The Job Market in 2030. Throwing Darts.

My son just turned 17 years old this past week. Where the time has gone is beyond me. It seems like just yesterday that he was born. Crazy.

He is a junior in high school. He is bright, a great athlete and still has not decided what he wants to do over the next few years of his life. At 17 years old, he is not supposed to.

To be honest, those last few sentences I typed were going to say, “He is bright, a great athlete and still has not decided where he wants to go to college. At 17 years old, he is not supposed to.”, however I went back and changed it.

I am not 100% sure that the next stop off after high school needs to be college.

Just a few years ago, I was on a high and mighty horse proclaiming that my boys would be going to Harvard, Stanford, University of Pennsylvania, M.I.T, or one of the other top universities in this country. At the time I believed a superior education is a must-have in today’s day and age and if you want to get anywhere in this life. You need that undergrad and graduate degree from the right institutions. I am no longer convinced of that.

There are thousands of young people coming out of 4-year programs who still have no idea of where they will be in the next few years of their lives. Some of them chose schools and majors that their parents wanted for them so that those very parents could brag that “Chad or Becky” are going to so-and-so university and majoring in finance or pre-med. Meanwhile neither “Chad nor Becky” had very little interest in doing so but their parents were living out their own insecurities through them.

It is nearly impossible to project out what the world itself will look like in 2040. My boy, who is 17 years old today will only be 39 years old at that time. Any person who claims to know what the job market is going to look like in 2040 or even 2030, is throwing darts.

Most university educations focus on teaching a predetermined set of skills. In the case of a career as a doctor or a lawyer I used to believe that the eight to twelve-year education was warranted. History to be read, diseases to be studied, court cases to memorize. So much to learn, However, when you think of both of those professions, they both focus on processing large amounts of information, analyzing it and giving a diagnosis or a legal opinion. Aren’t both of those susceptible to artificial intelligence? What does that college investment look like from an ROI perspective?

Meanwhile neither “Chad nor Becky” had very little interest in doing so but their parents were living out their own insecurities through them.

I find it fascinating that very few people question the massive economic spend on a college education that is clearly a depreciating asset due to the rate of transformation of the world.

When did it become a mandate that one had to go to an expensive university, incur an enormous amount of debt, likely spend four years learning what could have taken 12 months and then get out and take a job that they had no interest in taking but they needed to take it in order to pay off the college debt that they must tend to or else the rest of their lives will be crushed by the credit delinquency that one cannot get caught under.

What are possible alternatives? One possibility is the trades.

Since the beginning of time we have the need to build things. Pyramids, boats, cities, roads, wagons, cars, houses or buildings. Those requires all kinds of skilled trades. The individual contributor who loves their craft and is fulfilled in creating their own work of art in whatever they were part of. The foreman or program manager who has made sure that schedules were being followed, materials were on site and deadlines were being met. The buyers, planners, managers, architects all were part of creating something. 

The owners of these companies often would have themselves started as the tradesperson. Serving an apprenticeship. Learning on the job. Studying how things were done, ways to do it more efficiently and provide even a better service / product and then went out on their own and created a corporation that employed hundreds or even thousands of people.

Any person who claims to know what the job market is going to look like in 2040 or even 2030, is throwing darts.

I am not suggesting that a college education is without value. I also clearly know that a 17-year old needs a high level of guidance as to “what they should think about doing next”. However, there are a lot of people that were forced into a college education because of the pressure or opinion put on them from a family member who they did not want to disappoint. Often times that unwinds in a mess later and declares itself in many unfortunate ways over the years.

I have many close friends who have PhD’s and others with no degrees. Depending on how you keep “score” in the categories of fulfillment, money, gratitude, giving to others, building & creating and just plain leaving this world a better place, they have knocked it out of the park in all aspects of life. What they all have in common is that they did what they wanted to do, listened to their intuitions and and accepted nothing but excellence in their pursuits.

I believe that our intuitions are the most accurate indicators of what we were put on this earth to do. It is up to you whether you follow them now or regret it later.