Jo Biden - Israel - Saudi Arabia
DEBKAfile, Tel Aviv: UAE opts out of US-planned air defense pact as Biden flies to Jeddah
The United Arab Emirates planted an upset for US President Joe Biden ahead of his arrival in Jeddah on Thursday, July 15 on the second leg of his Mid-East trip after Israel. The plan was for nine Arab rulers to meet him for a unique summit to launch the first US-led regional air defense cooperation pact. However, the UAE, a key member, got in first with a stunning announcement. Anwar Gargash, political adviser to Crown Prince Muhammed bin Zayed said “The United Arab Emirates will not be part of an ‘axis’ against Iran even…?if Tehran’s actions are not helping diplomatic efforts.” He further disclosed, “The UAE is working to send an ambassador to Tehran as it seeks to rebuild bridges with Iran. The idea of a confrontational approach to Tehran is not something Abu Dhabi supported.”
The UAE’s step came after an earlier knock from Amman.?Jordan’s prime minister Bisher al-Khasawneh, told the BBC, “Iran does not threaten Jordan’s national security, Jordan does not treat it as a threat, and is open to developing a healthy relationship with the Islamic Republic.”
Tehran meanwhile responded to the US initiative by establishing its first drone division in the Indian Ocean. Navy Commander, Rear Adm Sharam Irani, did not specify in a statement to Iran’s national TV, how many vessels and drones were involved, except to claim that each ship would carry 50 UAVs (see photo) on its decks. The new force, he said, would enhance Iran’s intelligence-gathering capabilities and attain air superiority in the region.
Iran’s Chief of Staff Brig Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi boasted that day by day Iran grows stronger in the face of America’s “system of domination.”
It looks, therefore, as though a key bolster for regional stability and security, the second priority that President Biden set for his Middle East journey, is wavering. His first priority remained to persuade Saudi Arabia to boost its oil production and alleviate the world’s energy crisis.
The highlight of his two and a half-day Israel trip was the Jerusalem Declaration he signed with Prime Minister Yair Lapid, in which the US vowed to use “all elements in its national power” to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. However, aside from protestations of undying friendship and the unshakable strategic partnership binding the two peoples, the two governments ended the visit at odds on at least two key issues.
In particular, Biden stuck to his guns on diplomacy as the best way to achieve Iran’s nuclear disarmament. Lapid failed to push him into a commitment to act should dialogue fail or endorse the Israeli proposition that nothing but a credible military threat would provide the necessary deterrence.
The president also stood by his belief in a two-state resolution of the Israel-Palestinian conflict, although he admitted it was “not near.”
The only tangible achievement from the Biden trip was the gesture he obtained from Saudi Arabia to open its skies to Israeli carriers, although a breakthrough to normal relations with Riyadh was not in sight.
The US President in fact took the first direct route from Israel to Jeddah on Friday. The talks he faces with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman are likely to be prickly, as they come two years after he denounced MBS as a “pariah over the Kashoggi killing. President Biden has apparently decided to place energy interests ahead of his views on human rights in the oil kingdom.
Saudi ambassador to Washington Remma bint Bandar Al Saud said that the kingdom’s “abhorrence” of the killing cannot define US-Saudi ties. She also dismissed the “oil-for-security paradigm” as “outdated and reductionist.”
Biden to hold talks with Saudi leaders in Jeddah
After denouncing Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman two years ago as a “pariah” over the Kashoggi killing, President Joe Biden will meet him on Friday at his Jeddah palace, having decided to prioritize energy and security interests. Biden is the first US president to fly directly from Israel to an Arab state that doesn’t recognize Israel, after the oil kingdom made the gesture of opening its skies to Israeli carriers during the president’s three-day Israel visit.?Saudi ambassador to Washington Remma bint Bandar Al Saud said that the kingdom’s “abhorrence” of the killing cannot define US-Saudi ties. She also dismissed the “oil-for-security paradigm” as “outdated and reductionist.”
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RUSI: Russia's European Gas Endgame May Hurt Even More than a Total Curtailment
Aura?Sabadus - 12 July 2022
While ending reliance on Russian gas may be difficult for Western allies, failing to do so may allow Russia to inflict more harm in the long term.
Even before its military offensive against Ukraine, Russia was waging war elsewhere – on European natural gas markets.
For more than a year, its state-owned producer, Gazprom, has been reducing supplies to European consumers, helping to lift gas prices to record levels and sparking fears of a looming energy crisis with dire social and political consequences.
Europe may be basking in searing temperatures right now but the hot topic gripping the political agenda is whether Russia will cut the gas completely, leaving consumers to freeze in their homes this winter.
Having seen Gazprom reduce deliveries in June to a fourth of the volumes exported only two years ago, the EU and individual member states are now preparing for the critical scenario where their largest supplier stops flows altogether.
