Job Growth Stinks, Sinks, or Swims

"Boo" The ADP Payroll report, released on Thursday, revealed that U.S. companies added the fewest jobs in August since early 2021. Both stocks and interest rates dropped as a result.

"Uh-oh" The early ADP report indicated that the private sector added just 99,000 new jobs, significantly below the 142,000 average.

"Step-Up" On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its August Jobs Report, showing an increase from the 89,000 in July, but still well below the 12-month average. Once again, stocks and interest rates fell.

"Better News" The BLS Establishment Survey reported that the private sector added 19,000 more jobs than the ADP figure.

"Powerhouse" Private services are the juggernaut driving the U.S. economy. Despite the 108,000 jobs falling below the average, growth remains steady.

"Struggle" On the other hand, goods-producing and manufacturing sectors have been weak throughout this expansion.

"Record-Breaker" Employment is at a record high, with over 161 million Americans currently working.

"Still Hurting" Unfortunately, over 7 million Americans are still unemployed.

"Good News" Sometimes it’s difficult to separate good news from bad amid the media frenzy. But let me make it clear: the unemployment rate is at 4.2%, well below the 70-year average. This is, and continues to be, very good news.

"Comeback" Labor force participation has been a major headline for nearly a generation. The rate was over 67% in 2000, but it declined steadily through COVID. Now, it’s on the rise again—a silver lining

My takeaway from all this is that the doubt and dread will continue to get kicked down the road. Perhaps after the election, job growth could surprise on the upside. Now, wouldn't that be a pleasant surprise for the next incoming president? Even though they had nothing to do with the outcome except to take credit.

—William Corley