Jharkhand's political battleground

In a recent political switch, Champai Soren, the former Chief Minister of Jharkhand and a prominent pillar of the JMM, has joined the BJP. Soren, popularly known as 'Tiger' due to his strong tribal leadership, brings a clean image and a history of fighting for Jharkhand’s statehood. As a close confidant of JMM patriarch Shibu Soren, Champai played a crucial role in the movement to create Jharkhand state from Bihar.

His switch to the BJP is expected to have far reaching consequences, particularly as the party seeks to weaken the hold of the INDIA bloc, a coalition of the JMM, INC, and the RJD on the state's influential ST vote bank. With this move, the BJP is aiming to capitalize on tribal discontent and improve its chances of regaining power in Jharkhand, where the Hemant Soren government is facing anti-incumbency and criticism over unfulfilled promises.

Tribal leadership in BJP's end:

Champai Soren's political significance goes beyond being a former Chief Minister. He was appointed the state's top post earlier this year after Hemant Soren’s arrest by the ED in Feb 2024. During his tenure, he helped the INDIA bloc secure five of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Jharkhand, a notable improvement from the last general election. The opposition alliance's strong performance, particularly in ST-reserved seats, underscored the tribal community's dissatisfaction with Hemant's arrest.

Although the INDIA bloc's vote share rose to 37%, up by 5 percentage points, the BJP-led NDA still held a larger 48% share, despite seeing its support dip by 8%. The losses led to internal questioning of the BJP’s leadership in Jharkhand, particularly targeting former Chief Ministers Babulal Marandi and Arjun Munda. In this context, Champai Soren’s entry into the BJP ranks fills the party’s need for a prominent tribal face to lead its campaign and connect with the ST communities.

What went wrong with Champai:

Champai Soren’s departure from the JMM seems rooted in personal and political grievances. After Hemant Soren's release from custody, Champai was unceremoniously asked to step down as Chief Minister, a move that reportedly stung the 'Tiger'. The JMM, born from the fight for a separate Jharkhand, has, like many regional parties, evolved into a family dominated entity over the years, which may have fueled Champai’s decision to seek a new political slide.

With ST voters comprising 26.2% of Jharkhand's population and holding sway over 28 reserved seats, tribal votes are critical to any party’s success in the state. 16 of these seats are located in the Santhal Pargana and Kolhan regions, areas where the BJP has struggled. In 2019, the BJP managed to win just two of the 28 ST seats, a steep drop from its 11 seat haul in 2014. The INDIA bloc’s clean sweep in these regions was a major factor in the BJP’s defeat in the last assembly elections.

Champai’s roots in the Kolhan region, which includes East Singhbhum, West Singhbhum, and Saraikela districts, gives the BJP hope. Kolhan, home to the industrial town of Jamshedpur, saw the BJP win five of its 14 seats in the 2014 elections, but the party failed to win a single seat in the following assembly elections. By bringing Champai into its fold, the BJP hopes to regain lost ground in Kolhan and across the state by appealing to both ST and non-tribal voters.

Tough battle in Jharkhand:

The battle is expected to be fiercely contested. Of the four states holding assembly elections in 2024 Jharkhand, Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra, and Haryana. Jharkhand is the only one where the BJP is not in power. The BJP’s weaker constituencies are concentrated in Santhal Pargana and Kolhan, where Champai’s influence could be key. The sizable Kurmi population in Kolhan, disillusioned with the JMM due to unmet demands for inclusion in the ST category, adds another layer of complexity.

The emergence of Jairam Mahato’s Jharkhandi Bhasha Khatian Sangharsh Samiti (JBKSS) further complicates matters. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the JBKSS played a spoiler by splitting opposition votes, which ultimately benefited the BJP. The party got over 1.25 lakh votes across three seats, raising the stakes for the assembly election.

A keen battle is on the cards. With Champai's entry into the BJP, will he secure a victory for the party?