While this may be a possibility, Gazprom's endgame may be even more harmful than an outright curtailment, which would force European buyers to reduce demand drastically and mobilise alternative resources at very short notice.
Gazprom’s behaviour so far suggests that it is intent on inflicting maximum pain while scoring maximum gain, and the best way to do so is to maintain uncertainty by supplying gas at the lowest possible levels.
This creates the impression that Russia is still abiding by its contractual terms but leaves European buyers unable to form a longer-term strategy.
In contrast, Russia's gains are manifold.
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Firstly, the tactic is geared towards breaking Western unity.
Earlier in June, Russia reduced gas supplies to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 60%, claiming it could not deliver more volumes since one of the turbines required to pump gas via the subsea corridor could not be returned from repairs in Canada because of international sanctions.
Experts?said ?the pipeline could operate without the turbine and that the excuse was just another act of Russian blackmail.
Gazprom’s behaviour so far suggests that it is intent on inflicting maximum pain while scoring maximum gain
At the same time, the Ukrainian diaspora in Canada?urged Ottawa ?not to return the turbine, while the Ukrainian gas transmission system operator, GTSOU, insisted Gazprom could offset the shortfall by ramping up supplies via its own system, whose shipping capacity is bigger than that of Nord Stream 1.
Despite the pressure, Canada's minister of natural resources said on 10 July that the turbine would be returned to Germany to support ‘Europe's ability to access reliable and affordable energy’.
Exactly how reliable those supplies are likely to be will become clear later in July, when Nord Stream 1 is expected to complete a 10-day planned maintenance starting on 11 July.
It is unknown what Gazprom's intentions are once the maintenance period is over, but one thing is certain: the turbine affair helped to sow division between Ukraine and its Western allies.
Reducing gas supplies also brings in handsome profits, because every decrease in gas supply is followed by a rise in prices.
Gazprom has been limiting deliveries to Europe since last year.
At first, it declined to supply more volumes despite rising post-pandemic demand. Then, it decided to keep the storage facilities it operates in Central Europe empty even as the heating season was approaching.
By December, it was sending fewer volumes than those that had been contracted by European buyers, despite claims by some observers that Gazprom was a reliable partner.
The strategy paid off, helping the company?to rake in ?a net profit of 2.09 trillion rubles ($29 billion) in 2021 – enough to make up for the meagre revenue of 2020, which stood at 135 billion rubles.
Gazprom continued in the same vein following the invasion of Ukraine but even more brazenly than before, cutting gas supplies to countries or companies which refused to comply with a Kremlin-dictated ruble payment scheme.
Under the mechanism introduced at the end of March, buyers were expected to switch away from Western banks and open accounts in foreign currencies and rubles with the Russian-owned Gazprombank.
Russia's tactics have so far paid off, but may backfire in the long term if Europe proves brave enough to pull the plug on its addiction to Russian gas
Just like the turbine excuse, the scheme sowed division among allies because some Western buyers decided to pay despite earlier questions about its legality. It also helped to push up prices, which increased by 5–7% each time Gazprom suspended flows to countries or companies opposing it.
This meant that even though Russian gas supplies were 30% lower year-on-year between the start of the war and the end of June 2022, Gazprom has?raked in around €30 billion ?in gas exports since the end of February.
What is probably more important to Russia is to paralyse Europe's ability to store gas, in order to deepen its vulnerability to more blackmail later this winter.
Under newly introduced EU rules, storage facilities across member states need to be 80% full by 1 November. At the start of June, injections had ramped up, lifting them above the five-year average.
As prices soared once again when Gazprom reduced supplies to Germany via Nord Stream 1, injections slowed down, sparking concerns that member states may not be able to meet mandated targets.
Only a month earlier, Gazprom had reduced the transit via Ukraine to 40% of contractual volumes, taking advantage of a decision by the country's grid operator, GTSOU, to declare force majeure at one of the compressor stations in the east of the country.
The operator stopped the transit via the eastern Sokhranivka entry point amid suspicions that Russian occupants were stealing transit gas, offering instead to reroute the inflows via another interconnector under Ukrainian control. Gazprom not only ignored the proposal but also diminished the amount of gas that was supposed to enter via this point.
Russia's political manoeuvring has helped to create so much volatility on markets that it has been impossible to predict price movements from one day to another, let alone to plan for the weeks and months ahead.
Its tactics have so far paid off, but may backfire in the long term if Europe proves brave enough to pull the plug on its addiction to Russian gas.
The sooner European buyers recognise Russia for what it is – an untrustworthy partner – and make arrangements for alternative supplies, the more harmful it will be to Russia’s upstream gas sector, which will struggle to find a market for its stranded output in the short to medium term.
A production shut-in may also deal a devastating blow as some of Russia’s fields, forced to ramp down, may never recover again.
The views expressed in this Commentary are the author’s, and do not represent those of RUSI or any other institution.
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