should be able to keep it from dominating Europe without help from the United States. The United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Russia together have about three times as many people as Germany, and their combined wealth is roughly three times greater than Germany's. Plus, the United Kingdom, France, and Russia have nuclear weapons, which should be a strong deterrent against an expansionist Germany, even if it has its own nuclear weapons. Yet Europe may not remain peaceful without the American pacifier. Indeed, there is likely to be intense security competition among the great powers, with the ever-present possibility that they might fight among themselves, because upon American withdrawal Europe would go from benign bipolarity to unbalanced multipolarity, the most dangerous kind of power structure. The United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Germany would have to build up their own military forces and provide for their own security. In effect, they would all become great powers, making Europe multi-polar. And as we saw above, Germany would probably become a potential hegemon and thus the main source of trouble in-the new Europe. To illustrate the kind of trouble that might lie ahead, consider how particular German measures aimed at enhancing its security might nevertheless lead to instability. As discussed above, Germany would likely move to acquire its own nuclear arsenal if the United States removed its security umbrella from over western Europe. Not only are nuclear weapons an excellent deterrent, a point widely recognized by Germany's governing elites during the Cold War, but Germany would be surrounded by three nuclear-armed states—the United Kingdom, France, and Russia—leaving it vulnerable to nuclear coercion. During the proliferation process, however, Germany's neighbors would probably contemplate using force to prevent it from going nuclear. Furthermore, without the American military on its territory, Germany would probably increase the size of its army and it certainly would be more inclined to try to dominate central Europe. Why? Germany would fear Russian control of that critically important buffer zone between them, a situation that would directly threaten Germany. Of course, Russia would have the same fear about Germany, which would likely lead to a serious security competition between them for control of central Europe. France would undoubtedly view such behavior by Germany with alarm and take measures to protect itself from Germany. For example, France might increase its defense spending and establish closer relations with Russia. Germany would likely view these actions as hostile and respond with measures of its own."